New CNN/WMUR New Hampshire Poll

[Robrank]

Polled via land line and cell phone from 17-23 September. 820 adults polled, 344 said they plan to vote in the GOP Primary, results of the 344 who plan to vote in the GOP Primary:

# Name..................SEP Poll........JUN Poll......Change
1. Donald Trump........26%..............11%...........+15
2. Carly Fiorina ...........16%............. 6% ........ +10
3. Marco Rubio ........... 9% ..............6% ......... +3
4. Ben Carson ............. 8%.............. 5%......... +3
5. Jeb Bush ................ 7%.............. 16%........ -9
6. John Kasich ...............7%.............. 2%........ +5
7. Chris Christie.............. 5%.............. 5% ........ 0
8. Ted Cruz ................... 5% ...............3%...... +2
9. Rand Paul .................. 3% ............ 9%...... -6
10. Lindsey Graham............ 1%.............. 1%...... 0
11. Jim Gilmore................... 1%.............. 0% .... +1
12. Bobby Jindal.................. 0%.............. * ....... *
13. Mike Huckabee................*................ 2%..... -2
14. Rick Santorum .................*................0% ...... *
15. George Pataki ..................* ............... 1% ....-1
---------------------------------------------------
Not Sure...............................11%............. 21%... -1

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2015/images/09/24/cnnorcrepublicans2016newhampshire.pdf

 

[01000110]

Good grief.

 

[Liberty74]

Horrible but who did they poll? What party affiliation? You have to have the correct mix of Rep to Indy to get a true picture. I think it's about 80/20 or 70/30 give or take. Can't recall exactly off the top of my head for NH.

 

[luctor-et-emergo]

Horrible but who did they poll? What party affiliation? You have to have the correct mix of Rep to Indy to get a true picture. I think it's about 80/20 or 70/30 give or take. Can't recall exactly off the top of my head for NH.

Conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center
Interviews with 820 adults in New Hampshire conducted by land line and cellular telephone on September 17-23, 2015 including 344 who say they plan to vote in the Republican presidential primary and 314 respondents who say they plan to vote in the Democratic presidential primary. The margin of sampling error for results based on Republican primary voters is plus or minus 5.3 percentage points and for results based on Democratic primary voters is plus or minus 5.5 percentage points.

Pretty big margin of error and small sample size.

 

[freejack]

Trump is gonna be the nominee. The GOP electorate has gone full retard.

 

[mit26chell]

Yikes. Trump's definitely not being hurt by anything in the media. Paul continues to dwindle.

 

[Liberty74]

Yikes. Trump's definitely not being hurt by anything in the media. Paul continues to dwindle.

Paul is still in the game.

Check out Huck and I bet he is one of the first top tier candidates to call it quits.

 

[Liberty74]

Trump is gonna be the nominee. The GOP electorate has gone full retard.

Not a chance. In a race full of candidates he has a chance but those candidates will dwindle to maybe 6 by Iowa/HN and maybe 2 or 3 after that. Trump loses big time when he is matched up except for Bush that we know of. Trump support is peaked in the 30 percentile range with one to one match ups.

I still say he will implode. Might take an extra month than I thought because there are about 15 less debates this time than last per the GOP rules.

 

[jj-]

In a race full of candidates he has a chance but those candidates will dwindle to maybe 6 by Iowa/HN and maybe 2 or 3 after that. Trump loses big time when he is matched up except for Bush that we know of. Trump support is peaked in the 30 percentile range with one to one match ups.

Why wouldn't some candidates stay to keep the field divided in exchange of something?

 

[CPUd]

Trump is gonna be the nominee. The GOP electorate has gone full retard.

Fake Conservative Trump's campaign of terror is falling apart. He got booed earlier today for mocking Rubio, and is taking it out on the media when they show all the empty seats:

 

[69360]

Yikes. Trump's definitely not being hurt by anything in the media. Paul continues to dwindle.

The media hasn't even touched his shady business deals or his bimbos. Trump has completely got a pass. They will hold out until a week before the IA caucus and Gloria Allred will parade out a crying bimbo Trump beat, Rev Al will say trump called him a ****** and there will be a federal investigation into Trump's business deals. This will all happen in the span of a week and Jeb will be "surging" and win.

 

[ItsTime]

After I voted in a poll this summer and voted for Rand... The pollsters have been slow to call. Usually have the phone ringing off the hook. (I am from NH)

 

[eleganz]

There is no difference in this poll than the polls that were conducted before the first GOP debate, people are claiming that Rand has been sinking since his "poor" debate performance but he has stayed within the margin of error this whole time.

 

[adelina]

State polls take awhile to reflect changes shown in nationwide polls. Rand's numbers will increase.

 

[moraha]

I'm starting to get concerned with these polls. I saw a few posts on here mentioning that the numbers were pretty much backwards back in 2012, (the thread's gone?), but looking at the following page, it shows Romney being high in almost every poll: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natio..._Republican_Party_2012_presidential_primaries

It looks like Ron was averaging about 10% in most of those polls. I hope someone can figure out what's going on with Rand's support. One explanation is that the young voters haven't been polled yet, but was that also the case with Ron back in 2011?

 

[RabbitMan]

This is just one of those instances where we are going to have have faith for a while people.
Yes 2011-12 was crazy too with people dive bombing in the polls before soaring like Icarus, but this roller coaster is on a whole other level.

Our people know how to organize. Our people know the ground game. Our campaign team is incredibly skilled.

There has been a multitude of impossible to predict factors thrown into this race, so just sit tight, support your guy and let's keep him funded until the votes start being counted! End of Quarter push people!

 

[Peace Piper]

This is just one of those instances where we are going to have have faith for a while people.

“They are in front of us, behind us, and we are flanked on both sides by an enemy that outnumbers us 29:1. They can’t get away from us now!”

– Lewis B. “Chesty” Puller, USMC

 

[movingstone]

There is no difference in this poll than the polls that were conducted before the first GOP debate, people are claiming that Rand has been sinking since his "poor" debate performance but he has stayed within the margin of error this whole time.

When you down to only your very core base, then that # will become consistent. The metric that a lot of articles I am reading are using is 1st and 2nd choice, and favorability/unfavorability numbers. Unfortunately in Rand's case, those numbers don't look good. Carson on the other has been dropping from the poll, but his favorability is remain the highest in the field. This explain his recent rise prior to the 2nd debate despite pundits said he wasn't a stand out in the first debate.