New ARG Poll just out Rand beating Bush by 1%

As I said on another post

Brett85 said:
I don't know how we know for sure which polls they're going to use.
Click to expand...

yes Rand probably will have some higher or polls that show him the same, but what you really have to look at is how much Jeb is crashing. He will not go higher than he has been in Iowa, he is on a pretty hard curve down from Nov to today. So if another poll comes out like this one did it will probably show Bush done in Iowa.
 
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[TH="class: diag, bgcolor: #000000"]Rubio [/TH]
[TH="class: diag, bgcolor: #000000"]Carson [/TH]
[TH="class: diag, bgcolor: #000000"]Paul [/TH]
[TH="class: diag, bgcolor: #000000"]Bush [/TH]
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[TH="class: diag, bgcolor: #000000"]Kasich [/TH]
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[TD="class: sample, bgcolor: #F0DF6B, align: center"]--[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F0DF6B, align: center"]33.6[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F0DF6B, align: center"]27.2[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F0DF6B, align: center"]11.8[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F0DF6B, align: center"]7.2[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F0DF6B, align: center"]3.6[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F0DF6B, align: center"]3.6[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F0DF6B, align: center"]3.0[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F0DF6B, align: center"]2.2[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F0DF6B, align: center"]2.0[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F0DF6B, align: center"]1.4[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F0DF6B, align: center"]1.2[/TD]
[TD="class: spread, bgcolor: #F0DF6B, align: center"]Trump +6.4[/TD]
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[TD="class: noCenter, bgcolor: #F5F5F5"]ARG[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F5F5F5, align: center"]1/21 - 1/24[/TD]
[TD="class: sample, bgcolor: #F5F5F5, align: center"]400 LV[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F5F5F5, align: center"]33[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F5F5F5, align: center"]26[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F5F5F5, align: center"]11[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F5F5F5, align: center"]7[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F5F5F5, align: center"]4[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F5F5F5, align: center"]3[/TD]
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[TD="bgcolor: #F5F5F5, align: center"]3[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F5F5F5, align: center"]1[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F5F5F5, align: center"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: spread, bgcolor: #F5F5F5, align: center"]Trump +7[/TD]
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[TD="class: noCenter"]FOX News[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]1/18 - 1/21[/TD]
[TD="class: sample, align: center"]378 LV[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]34[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]23[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]12[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]7[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]6[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]2[/TD]
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[TD="class: noCenter, bgcolor: #F5F5F5"]CBS News/YouGov[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F5F5F5, align: center"]1/18 - 1/21[/TD]
[TD="class: sample, bgcolor: #F5F5F5, align: center"]492 LV[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F5F5F5, align: center"]39[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F5F5F5, align: center"]34[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F5F5F5, align: center"]13[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F5F5F5, align: center"]5[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F5F5F5, align: center"]3[/TD]
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[TD="align: center"]1/15 - 1/20[/TD]
[TD="class: sample, align: center"]266 LV[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]37[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]26[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]14[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]6[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]2[/TD]
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[TD="class: sample, bgcolor: #F5F5F5, align: center"]687 LV[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F5F5F5, align: center"]25[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F5F5F5, align: center"]27[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F5F5F5, align: center"]9[/TD]
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Joeinmo said:
yes Rand probably will have some higher or polls that show him the same, but what you really have to look at is how much Jeb is crashing. He will not go higher than he has been in Iowa, he is on a pretty hard curve down from Nov to today. So if another poll comes out like this one did it will probably show Bush done in Iowa.
Click to expand...
That's good because if one more poll comes out, and Rand tied with Bush, then Rand will be 6th according to likely FOX criteria. Rand would need to beat him by 1 or more.
 
Anti-Neocon said:
That's good because if one more poll comes out, and Rand tied with Bush, then Rand will be 6th according to likely FOX criteria. Rand would need to beat him by 1 or more.
Click to expand...

hmmmm...so what is the tie breaker? I always thought if two candidates tied in any one of the 3 national, Iowa, NH - both candidates are in.
 
It looks like Rand is just on the right side of the cut but it could go either way.

I will be curious to see how Fox responds if he does just miss. One argument for Fox keeping Rand out is his snubbing the last debate. The argument for Fox giving Rand the benefit of the doubt in a close decision is that it would be an embarrassment for Fox if Rand finishes third with 10-12% in the Caucus and Fox excluded him from the last two debates. From what I have read in multiple places, Rand is the most likely to upside surprise vs the polls. I predict Fox takes that into account.
 
robskicks said:
i doubt fox would be embarrassed
Click to expand...

