My personal prediction for Rand in Iowa... do you have a prediction??

[Bastiat's The Law]

You think the young people are going to be better? That's a laugh. Each subsequent generation seems to be worse than the previous.

How eagerly and openly support a socialist is disturbing. But that's what the public schools set out to do.

 

[Bastiat's The Law]

My prediction: 5th

 

[SilentBull]

They're not running TV ads outside Iowa/NH, and even those are sparse until next week. He will definitely need to run TV ads to be competitive past NH, where they will have to hit 10-20% threshold in the popular vote to get delegates. The game plan is to get enough of a boost in his national profile from Iowa results to bring in more donors, because a lot of us are maxed out. Considering what they can do with the money they are getting now, it will be awesome when they are raising the kind of money like Carson did last year.

I'm in NH. Really hoping to start seeing some ads this week.

 

[Operation Earnest Voice]

My prediction:

1000 -> Precinct chairs
3000 -> Students
2500 -> Each precinct chair brings an average of 2.5 people with them
13,000 -> 50% of Ron's support from 2012
2000 -> New supporters

Total: 21,500 votes for 3rd place

 

[JJ2]

Here is my prediction 7 days out, barring any major shakeups. Guaranteed to be more accurate than the polls

Trump 28%
Cruz 24%
Paul 17%
Rubio 8%
Carson 5%
Santorum 4%
Huckabee 4%
Bush 4%
Christie 3%
Kasich 2%
Fiorina 1%
Gilmore <1%

I actually have Bush outperforming the trending numbers in the polls based solely on his last name. Rubio and Carson will be lower than the polls show right now. Paul, Huckabee, and Santorum will be higher. Polls are probably pretty accurate for Christie, Kasich, and Fiorina. Trump's and Cruz's actual voters are overestimated in the polls.

 

[derek4ever]

Here is my prediction 7 days out, barring any major shakeups. Guaranteed to be more accurate than the polls

Trump 28%
Cruz 24%
Paul 17%
Rubio 8%
Carson 5%
Santorum 4%
Huckabee 4%
Bush 4%
Christie 3%
Kasich 2%
Fiorina 1%
Gilmore <1%

I actually have Bush outperforming the trending numbers in the polls based solely on his last name. Rubio and Carson will be lower than the polls show right now. Paul, Huckabee, and Santorum will be higher. Polls are probably pretty accurate for Christie, Kasich, and Fiorina. Trump's and Cruz's actual voters are overestimated in the polls.

I think your prediction is quite realistic! Would be nice to see Trumpeteers and Cruisers to not turnout as high (more than likely for Trump, since Cruz has a good ground game). We shall see! If Rand's in the debate, he'll overperform for real. If not, he'll still be able to overperform (but showing Rand in the debate can get those fence-sitters to get on our side)

 

[Foreigner]

Cruz 30%
Rand 23%
Trump 20%
Rubio 13%
Carson 5%
Bush 4%
Huckabee 3%
Christie 3%
Santorum 2%
Kasich 1%
Fiorina 1%

I don't enjoy putting Cruz first, but he has a very good ground game and many important Iowa endorsements. If Cruz start to drop, and Rand rises to double digits in the polls, this may be ours for the taking.

 

[Operation Earnest Voice]

In which state are those out-of-state students registered to vote? Their home state or Iowa?

Here in Indiana, if they want to vote here, I'm pretty sure they need to get Indiana drivers' licenses, and relinquish their drivers' licenses in their home states when they do. I'm not sure if it's like that in Iowa. If it is, how many out-of-state college students want to do that to be able to vote in a Republican party caucus.

I believe they are allowed to register as Iowa residents.

From the Iowa Secretary of State website:

If you are a college student, you may choose to register to vote at your home address or at your college address. You cannot register to vote at both.

https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/voterinformation/preregister.html

 

[69360]

There was another one of these threads.

I'll say the same in this one. 5th place 7%. Will slightly overperform polling.

 

[Mani]

At min. 3rd Place 16% to 22% for Paul.