March 8th Results: Idaho, Hawaii, Michigan, Mississippi

[MarcusI]

CNN calls Michigan Dem primary for Sanders

 

[misterx]

Romney effect. It may cost Trump AZ too.

 

[RJ Liberty]

NBC just called MI for Bernie.

So did the NYT. The polling, which heavily favored Clinton, was so far off that Nate Silver has called it one of the "greatest polling errors in primary history".

 

[r3volution 3.0]

So did the NYT. The polling, which heavily favored Clinton, was so far off that Nate Silver has called it one of the "greatest polling errors in primary history".

How about Kansas?

What was the spread, about 26 points?

 

[Jan2017]

I am seeing . . .

Idaho Primary Results

LIVE 11:43:05 PM ET
Republican Primary

Cruz leads by 8 points, with 22% reporting.

[TABLE="class: eln-table eln-results-table, width: 588"]
[TR]
[TH="class: eln-header eln-candidates"]CANDIDATES[/TH]
[TH="class: eln-header eln-votes, align: right"]VOTE[/TH]
[TH="class: eln-header eln-percent, align: right"]PCT.[/TH]
[TH="class: eln-header eln-percent-wrap"][/TH]
[/TR]
[TR="class: eln-row eln-cruz-61815 eln-ted-cruz eln-party-republican eln-has-image"]
[TD="class: eln-cell eln-name"] Ted Cruz[/TD]
[TD="class: eln-cell eln-votes, align: right"]17,179[/TD]
[TD="class: eln-cell eln-percent, align: right"]38.9%[/TD]
[TD="class: eln-cell eln-percent-wrap"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: eln-row eln-trump-8639 eln-donald-trump eln-party-republican eln-has-image"]
[TD="class: eln-cell eln-name"] Donald J. Trump[/TD]
[TD="class: eln-cell eln-votes, align: right"]13,708[/TD]
[TD="class: eln-cell eln-percent, align: right"]31.0[/TD]
[TD="class: eln-cell eln-percent-wrap"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: eln-row eln-rubio-53044 eln-marco-rubio eln-party-republican eln-has-image"]
[TD="class: eln-cell eln-name"] Marco Rubio[/TD]
[TD="class: eln-cell eln-votes, align: right"]8,147[/TD]
[TD="class: eln-cell eln-percent, align: right"]18.5[/TD]
[TD="class: eln-cell eln-percent-wrap"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: eln-row eln-kasich-36679 eln-john-kasich eln-party-republican eln-has-image"]
[TD="class: eln-cell eln-name"] John Kasich[/TD]
[TD="class: eln-cell eln-votes, align: right"]3,211[/TD]
[TD="class: eln-cell eln-percent, align: right"]7.3[/TD]
[TD="class: eln-cell eln-percent-wrap"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: eln-row eln-other-999999 eln-other eln-party- eln-no-image"]
[TD="class: eln-cell eln-name"]Other[/TD]
[TD="class: eln-cell eln-votes, align: right"]1,909[/TD]
[TD="class: eln-cell eln-percent, align: right"]4.3[/TD]
[TD="class: eln-cell eln-percent-wrap"][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
44,154 votes, 22% reporting (207 of 960 precincts)
http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/idaho

Rubio needs to break 15% to get delegates.

 

[AuH20]

Romney effect. It may cost Trump AZ too.

But he's going to have the coattail effect in Ohio after the Michigan romp. Plus, Rubio is fading in Fla.

 

[MarcusI]

So did the NYT. The polling, which heavily favored Clinton, was so far off that Nate Silver has called it one of the "greatest polling errors in primary history".

Yep basically 60:40 for Clinton in the polls

 

[MarcusI]

Hawai'i caucuses close only in 1h 10 min btw....

 

[misterx]

But he's going to have the coattail effect in Ohio after the Michigan romp. Plus, Rubio is fading in Fla.

The good news for Trump is that the anti-Trump vote still can't decide between Cruz and Kasich. That's going to really help him out in Florida and Ohio.

 

[SpiritOf1776_J4]

Idaho looks like two different states on election maps. you could make a guess of which of the remaining counties will go to who now.

 

[misterx]

I am seeing . . .

Idaho Primary Results

LIVE 11:43:05 PM ET
Republican Primary

Cruz leads by 8 points, with 22% reporting.

[TABLE="class: eln-table eln-results-table, width: 588"]
[TR]
[TH="class: eln-header eln-candidates"]CANDIDATES[/TH]
[TH="class: eln-header eln-votes, align: right"]VOTE[/TH]
[TH="class: eln-header eln-percent, align: right"]PCT.[/TH]
[TH="class: eln-header eln-percent-wrap"][/TH]
[/TR]
[TR="class: eln-row eln-cruz-61815 eln-ted-cruz eln-party-republican eln-has-image"]
[TD="class: eln-cell eln-name"] Ted Cruz[/TD]
[TD="class: eln-cell eln-votes, align: right"]17,179[/TD]
[TD="class: eln-cell eln-percent, align: right"]38.9%[/TD]
[TD="class: eln-cell eln-percent-wrap"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: eln-row eln-trump-8639 eln-donald-trump eln-party-republican eln-has-image"]
[TD="class: eln-cell eln-name"] Donald J. Trump[/TD]
[TD="class: eln-cell eln-votes, align: right"]13,708[/TD]
[TD="class: eln-cell eln-percent, align: right"]31.0[/TD]
[TD="class: eln-cell eln-percent-wrap"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: eln-row eln-rubio-53044 eln-marco-rubio eln-party-republican eln-has-image"]
[TD="class: eln-cell eln-name"] Marco Rubio[/TD]
[TD="class: eln-cell eln-votes, align: right"]8,147[/TD]
[TD="class: eln-cell eln-percent, align: right"]18.5[/TD]
[TD="class: eln-cell eln-percent-wrap"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: eln-row eln-kasich-36679 eln-john-kasich eln-party-republican eln-has-image"]
[TD="class: eln-cell eln-name"] John Kasich[/TD]
[TD="class: eln-cell eln-votes, align: right"]3,211[/TD]
[TD="class: eln-cell eln-percent, align: right"]7.3[/TD]
[TD="class: eln-cell eln-percent-wrap"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: eln-row eln-other-999999 eln-other eln-party- eln-no-image"]
[TD="class: eln-cell eln-name"]Other[/TD]
[TD="class: eln-cell eln-votes, align: right"]1,909[/TD]
[TD="class: eln-cell eln-percent, align: right"]4.3[/TD]
[TD="class: eln-cell eln-percent-wrap"][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
44,154 votes, 22% reporting (207 of 960 precincts)
http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/idaho

