New FOX Polls today IA/NH, Rand is UP

[CPUd]

Here is the FBN release about the last debate:

TO: Those Concerned
FROM: The FOX News Decision Desk
DATE: Monday, January 11, 2016
RE: Participant List for the January 14, 2016
FOX Business Network Republican Presidential Primary Debate

As was previously announced, the 9:00 PM/ET FBN debate will feature the top Republican candidates based on the latest national, Iowa and New Hampshire polling. To qualify, a candidate needs to be either among the top six in an average of the five most recent national polls, or among the top five in an average of the five most recent Iowa or New Hampshire polls. The candidates achieving that are, in order: Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, and John Kasich.

The 6:00 PM/ET debate will feature candidates who, while not hitting that threshold, received a minimum 1% support as determined by at least one of the most recent national polls. The following achieve that: Rand Paul, Carly Fiorina, Mike Huckabee, and Rick Santorum.

The six* polls used in the national average were conducted by the following
organizations: Investor’s Business Daily/TIPP, FOX News, CNN/ORC, Quinnipiac University, ABC News/Washington Post, and Monmouth University. All were conducted within the last month (the earliest were completed December 13.) *Six were used rather than five because the earliest two polls were done concurrently.

The six* polls used in the Iowa average were conducted by the following organizations: American Research Group, Quinnipiac University, FOX News, NBC News/WSJ/Marist, Loras College, and The Des Moines Register/Bloomberg. *Six were used rather than five because the earliest two polls were done concurrently.

The five polls used in the New Hampshire average were conducted by the following organizations: Monmouth University, American Research Group, FOX News, NBC News/WSJ/Marist, and Franklin Pierce/Boston Herald.

With respect to our criteria for which polls were used to determine inclusion …

- They are the most recent national and state polls from non-partisan, nationally-recognized organizations using standard methodological techniques. Recency was determined by actual interview dates (not release date).

- We only used the most recent results from a particular survey organization so that no single pollster dominates the calculation of averages.

- They used live interviewers, included both landlines and cellphones, and employed either random digit-dial or registration-based sampling methodologies. No online or automated (IVR) polls were used.

Some additional points to note …

- Results among registered voters were used rather than adult results when available.

- Only results among either 1) self-identified Republican primary voters or 2) Republican and Republican-leaning voters were used.

-The rank order was determined by a simple arithmetic average of publicly available results. Averages were rounded to the nearest tenth of a percentage point.

 

[Jlasoon]

You guys should see the internal Ipsos numbers flashing across the screen. If Trump wins the nomination - Hillary has to defend 6 solid 'Blue States'. This is crazy! I haven't seen this in a long time.

 

[SilentBull]

How convenient that they never said which polls they will consider. For the first Fox Business debate they only considered 4 polls. Not even CNN was listed. I don't think they've ever used Loras, Gravis or KBUR before. If they exclude those, Rand has a real shot at making it in the debate unless they cheat.

 

[CPUd]

You guys should see the internal Ipsos numbers flashing across the screen. If Trump wins the nomination - Hillary has to defend 6 solid 'Blue States'. This is crazy! I haven't seen this in a long time.

Nobody cares about what flashes across the screens in your head.

 

[CPUd]

How convenient that they never said which polls they will consider. For the first Fox Business debate they only considered 4 polls. Not even CNN was listed. I don't think they've ever used Loras, Gravis or KBUR before. If they exclude those, Rand has a real shot at making it in the debate unless they cheat.

They used Loras for the last one. They definitely won't use Gravis or PPP. See the press release I posted in the other thread.

 

[sam1952]

Maybe wishful thinking on my part but I believe they will include him in the next debate. Imagine if he's not included and he does better than three or four of the candidates in the debate in Iowa. Guess they will look pretty silly and prove the polls are BS. Giving precedence to all future candidates that the requirements for qualification are as worthless as the polls.

Seriously if they exclude him and he does well it will only strengthen his campaign and discredit them.

