New ARG Poll just out Rand beating Bush by 1%

[Joeinmo]

http://americanresearchgroup.com

Rand beating Bush by 1% in Iowa

Rand and Bush are in a tie now

 

[CPUd]

403

 

[r3volution 3.0]

[TABLE="class: tbody"]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 3, align: center"]Iowa
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 1"]Likely Republican
Caucus-Goers[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]Jan 6-10[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]Jan 21-24[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: maroon, colspan: 3"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #e6e6e6"]Bush[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #e6e6e6, align: right"]3%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #e6e6e6, align: right"]3%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Carson[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #E6E6E6"]Christie[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #e6e6e6, align: right"]6%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #e6e6e6, align: right"]4%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Cruz[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]25%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]26%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #e6e6e6"]Fiorina[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #e6e6e6, align: right"]1%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #e6e6e6, align: right"]1%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Gilmore[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #e6e6e6"]Huckabee[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #e6e6e6, align: right"]2%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #e6e6e6, align: right"]2%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Kasich[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #e6e6e6"]Paul[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #e6e6e6, align: right"]4%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #e6e6e6, align: right"]4%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rubio[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]10%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]11%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #e6e6e6"]Santorum
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #e6e6e6, align: right"]2%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #e6e6e6, align: right"]1%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Trump
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]29%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]33%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #e6e6e6"]Other
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #e6e6e6, align: right"]1%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #e6e6e6, align: right"]1%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Undecided
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Has this poll ever been used in any previous debate? The name doesn't ring a bell.

 

[CPUd]

[TABLE="class: tbody"]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 3, align: center"]Iowa
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 1"]Likely Republican
Caucus-Goers[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]Jan 6-10[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]Jan 21-24[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: maroon, colspan: 3"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #e6e6e6"]Bush[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #e6e6e6, align: right"]3%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #e6e6e6, align: right"]3%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Carson[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #E6E6E6"]Christie[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #e6e6e6, align: right"]6%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #e6e6e6, align: right"]4%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Cruz[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]25%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]26%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #e6e6e6"]Fiorina[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #e6e6e6, align: right"]1%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #e6e6e6, align: right"]1%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Gilmore[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #e6e6e6"]Huckabee[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #e6e6e6, align: right"]2%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #e6e6e6, align: right"]2%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Kasich[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #e6e6e6"]Paul[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #e6e6e6, align: right"]4%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #e6e6e6, align: right"]4%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rubio[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]10%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]11%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #e6e6e6"]Santorum
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #e6e6e6, align: right"]2%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #e6e6e6, align: right"]1%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Trump
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]29%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]33%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #e6e6e6"]Other
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #e6e6e6, align: right"]1%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #e6e6e6, align: right"]1%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Undecided
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Has this poll ever been used in any previous debate? The name doesn't ring a bell.

Yes, FBN used them for the previous debate.

 

[r3volution 3.0]

403

Works for me

Yes, FBN used them for the previous debate.

 

[kbs021]

I thought we were done with polling coming out lol whew! Geez for once, stop releasing polls! Christie is catching up now. The only one that may come out would be Monmouth and that worries me... One of the worst.

 

[CPUd]

This ARG will replace the 1/6 - 1/10 one, Rand and Jeb had the same numbers there. We definitely don't want any more polls unless Rand is 5% or higher and Jeb is 3% or lower.

 

[SilentBull]

Nice! So if they decide to include KBUR and CBS/YouGov, Rand still ties Bush because this gets rid of the Loras one.

 

[kbs021]

This ARG will replace the 1/6 - 1/10 one, Rand and Jeb had the same numbers there.

That is assuming they don't use the CBS poll... IF they release another poll, we may need that one to count. I wasn't planning on the older arg one.

 

[CPUd]

I'm looking now to see if the other Fox debates used CBS/YouGov. I know one of the networks did.

FBN did not use CBS/YouGov last time when they could have.

 

[CPUd]

OK, CBS/YouGov wasn't used in the previous Fox debates, because those only relied on national polling, and CBS/YouGov only does statewide polling. For national, CBS sometimes partners with NYT.

YouGov uses results from those content locker dialogs you see when you read online newspapers like Gannett. "answer this poll to read the article" type of dialogs.

 

[SilentBull]

OK, CBS/YouGov wasn't used in the previous Fox debates, because those only relied on national polling, and CBS/YouGov only does statewide polling. For national, CBS sometimes partners with NYT.

YouGov uses results from those content locker dialogs you see when you read online newspapers like Gannett. "answer this poll to read the article" type of dialogs.

KBUR was never used though, right?

 

[laurak]

 

[JJ2]

Ok, this is good because it means that they would have to throw out the highly-respected Des Moines Register poll in order to include KBUR. Hopefully they will not do that.

 

[kbs021]

I'm looking now to see if the other Fox debates used CBS/YouGov. I know one of the networks did.

FBN did not use CBS/YouGov last time when they could have.

Also if they count it, Loras poll just got dropped! And IF we get another poll, even if they counted KBUR, it would be dropped. I actually think we may be fairly safe

 

[Crashland]

There is still a chance that a bad poll could come along and fart on the liberty movement by putting Bush up to 8%

 

[CPUd]

Chip is counting the same polls I had listed. Those would have Rand and Jeb tied for #5.

 

[CPUd]

KBUR was never used though, right?

Never used, but never had an opportunity to be used.

 

[Brett85]

I don't know how we know for sure which polls they're going to use.

 

[CPUd]

I don't know how we know for sure which polls they're going to use.

We don't, we are going by what has been used (or skipped over) in the past. But as of now, there are more combinations of polls that will include Rand than those that will put him out.