March 8th Results: Idaho, Hawaii, Michigan, Mississippi

[SpiritOf1776_J4]

polls close in Hawaii in 20 minutes

 

[MarcusI]

20 minutes left to first Hawai'i numbers

The win for Cruz in Idaho is getting bigger and bigger:

Est. in: 64%

Cruz 43.7
Trump 27.9
Rubio 17.5
Kasich 7.3

I think by now I "call" it out: No delegates for Rubio in Idaho tonight.

 

[francisco]

20 minutes left to first Hawai'i numbers



...I think by now I "call" it out: No delegates for Rubio in Idaho tonight.

Or anywhere else, so far. Bad night for Rubio. He will probably get some delegates from HI, though, which has no minimum threshold. Heck, he could conceivable win HI; he won the last island to vote (Puerto Rico).

 

[goldwater's ghost]

After Utah, life becomes extremely hard for Rafael Cruz. I would start praying and ask for some of that divine providence that he is known for mentioning.

nah. he is the defacto anti trump candidate. he will get all the rubio/kasich votes when they drop and trump cant get over 50%. this is going to a brokered convention

 

[MarcusI]

Update Michigan GOP:

With 97% counted, Cruz has won the symbolical 2nd place (my personal "call"). No delegates for Rubio for sure. More delegates against Trump than for him.

Mississippi GOP:

95% est. in:

Trump 47.3%
Cruz 36.3%

All others surely below the 15% threshold. Trump will win ~60% of the delagates, Cruz ~40%

 

[misterx]

nah. he is the defacto anti trump candidate. he will get all the rubio/kasich votes when they drop and trump cant get over 50%. this is going to a brokered convention

All?

 

[RonPaulGeorge&Ringo]

Regarding the "You-have-to-have-the-majority-of-8-state-delegations-to-get-nominated-Rule" (ofc, they can change it at the convention), Cruz is getting closer to it if Rubio gets no delegates in Idaho. He has Texas, Kansas, Maine so far (as majority, not only plurality).

Cruz will have a majority of the Louisiana delegates ready to go on the first ballot. (18 Trump, 18 Cruz, 3 "super," 5 Rubio, 5 "unbound"). Assuming the LAGOP hand-picked hacks go Cruz, that gives him 26/49.

 

[MarcusI]

Cruz will have a majority of the Louisiana delegates ready to go on the first ballot. (18 Trump, 18 Cruz, 3 "super," 5 Rubio, 5 "unbound"). Assuming the LAGOP hand-picked hacks go Cruz, that gives him 26/49.

There are no "super ones" this cycle. They are also bound to the "at-large" binding in this GOP election cycle. You just have that 3 "super" delegates too much in your count, it are only 46 in total from Louisiana. Its 23 / 46 if the 5 "unbound" are going Cruz. (But ofc if Rubio releases his delegates, they could vote Cruz and get him to have the majority. And ofc, the GOP can change rules at the national convention itself)

 

[MarcusI]

20 minutes after the polls closed, still no numbers from Hawai'i

 

[MarcusI]

Story in the Dem primary today is how well Sanders did in Michigan. Yeah, true, especially compared to the polls. But... he lost soooooo huge in Mississippi...:

Est. in: 95%

Clinton 82.6%
Sanders 16.5%

(if he will go below 15% he will get no delegates at all from MS. But that wont happen)

 

[MarcusI]

First Hawai'i numbers coming in... but... it are only 59 votes in total in so far... so I wont tell you Trump leads

 

[zactidwell]

from CNN:

2%


R
trump 52.5%
cruz 28.8%
kasich 10.2%

 

[MarcusI]

Hmmm 150 votes are in... Trump still leading by far :/

 

[misterx]

Hmmm 150 votes are in... Trump still leading by far :/

45 votes lol

 

[MarcusI]

No votes from the biggest and most populated county (island) from Hawai'i in yet

 

[SpiritOf1776_J4]

First Hawai'i numbers coming in... but... it are only 59 votes in total in so far... so I wont tell you Trump leads

his hotel voted early and often.

heck, the pollng place was in its lobby

 

[misterx]

3% in now, it's starting to shape up into a battle between Trump and Cruz.

 

[MarcusI]

Cruz comes a bit close to 50% in Idaho by now (81% in, Cruz at 44.7%).


Trump have a good shot at winning Hawai'i I think, by now...

 

[MarcusI]

Lol that Hawai'i GOP leader has such a German name Germany has a big (colonial) history in Polynesia "no one" knows about, I'm happy to see that there are still some of German descent by today (if you watching CNN you have heard him a few min ago)

 

[Unknown.User]

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