 

[luctor-et-emergo]

How convenient that they never said which polls they will consider. For the first Fox Business debate they only considered 4 polls. Not even CNN was listed. I don't think they've ever used Loras, Gravis or KBUR before. If they exclude those, Rand has a real shot at making it in the debate unless they cheat.

What makes you think they wouldn't cheat ? Using polls to determine debate rankings is cheating already.

Just think back a couple of months. The Ames straw poll was cancelled. Why ? Pretty obvious now, isn't it ?

 

[CPUd]

Maybe wishful thinking on my part but I believe they will include him in the next debate. Imagine if he's not included and he does better than three or four of the candidates in the debate in Iowa. Guess they will look pretty silly and prove the polls are BS. Giving precedence to all future candidates that the requirements for qualification are as worthless as the polls.

Seriously if they exclude him and he does well it will only strengthen his campaign and discredit them.

A few more Iowa ones like this and he will get in, but there have already been a slew of Iowa polls released in the past week. There may be more since this is the last week before the caucus.

 

[Jlasoon]

Nobody cares about what flashes across the screens in your head.

You do realize that being delusional is mental disorder - right?

 

[Anti-Neocon]

Here is the FBN release about the last debate:

Thanks. KBUR uses robo-polls for land line and then a few live interviews for cell phones. I would think that they do not qualify, because the large majority are robo-polled.

Gravis wasn't used in there when they had the option to, but Loras was.

So that means:
FOX News - Paul 6, Bush 4
CNN - Paul 2, Bush 3
*KBUR - Paul 3, Bush 7
Loras - Paul 3, Bush 6
DMR - Paul 5, Bush 4
ARG - Paul 4, Bush 3

With KBUR, ARG isn't included and you get Paul 3.8, Bush 4.8
Without KBUR, ARG is included and you get Paul 4.0, Bush 4.0

 

[01000110]