Rubio needs to break 15% to get delegates.

They are way behind. Try http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/primaries/ID

 

[AuH20]

Ted Cruz is like Rick Santorum in that he can only win in states where religious fervor is popular. He will be rolled when the primaries shift to the northeast. He is the definition of a regional candidate as opposed to a bonafide national candidate.

 

[RJ Liberty]

How about Kansas?

What was the spread, about 26 points?

That was also a huge polling error (Sanders was polled at 23%, and won at 68%), but Kansas wasn't well-tracked, with only a few scattered polls. The big polling companies had no such excuse in Michigan. The numbers were just way, way off.

 

[Jan2017]

Idaho - Cruz leads by 11 points, with 29% reporting.

[TABLE="class: eln-table eln-results-table, width: 588"]
[TR]
[TH="class: eln-header eln-candidates"]CANDIDATES[/TH]
[TH="class: eln-header eln-votes, align: right"]VOTE[/TH]
[TH="class: eln-header eln-percent, align: right"]PCT.[/TH]
[TH="class: eln-header eln-percent-wrap"][/TH]
[/TR]
[TR="class: eln-row eln-cruz-61815 eln-ted-cruz eln-party-republican eln-has-image"]
[TD="class: eln-cell eln-name"] Ted Cruz[/TD]
[TD="class: eln-cell eln-votes, align: right"]23,833[/TD]
[TD="class: eln-cell eln-percent, align: right"]40.7%[/TD]
[TD="class: eln-cell eln-percent-wrap"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: eln-row eln-trump-8639 eln-donald-trump eln-party-republican eln-has-image"]
[TD="class: eln-cell eln-name"] Donald J. Trump[/TD]
[TD="class: eln-cell eln-votes, align: right"]17,447[/TD]
[TD="class: eln-cell eln-percent, align: right"]29.8[/TD]
[TD="class: eln-cell eln-percent-wrap"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: eln-row eln-rubio-53044 eln-marco-rubio eln-party-republican eln-has-image"]
[TD="class: eln-cell eln-name"] Marco Rubio[/TD]
[TD="class: eln-cell eln-votes, align: right"]10,756[/TD]
[TD="class: eln-cell eln-percent, align: right"]18.4[/TD]
[TD="class: eln-cell eln-percent-wrap"][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

 

[SpiritOf1776_J4]

35 % in, cruz ahead 10%. more trump territory left to count - and probably more population in them.

 

[r3volution 3.0]

Idaho - Cruz leads by 11 points, with 29% reporting.

[TABLE="class: eln-table eln-results-table, width: 588"]
[TR]
[TH="class: eln-header eln-candidates"]CANDIDATES[/TH]
[TH="class: eln-header eln-votes, align: right"]VOTE[/TH]
[TH="class: eln-header eln-percent, align: right"]PCT.[/TH]
[TH="class: eln-header eln-percent-wrap"][/TH]
[/TR]
[TR="class: eln-row eln-cruz-61815 eln-ted-cruz eln-party-republican eln-has-image"]
[TD="class: eln-cell eln-name"] Ted Cruz[/TD]
[TD="class: eln-cell eln-votes, align: right"]23,833[/TD]
[TD="class: eln-cell eln-percent, align: right"]40.7%[/TD]
[TD="class: eln-cell eln-percent-wrap"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: eln-row eln-trump-8639 eln-donald-trump eln-party-republican eln-has-image"]
[TD="class: eln-cell eln-name"] Donald J. Trump[/TD]
[TD="class: eln-cell eln-votes, align: right"]17,447[/TD]
[TD="class: eln-cell eln-percent, align: right"]29.8[/TD]
[TD="class: eln-cell eln-percent-wrap"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: eln-row eln-rubio-53044 eln-marco-rubio eln-party-republican eln-has-image"]
[TD="class: eln-cell eln-name"] Marco Rubio[/TD]
[TD="class: eln-cell eln-votes, align: right"]10,756[/TD]
[TD="class: eln-cell eln-percent, align: right"]18.4[/TD]
[TD="class: eln-cell eln-percent-wrap"][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

CNN is ahead, up to 40% reporting, same lead for Cruz more or less.

 

[MarcusI]

Ok, I'm doing a bold call again... Im calling Idaho for Cruz with est. 41% votes in. As its fully proportionally allocated, it wont be a huge win for him, but still. Remains to be seen if Rubio gets over the 20% threshold there.

 

[SpiritOf1776_J4]

hmm.. now they have cruz winning boise.. either the election results are in or they aren't.

 

[misterx]

That's it for Idaho. Cruz won.

 

[AuH20]

After Utah, life becomes extremely hard for Rafael Cruz. I would start praying and ask for some of that divine providence that he is known for mentioning.