New Gallup Poll: Ron Paul 3rd: 13%

[JTforRP]

Not gonna backread this entire thread and I'm sure it's been tossed out there, but how the FUCK is there this big of a difference between Gallup and PPP? What happened to the minor sampling error? PPP's results show Paul as a complete after-thought in like 75th place. And here he is in 3rd with great favorables. I just don't get it.

 

[parocks]

Yes, we need to work on the senior's vote. But....

An easier and better strategy would be to DOUBLE the amount of voters from the 18-29 group where Dr. Paul does best. There is a lot of voter apathy in that group. So if we can get at least twice as many to show up at the polls, I believe that can put Dr. Paul over the top.

We need to do voter registration.

****************************

Iowa City, Iowa.

university of Iowa

Students 30,328
Undergraduates 20,574
Postgraduates 9,754


Ames, Iowa

Iowa State University

Students 28,682 (Fall 2010)
Undergraduates 23,104 (Fall 2010)
Postgraduates 4,991 (Fall 2010)

iowa caucus results 2008
Republicans
40 unpledged delegates
Candidate Vote % Delegates
Mike Huckabee 40,841 34.4% 0
Mitt Romney 29,949 25.2 0
Fred D. Thompson 15,904 13.4 0
John McCain 15,559 13.1 0
Ron Paul 11,817 10.0 0
Rudolph W. Giuliani4,097 3.5 0
Duncan Hunter 524 0.4 0
Tom Tancredo 5 0.0 0

 

[asurfaholic]

This is really good news. I've been walking around in a bad mood since I heard the bad numbers from PPP. This really brightens my day. Now I can eat cheese cake and smile.

 

[trey4sports]

Yes, we need to work on the senior's vote. But....

An easier and better strategy would be to DOUBLE the amount of voters from the 18-29 group where Dr. Paul does best. There is a lot of voter apathy in that group. So if we can get at least twice as many to show up at the polls, I believe that can put Dr. Paul over the top.

Young people don't vote. Period. Target those who vote, which is the senior crowd.

 

[kylejack]

Young people don't vote. Period. Target those who vote, which is the senior crowd.

51.1% of 18-29 voted in 2008. Sure, 30 and up is 67%, but there's still plenty of young voters to mine.

 

[parocks]

Young people don't vote. Period. Target those who vote, which is the senior crowd.

Old people don't like Ron Paul, young people do.

One of the polls yesterday had Ron Paul at 38% 18-29.

The easiest thing would be just to lose.

Our support is young people. We have to register them and get them to the polls. Either that, or lose.

 

[Paul4Prez]

51.1% of 18-29 voted in 2008. Sure, 30 and up is 67%, but there's still plenty of young voters to mine.

I agree. It's easier to remind/get people who already like you to go to the polls than to change people's minds.
One is a logistical problem that can be solved. The other is a philosophical problem. This is not a standard campaign; this is a revolution. Young people lead revolutions.

 

[parocks]

I am beginning to think Perry could be unstoppable. Something has to be done to neutralize him.

Negative Ads from RevPac?

 

[Napoleon's Shadow]

Yep. Now it's time to tell the truth on Perry. A candidate who tried to force little girls to take an experimental STD vaccine and who got an award from a Mexican president for his efforts to help illegal immigrants shouldn't even be in the running for a GOP primary.

I think one of his appointees was on the board of Merck, the mfg of that particular drug, Gardasil. But don't take my word for it, do your own research.

 

[parocks]

I agree. It's easier to remind/get people who already like you to go to the polls than to change people's minds.
One is a logistical problem that can be solved. The other is a philosophical problem. This is not a standard campaign; this is a revolution. Young people lead revolutions.

They need to be registered to vote. It's reaching the point where we don't have to persuade anybody. I mentioned elsewhere that there are more students in Iowa and Iowa State University than Huckabee (who won) got in the Iowa caucuses in 2008.

 

[trey4sports]

51.1% of 18-29 voted in 2008. Sure, 30 and up is 67%, but there's still plenty of young voters to mine.

historically the youth don't show up to vote. If you think it will magically happen then your in denial.

Old people don't like Ron Paul, young people do.

One of the polls yesterday had Ron Paul at 38% 18-29.

The easiest thing would be just to lose.

Our support is young people. We have to register them and get them to the polls. Either that, or lose.

Ron can tighten up his message to attract the elderly.

The choice is either emphasize parts of the platform in order to attract the older vote or try to attract a demographic that based on empirical evidence simply doesn't show up to the polls.

Trying to win a presidential nomination (in the GOP nontheless) based on young voters is something an amateur campaign would do. You may not like that we have to try and attract the older vote but that is reality.

I agree. It's easier to remind/get people who already like you to go to the polls than to change people's minds.
One is a logistical problem that can be solved. The other is a philosophical problem. This is not a standard campaign; this is a revolution. Young people lead revolutions.

Standard polling proved that in order to do well you have to run a standard campaign and do all the mundane things every other politician has to do. You may fool yourself into believing that Ron can magically reinvent the wheel of political campaigning but you can't fool reality.

 

[kylejack]

historically the youth don't show up to vote. If you think it will magically happen then your in denial.

Perhaps what you meant to say is that youth turnout is lower than turnout in other demographics. If that's what you meant to say, you're correct, as I acknowledged. Still, their lower turnout is still a lot of people that we can persuade, and who are already sympathetic to our messages.