rcp average IA

[TABLE="class: data large, width: 859"]
[TR="class: header"]
[TH="class: noCenter, bgcolor: #000000"]Poll[/TH]
[TH="class: date, bgcolor: #000000"]Date[/TH]
[TH="class: sample, bgcolor: #000000"]Sample[/TH]
[TH="class: diag, bgcolor: #000000"]Trump [/TH]
[TH="class: diag, bgcolor: #000000"]Cruz [/TH]
[TH="class: diag, bgcolor: #000000"]Rubio [/TH]
[TH="class: diag, bgcolor: #000000"]Carson [/TH]
[TH="class: diag, bgcolor: #000000"]Bush [/TH]
[TH="class: diag, bgcolor: #000000"]Paul [/TH]
[TH="class: diag, bgcolor: #000000"]Christie [/TH]
[TH="class: diag, bgcolor: #000000"]Huckabee [/TH]
[TH="class: diag, bgcolor: #000000"]Kasich [/TH]
[TH="class: diag, bgcolor: #000000"]Fiorina [/TH]
[TH="class: diag, bgcolor: #000000"]Santorum [/TH]
[TH="class: spread, bgcolor: #000000"]Spread[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR="class: rcpAvg"]
[TD="class: noCenter, bgcolor: #F0DF6B"]RCP Average[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F0DF6B, align: center"]1/13 - 1/21[/TD]
[TD="class: sample, bgcolor: #F0DF6B, align: center"]--[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F0DF6B, align: center"]32.2[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F0DF6B, align: center"]27.0[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F0DF6B, align: center"]12.2[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F0DF6B, align: center"]7.4[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F0DF6B, align: center"]4.2[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F0DF6B, align: center"]3.4[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F0DF6B, align: center"]2.8[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F0DF6B, align: center"]2.4[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F0DF6B, align: center"]2.2[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F0DF6B, align: center"]1.6[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F0DF6B, align: center"]1.2[/TD]
[TD="class: spread, bgcolor: #F0DF6B, align: center"]Trump +5.2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: isInRcpAvg"]
[TD="class: noCenter, bgcolor: #F5F5F5"]FOX News[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F5F5F5, align: center"]1/18 - 1/21[/TD]
[TD="class: sample, bgcolor: #F5F5F5, align: center"]378 LV[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F5F5F5, align: center"]34[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F5F5F5, align: center"]23[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F5F5F5, align: center"]12[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F5F5F5, align: center"]7[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F5F5F5, align: center"]4[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F5F5F5, align: center"]6[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F5F5F5, align: center"]4[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F5F5F5, align: center"]2[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F5F5F5, align: center"]2[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F5F5F5, align: center"]1[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F5F5F5, align: center"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: spread, bgcolor: #F5F5F5, align: center"]Trump +11[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: alt isInRcpAvg"]
[TD="class: noCenter"]CBS News/YouGov[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]1/18 - 1/21[/TD]
[TD="class: sample, align: center"]492 LV[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]39[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]34[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]13[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: spread, align: center"]Trump +5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: isInRcpAvg"]
[TD="class: noCenter, bgcolor: #F5F5F5"]CNN/ORC[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F5F5F5, align: center"]1/15 - 1/20[/TD]
[TD="class: sample, bgcolor: #F5F5F5, align: center"]266 LV[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F5F5F5, align: center"]37[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F5F5F5, align: center"]26[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F5F5F5, align: center"]14[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F5F5F5, align: center"]6[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F5F5F5, align: center"]3[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F5F5F5, align: center"]2[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F5F5F5, align: center"]1[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F5F5F5, align: center"]3[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F5F5F5, align: center"]1[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F5F5F5, align: center"]1[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F5F5F5, align: center"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: spread, bgcolor: #F5F5F5, align: center"]Trump +11[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: alt isInRcpAvg"]
[TD="class: noCenter"]KBUR[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]1/18 - 1/19[/TD]
[TD="class: sample, align: center"]687 LV[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]25[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]27[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]9[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]11[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]7[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: spread, align: center"]Cruz +2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: isInRcpAvg"]
[TD="class: noCenter, bgcolor: #F5F5F5"]Loras College[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F5F5F5, align: center"]1/13 - 1/18[/TD]
[TD="class: sample, bgcolor: #F5F5F5, align: center"]500 LV[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F5F5F5, align: center"]26[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F5F5F5, align: center"]25[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F5F5F5, align: center"]13[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F5F5F5, align: center"]8[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F5F5F5, align: center"]6[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F5F5F5, align: center"]3[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F5F5F5, align: center"]3[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F5F5F5, align: center"]3[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F5F5F5, align: center"]4[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F5F5F5, align: center"]2[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F5F5F5, align: center"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: spread, bgcolor: #F5F5F5, align: center"]Trump +1[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

All Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus Polling Data​

 

[jonhowe]

So tied for 6th in IA? So we need to move past Bush to get in?

 

[Anti-Neocon]

So tied for 6th in IA? So we need to move past Bush to get in?

Read my last post. We are probably tied for 5th now, which would (I hope) put us in.

 

[01000110]

Just looking at the RCP averages alone, if they exclude Rand and keep Christie and Kasich in then it's all a damn joke.

 

[kbs021]

Thanks anti neocon! This is freaking huge news!

 

[CPUd]

Check the CBS/YouGov Iowa just released, Rand polls 3%, but Bush polls 1%, this would get him in if they use it.
https://www.scribd.com/doc/296490961/CBS-News-Battleground-Tracker-Iowa-January-2016

 

[Anti-Neocon]

Check the CBS/YouGov Iowa just released, Rand polls 3%, but Bush polls 1%, this would get him in if they use it.
https://www.scribd.com/doc/296490961/CBS-News-Battleground-Tracker-Iowa-January-2016

It's online. They excluded online from last one.

 

[CPUd]

I don't see them using the CBS/YouGov or KBUR either. Note that if they don't use any in the "last 5" that are currently making the RCP average, excluding also Gravis and PPP, they would use DMR/Bloomberg and ARG, both where Rand polled higher than Bush.

 

[randomname]

Just looking at the RCP averages alone, if they exclude Rand and keep Christie and Kasich in then it's all a damn joke.

Christie and Kasich are still polling better than Rand in NH (top 5?)

 

[CPUd]

LOL now we want them to stop releasing Iowa polls, because as of now, Rand is most likely in.