My personal prediction for Rand in Iowa... do you have a prediction??

[derek4ever]

OK guys! I'm starting this prediction thread for Rand in Iowa. Now, I did promise that I won't give a final standing for Rand. However, I've done some number crunching on my own and here's my prediction and will give percentages.

Rand SHOULD get about 22% of the vote, give or take, within the margin of error. I added Ron's numbers in 2008 and 2012 plus Dole's 96 numbers and Forbes' 2000 numbers. Remember, Rand's Iowa campaign manager is the same guy that helped Dole win in 96 and helped Forbes get 2nd in 2000. Now, we don't know for sure how many of those that will vote for Rand actually voted Dole/Forbes/Paul/Paul in the past caucuses.

Rand will no doubt get a huge influx of new caucusers and that will change his numbers for the better, in my view.

So, just consider my prediction is based only on the results for either Ron or under Rand's campaign manager's wing.

Just my two cents!

 

[Matt Collins]

I predict that Rand will do worse than Ron did in 2012, in terms of place. I predict 4th or 5th place.

 

[erowe1]

16%. Solid 3rd place. Trump will win with no more than 25%.

 

[groverblue]

1st.

 

[timreichstein]

13% in a close race for 3rd with Rubio.

 

[LatinsforPaul]

I predict that Rand will do worse than Ron did in 2012, in terms of place. I predict 4th or 5th place.

So a win in Iowa by Rand with over 26,000 votes would shock you?

 

[CPUd]

 

[opinionatedfool]

1st

Maybe saying so will make it so

Chances are some votes will disappear, so probably 3rd

 

[brandon]

I'm not convinced he will significantly out perform the polls. Single digits in the popular vote, and a stronger showing down the line in the state convention. Lets say 3-8%

He's currently polling at 3% fwiw

 

[Lightweis]

Rand will be under 5 percent.

 

[ross11988]

4th place. 12%

 

[Brett85]

I really don't know at this point. I was thinking he could do really well and surprise people, but the latest polls are just really discouraging, and I don't know how well he can do in Iowa without even being in the last debate. I just wish we could get some good news for once. It just seems like our movement never gets any good news at all.

 

[Liberty74]

8%

 

[fcreature]

21%

 

[derek4ever]

I really don't know at this point. I was thinking he could do really well and surprise people, but the latest polls are just really discouraging, and I don't know how well he can do in Iowa without even being in the last debate. I just wish we could get some good news for once. It just seems like our movement never gets any good news at all.

I seriously propose we all get together and create a media station for freedom ideas! The RPF is great but maybe we need something like the Liberty Channel or something? And we can have really great freedom-minded guests!

 

[Matt Collins]

So a win in Iowa by Rand with over 26,000 votes would shock you?

No because it is not possible.

 

[Brett85]

No because it is not possible.

So you're claiming that the campaign is lying when they say their goal is to get between 17,000 and 27,000 voters to caucus for Rand?

 

[NativeOne]

Rand WILL WIN with upwards to 40% of the vote, or more .. and yes you can quote me ..

 

[SilentBull]

There's another prediction thread with specific totals for each candidate. Can't find it right now.

I've been predicting a win with 27%.

 

[Mike4Freedom]

No because it is not possible.

Why not?