My personal prediction for Rand in Iowa... do you have a prediction??

[adam220891]

It's hard to believe the polling could be so off. However, it's just as hard to believe Rand's message is so unpopular. The polling also totally goes against everything Rand's team is saying.

So I say 19%.

 

[Mike4Freedom]

The newest CNN poll in Iowa has Rand at 2%. They did not poll anyone under the age of 55? WTF? Seriously 17-35 was 30%+ of the vote in Iowa in 2012. This is insane?

 

[CPUd]

The newest CNN poll in Iowa has Rand at 2%. They did not poll anyone under the age of 55? WTF? Seriously 17-35 was 30%+ of the vote in Iowa in 2012. This is insane?

Their sample was too small to accurately project the numbers for all but the oldest age group.

 

[CPUd]

 

[Mike4Freedom]

Their sample was too small to accurately project the numbers for all but the oldest age group.

Ahh, so just a shitty poll then.

 

[CPUd]

Prediction: Randslide!

 

[Influenza]

I imagine between 8 and 12%, would hope it to be a lot more though as most of us do

 

[Matt Collins]

So you're claiming that the campaign is lying when they say their goal is to get between 17,000 and 27,000 voters to caucus for Rand?

No not at all, I don't think they are lying.

 

[nikcers]

I think that this election isn't going to follow any of the rules of the previous 2-5 cycles. I feel like Rand's campaign as a whole is almost like it's from a different time period because he has a huge opportunity to flip the script. He is in a different gear then everyone else right now, and we are about to see whether or not appealing to a general audience can work in a primary and it might because I think he just needs to win a major battle against the RNC he needs to look like the winner he needs to make them look stupid.

 

[alucard13mm]

Trump 1st. Rand and Cruz fight for 2nd. Rubio and Bush fight for 4th.

 

[Liberty74]

So you're claiming that the campaign is lying when they say their goal is to get between 17,000 and 27,000 voters to caucus for Rand?

Dear god don't confuse goal with reality. The reality is Rand is polling 2% or 5%. That's about 6000 votes max. Rand is getting almost no support from the old group who actually vote. In order to get to 17-27K voters, Cruz would have to tank and half of his support would have to go to Rand. I don't see that happening at this point for various reasons.

 

[Austrian Econ Disciple]

Dear god don't confuse goal with reality. The reality is Rand is polling 2% or 5%. That's about 6000 votes max. Rand is getting almost no support from the old group who actually vote. In order to get to 17-27K voters, Cruz would have to tank and half of his support would have to go to Rand. I don't see that happening at this point for various reasons.

Polls are manufactured. Have you bothered to even evaluate their methodology and demographic swath? Polls are increasingly obsolete and the results of the past few years bear it out. When you're relying on landline to get the vast majority of respondents you're going to not be very close to actual voting results. Rands support comes hugely from the demo that has no landline. Rand is certainly going to get far more than 5% in the caucus, especially with the schools being in this year and caucus' on campus. Is he going to win Iowa? Probably not, but he's certainly going to get at least 15%. Where that puts him who knows, but that's his floor.

You act like polls and the polling companies are infallible.

PS: This is going to sound crude and a bit heartless, but I can't wait til the old fogies die. The under 40 generation votes vastly different than the over 40s (and over 55's especially). No, I don't want any of our older supporters to die, but those other douches in the GOP I could care less. Neg me. I suspect the GOP is either going to die off in 15-20 years or be much different than it is today.

 

[simon1911]

I say 9000 votes. As much as I hate saying this, we have to be realistic.

 

[LibertyEagle]

PS: This is going to sound crude and a bit heartless, but I can't wait til the old fogies die. The under 40 generation votes vastly different than the over 40s (and over 55's especially). No, I don't want any of our older supporters to die, but those other douches in the GOP I could care less. Neg me. I suspect the GOP is either going to die off in 15-20 years or be much different than it is today.

You think the young people are going to be better? That's a laugh. Each subsequent generation seems to be worse than the previous.

 

[CaptUSA]

Polls are manufactured.

This is true. At least that they aren't measuring what the media says they are measuring.

Unfortunately, most people still believe them. Even if they say they don't.

So, if you have a poll (with flawed samples) showing 50% undecided, but the media reports it as Trump, Cruz, Rubio, and Bush getting 75% of the favor, most people think they are the ones who have a chance of winning. And even more unfortunate, most people want to vote for who they think will win. So, the media focuses on the horse race of the polls instead of stances on issues and it becomes a self-serving circular outcome. And they are expert at it.

I suspect Rand dramatically outperforms the polls, the media disregards it because it's just college kids, and people continue to believe the polls even though they were proven incorrect.

 

[Peace&Freedom]

You think the young people are going to be better? That's a laugh. Each subsequent generation seems to be worse than the previous.

According to population trends, while the white population may be slowly declining, white Christian conservatives within it are outbreeding white liberals by at least 40%, and this rate more than offsets the influx of liberal immigrants. There will be more young conservatives over the next 20-30 years, not less:

http://xenohistorian.faithweb.com/holybook/articles/fertility.html

https://jaymans.wordpress.com/2012/08/27/the-liberalconservative-baby-gap-time-depth/

http://townhall.com/columnists/kurt...l-outbreed-barren-liberals-n1986978/page/full

 

[CPUd]

 

[Brett85]

Dear god don't confuse goal with reality. The reality is Rand is polling 2% or 5%. That's about 6000 votes max. Rand is getting almost no support from the old group who actually vote. In order to get to 17-27K voters, Cruz would have to tank and half of his support would have to go to Rand. I don't see that happening at this point for various reasons.

I think you're overly pessimistic. I don't think the polls are at all accurate. When you look at the crosstabs you can see that. Rand isn't getting 0% of the 18-24 year old vote like he was in the Monmouth poll. But, I'm just saying that it's hard for me to imagine Rand polling at 2-3% and then somehow winning the Iowa caucus or placing second. I've never seen the polls be off be that much before. I think the polls that have Rand at 2-3% are laughably absurd, but if I had to guess, if Rand is still polling at 2-3% right before the caucus, I think he'll probably end up with about 12% in the actual results.

 

[Dary]

Win - Rand
Place - Cruz
Show - Bush

 

[Champ]

Yes, the polls are not an accurate gauge to tell us what the story really is. They usually take shortcuts with their polling methods and have tiny sample sizes. Even with that being said, it's unlikely that Rand will outperform the abysmal polling numbers by a 20% increase or more, which is what is needed for an Iowa victory. He is going to do better than the average polling numbers we have seen, but not so much better to take a victory. And yes, him and his results, whatever they may be, will be either downplayed or largely ignored, just like his father. He could still dominate the caucuses due to a strong ground game and active caucus participants picking up a plurality of delegates, but the media and the people do not care about that, nor will they acknowledge the fact that the straw poll is meaningless.

Who knows, there is still time left, to have a Santorum Surge or something similar. Been waiting and hoping for that to happen, but alas it has not thus far.