Here's a PDF on turnout: http://www.civicyouth.org/PopUps/FactSheets/FS_youth_Voting_2008_updated_6.22.pdf

The choice is either emphasize parts of the platform in order to attract the older vote or try to attract a demographic that based on empirical evidence simply doesn't show up to the polls.

This is known as the False Dilemma Fallacy. We can pursue both groups of voters with different messaging. And we should.

 

[pauliticalfan]

Three things here.

1) I love how the month after Bachmann wins Ames, she drops to fourth and we surge ahead of her. Good news there.

2) I honestly feel like PPP has a personal grudge against RP and his supporters. They CONSTANTLY have him way farther back than other pollsters, and make rude/demoralizing comments about Paul. Take PPP polls that have Ron's numbers low with a grain of salt. The fact that they have him at 16% in Iowa, though, means he could possibly be higher. Again, encouraging.

3) Ron Paul is a front runner. Period.

 

[klamath]

look at the break down....40% of the people 65 plus vote for perry and 4% for Paul.

18-29 years of age...21% for Perry 29% for Paul.

Going off on a little RANT HERE....for anyone 65 plus...not to be mean...just telling it as it is...odds say you don't have that much longer to live...WHY ARE YOU DESTROYING THE WORLD FOR US YOUNG ADULTS....

They are the worst to talk to because they are so self centered and want everything given to them for the most part (of course there is some that don't)
Wake up and realize for the most part the 18-29 year old group has the most to worry about...we are the ones that have to pay off all of this debt and get us out of this mess you helped make...BUT YET YOU VOTE FOR PERRY....

GOD HELP THIS COUNTRY.

God help us the young people are going to vote obama again as shown by the other poll as they vote in a majority for Obama.

 

[trey4sports]

Perhaps what you meant to say is that youth turnout is lower than turnout in other demographics. If that's what you meant to say, you're correct, as I acknowledged. Still, their lower turnout is still a lot of people that we can persuade, and who are already sympathetic to our messages.

Here's a PDF on turnout: http://www.civicyouth.org/PopUps/FactSheets/FS_youth_Voting_2008_updated_6.22.pdf

Obviously, some youth, somewhere will vote.

This is known as the False Dilemma Fallacy. We can pursue both groups of voters with different messaging. And we should.

you believe whatever you like.

The empirical evidence suggests that building a winning campaign (especially in an old-white-male GOP) is going to be dependent on winning the old-vote which is by far the largest demographic in the GOP. Sure, we can sit around and sing Kumbaya and stress the importance of reaching all voters but that is useful for little more than morale. The old, white voter is still the largest voting block in the GOP by far.

Historically the youth have accounted for anywhere from 8 - 11% even at the highest point (11%) you're still looking at only 11 percent!

 

[kylejack]

8-11% is a major important piece in a field with more than 2 candidates, as in a primary. If half of the youth are showing up at the polls, we want them on our side.

 

[BlackTerrel]

Saw this earlier today. Don't let anyone fool you. This is HUGE. Striking distance of Romney now.

The field is wide open between the four in the lead now. And I see both Bachmann and Romney moving backwards.

 

[parocks]

you believe whatever you like.

The empirical evidence suggests that building a winning campaign (especially in an old-white-male GOP) is going to be dependent on winning the old-vote which is by far the largest demographic in the GOP. Sure, we can sit around and sing Kumbaya and stress the importance of reaching all voters but that is useful for little more than morale. The old, white voter is still the largest voting block in the GOP by far.

Historically the youth have accounted for anywhere from 8 - 11% even at the highest point (11%) you're still looking at only 11 percent!

What do all the elections in the Gallup graphic have in common?

They're all off-year, non Presidential elections.

We are volunteers (or grassroots, if you prefer). Where we should shine is in our ability to move people to the polls.
There are a lot of us. We don't make the TV commercials, we don't do the persuading. That's what the campaign does.

And what the campaign has done is make Ron Paul popular with the young, not so much with the old.

So, we know who our voters are. It's up to US to get them to the polls.

If our voters were old, we'd be in nursing homes. They're not. They're young. There are huge buildings where hundreds and hundreds of our voters live.
They're called "dorms". Make sure everyone in the dorms is registered Republican, and then on election day, make sure they vote.

 

[AlexAmore]

Would be amazing to see Ron Paul get past Romney. That alone should give us another boost. Then Rick Perry peters out just like Bachmann and now Romney.

Is it possible to have some sort of bus show up to universities that has a big call to action sign to come vote on the day of voting? Think about the students who don't have cars and easy transportation. Obviously they take buses to school and back but I've seen none to voting places. I might be wrong. I never went to a university.

 

[parocks]

What do all the elections in the Gallup graphic have in common?

They're all off-year, non Presidential elections.

We are volunteers (or grassroots, if you prefer). Where we should shine is in our ability to move people to the polls.
There are a lot of us. We don't make the TV commercials, we don't do the persuading. That's what the campaign does.

And what the campaign has done is make Ron Paul popular with the young, not so much with the old.

So, we know who our voters are. It's up to US to get them to the polls.

If our voters were old, we'd be in nursing homes. They're not. They're young. There are huge buildings where hundreds and hundreds of our voters live.
They're called "dorms". Make sure everyone in the dorms is registered Republican, and then on election day, make sure they vote.

I was looking at the 2008 data from the earlier link. in 2008 - 18-29 were 17.1% of the total votes. not 8, not 11. That was a midterm.