I still think it will factor in on some level. Ron Paul did much better than the polls in 2008. And I read a few of things different Iowa people have said like Steve Deace about the caucus and the consensus is Rand could conceivably get low double digits if things go well. I just think they will cover themselves. There wouldn't be any downside from their perspective in letting Rand into the debate.
 
Krugminator2 said:
I still think it will factor in on some level. Ron Paul did much better than the polls in 2008. And I read a few of things different Iowa people have said like Steve Deace about the caucus and the consensus is Rand could conceivably get low double digits if things go well. I just think they will cover themselves. There wouldn't be any downside from their perspective in letting Rand into the debate.
Click to expand...

I sincerely think NOW we're between Ron's '08 numbers and Ron's '12 numbers. So I think Rand is between 12 and 15% considering the vastly experienced caucus team Rand must have and considering his campaign manager in the state has been in the whole process in the past. And then there's the room for the last minute wagenhoppers who can give Rand a wonderful result (students that may have liked Ron in 08 and/or 12 but we're never in school to caucus for him, new first-time caucusgoers, etc.) :D
 
I think Rand is in

Krugminator2 said:
It looks like Rand is just on the right side of the cut but it could go either way.

I will be curious to see how Fox responds if he does just miss. One argument for Fox keeping Rand out is his snubbing the last debate. The argument for Fox giving Rand the benefit of the doubt in a close decision is that it would be an embarrassment for Fox if Rand finishes third with 10-12% in the Caucus and Fox excluded him from the last two debates. From what I have read in multiple places, Rand is the most likely to upside surprise vs the polls. I predict Fox takes that into account.
Click to expand...


I feel most people are looking at this wrong the 2 month trend is Rand is rising, although slowly but steady in the polls in Iowa, but Bush on the other hand has been on a spiral down, he is no longer running tv ads, he will continue to go down in Iowa, the next poll should see Bush drop again.
 
CPUd said:
I'll settle for the phone bankers and caucusgoers.
Click to expand...

As well!! Do you have any idea how many more polls we can expect from Iowa? I read on Twitter there's 1 poll that should help Rand clear the debate threshold (I'm guessing Rand would need to beat Jeb by 2-3%, just to avoid any polls from shifting trying to screw Rand)?? :o
 
Joeinmo said:
Jan 26 by 8am all polls have to be in
Click to expand...

Actually, cutoff time is 5 PM Eastern, Tuesday Jan. 26

FOX NEWS CHANNEL ANNOUNCES CRITERIA FOR UPCOMING REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY DEBATE


FOX News Channel (FNC) announced today that it will present two Republican presidential primary debates on Thursday, January 28th live from the Iowa Events Center in Des Moines, Iowa.

The criteria for inclusion in the debates will factor in both national polls, as well as those based in Iowa and New Hampshire conducted and released prior to Tuesday, January 26th at 5PM/ET. The primetime debate will feature candidates that place in the top six spots nationally, or place within the top five in Iowa or New Hampshire.

The earlier debate will be presented at 7PM/ET and will be moderated by America’s Newsroom co-anchors Bill Hemmer and Martha MacCallum. The primetime debate will begin at 9PM/ET, moderated by Special Report anchor Bret Baier, The Kelly File anchor Megyn Kelly and FOX News Sunday host Chris Wallace.

FOX News announced the entry criteria as follows:
•In order to qualify for the primetime debate, candidates must place in the top six spots nationally in an average of the five most recent national polls, or place within the top five in Iowa or New Hampshire in an average of the five most recent Iowa or New Hampshire polls recognized by FOX News.
•In order to qualify for the early debate, candidates must register at least one percent in ONE of the five most recent national polls recognized by FOX News.

Such polling must be conducted by major nationally and state recognized organizations that use standard methodological techniques (i.e., live interviewers, include both landlines and cellphones, and employ either random digit-dial or registration-based sampling methodologies).
Click to expand...

http://press.foxnews.com/2016/01/fo...oming-republican-presidential-primary-debate/
 
Last edited:
When attending the next debate.. his opening should be.

"Guess who's back. Back again. Randal's back. Tell a friend."
 
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