National Review's Whip Count...Boehner might actually be able to pass his new bill

[Agorism]

Not looking good

National Review Whip count

We have 21 GOP members seemingly against.

5 Dems who votes for Cut,cap whatever.

So that leaves Boehner at only -16

House GOP leaders urged unity at a Tuesday morning conference meeting. When they meet again this evening, leaders will be scrambling to explain away a suspect scoring from the Congressional Budget Office, which could scare away a number of undecided votes. Boehner’s office says a re-write of the legislation is underway.

Meanwhile, here’s the latest whip count. House Republicans need less than 25 defections if they hope to pass the bill without any Democratic support:

Confirmed NO:

Rep. Jim Jordan (R., Ohio), RSC chair
Rep. Tom Graves (R., Ga.)
Rep. Louis Gohmert (R., Texas)
Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R., Utah)
Rep. Tim Huelskamp (R., Kan.)
Rep. Jeff Landry (R., La.)
Rep. Dennis Ross (R., Fla.)
Rep. Joe Walsh (R., Ill.)
Rep. Phil Gingrey (R., Ga.)
Rep. Paul Broun (R., Ga.)
Rep. Jeff Flake (R., Ariz.)

Leaning NO:

Rep. Trey Gowdy (R., S.C.)
Rep. Steve King (R., Iowa)
Rep. Tom Rooney (R., Fla.)

Presumed NO (voted against “Cut, Cap and Balance”):

Rep. Ron Paul (R., Texas)
Rep. Michele Bachmann (R., Minn.)
Rep. Francisco Canseco (R., Texas)
Rep. Scott DesJarlais (R., Tenn.)
Rep. Morgan Griffith (R., Va.)
Rep. Walter Jones (R., N.C.)
Rep. Connie Mack (R., Fla.)

Total NO count: 21

Members who are “still considering”:

Rep. Scott Garrett (R., N.J.), member of RSC leadership
Rep. Mike Pence (R., Ind.)
Rep. Bill Huizenga (R., Mich.)

Possible YES Democrats (supported “Cut, Cap and Balance”):

Rep. Dan Boren (D., Okla.) is a “no comment.”
Rep. Jim Cooper (D., Tenn.) ?
Rep. Jim Matheson (D., Utah) ?
Rep. Mike McIntyre (D., N.C.) ?
Rep. Heath Shuler (D., N.C.) is a “no.”

(+5 Dems for Boehner here)

Senate Republican NO’s:

Sen. Rand Paul (R., Ky.)
Sen. Jim DeMint (R., S.C.)
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R., S.C.)
Sen. David Vitter (R., La.)
Sen. Mike Lee (R., Utah)

Note: Rep. Devin Nunes (R., Calif.), a “yes” vote who is close to leadership, sounded fairly optimistic that the Boehner plan could pass the House, telling reporters that the whip count “is getting close.” He seemed concerned however, when someone mentioned the number of GOP defections in the Senate.

And then there's the senate

There are already five Republican no votes in the Senate, too: In addition to Lindsey Graham, who’s clearly trying to cover his flank ahead of his reelection campaign, DeMint, Rand Paul, Mike Lee, and David Vitter(!) sent out a letter today urging House Republicans to defeat Boehner’s bill.

McConnell will be starting with 42 votes. He needs dems votes to pass it. If dems go along with a filibuster (they probably won't) McConnel would then need 18 dems instead of just 8.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/glennthrush/0711/GOP_Senators_dismiss_Boehners_plan.html

 

[Lucille]

The one O Duce's going to veto?

Also, have the Republicrats cut the TSA yet? Knapp has lots more suggestions if the unprincipled, uninspired GOP mopes are at a loss.

As an aside:

In addition to Lindsey Graham, who’s clearly trying to cover his flank ahead of his reelection campaign

This clown has GOT TO GO.

 

[Brett85]

I'm glad to see that my rep Tim Huelskamp is a confirmed "no" vote.

 

[Agorism]

bump

 

[Feeding the Abscess]

The writer probably should have placed Ron in the "don't bother" camp.

Also awesome that Amash is grovelling at the throne of establishment Republicanism. Ron Paul is wrong on Cut, Cap, and Balance according to you, and you're gonna go along with Bo(-eh)ner on this harebrained plan? Wow, screw your head on straight and grow some balls. In that order.

Hope I'm proven wrong on that one.

EDIT: I was.

 

[Agorism]

Bump

 

[Zippyjuan]

Anything passed in the House will still have to get through the Demorcatic controlled Senate.

 

[amonasro]

So... it won't pass the Senate, what's the point? More puppet theater?

 

[Agorism]

Tim Scott is a no according to Stiles

http://twitter.com/#!/AndrewStilesNRO

Can we add Amash to the list?

 

[RP Supporter]

God I want this to fail. I think that would pretty much be the end for Boehner as speaker. Not that he'd step down, but he'd have no real power anymore.

Not that the alternatives are any better, but a defeat of this bill does send a strong message.

 

[Agorism]

If We add Scott and Amash to the No's that would be 23 no's with a bunch undecided.

 

[devil21]

Has the vote time been set yet?

 

[Agorism]

They keep delaying it. It was supposed to be set to this hour as well.

Delay means they lack the votes of course.

 

[1836]

Looks like as many as 25 for sure now, Steve King 100% no as he just stated on O'Reilly

 

[majinkoola]

I don't think my congressman (Schweikert from AZ) is going to vote for it.

 

[Agorism]

Steve King is a NO?

Previously they had him as a yes.

 

[TCE]

God I want this to fail. I think that would pretty much be the end for Boehner as speaker. Not that he'd step down, but he'd have no real power anymore.

Not that the alternatives are any better, but a defeat of this bill does send a strong message.

How do you figure? Pelosi and other Speakers before have had defections among their own party members. Remember the Health Care bill? It was madness for a year. Boehner's role as Speaker is safe. Defeating this bill would be awesome for the sake of defeating the bill.

Zippy: The Senate will pass a different version, they'll conference, and they'll pass the compromise. Same thing they've always done. This is purely theatre.

 

[AuH20]

Color me impressed. Finally. I've been waiting all my life for this. Ron started the spark.

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/273041/last-minute-touchdown-robert-costa

A senior Republican member tells me that Boehner is nearing 216. Still, he says, the “no” votes are rallying together and shaking up the final whip count: “They think they have the momentum.”

Once one “no” vote announces, he says, the media attention and cheers from fellow conservatives becomes a huge factor — and influence others to join the camp. “Saying no, at [this] hour, is like scoring a last-minute touchdown,” he says. “They are loving the spoiler role, from what I can tell. It’s a big problem for Boehner — not devastating, but big.”

 

[RP Supporter]

How do you figure? Pelosi and other Speakers before have had defections among their own party members. Remember the Health Care bill? It was madness for a year. Boehner's role as Speaker is safe. Defeating this bill would be awesome for the sake of defeating the bill.

Zippy: The Senate will pass a different version, they'll conference, and they'll pass the compromise. Same thing they've always done. This is purely theatre.

The difference is Pelosi got the votes. It's looking like Boehner is looking like he won't. Huge blow to any power he claims to have.

 

[Agorism]

http://twitter.com/#!/AndrewStilesNRO

Stiles is claiming they have 216...

Who knows.

If they aren't voting, then that means not 216 I think though.