Maine Saturday Open Thread

[carterm]

someone with twitter want to ask http://twitter.com/#!/BDNPolitics about the other hancock caucus? that should be done soon

 

[pauliticalfan]

BDNPolitics: The entrance to the school is clogged with dozens of sign-waving supporters for all four GOP presidential hopefuls #mepolitics

All four, wow....

Those Santorum and Gingrich supporters should be dropping their signs and picking up Ron Paul ones. If they don't vote for Ron Paul in Maine, they are kissing their candidate's chances of winning the nomination away. STUPID, STUPID PEOPLE.

 

[sailingaway]

Shit, looks like East Machias in in Washington....

300 people???

UGH.

It will depend on who turned out. If Santorum voters turned out as they usually would, in other words similar to last time, and we and Romney are splitting the rest.... It might get us close enough that the uncertainty of the Friday 'recount' comes into play.

 

[carterm]

This 208 vote deficit, does that include correcting the towns that the Maine GOP is currently missing? Waldo County, etc.?

I'm just wondering if we pick up 170 in Washington county does that mean we've lost or that it could still go either way? I don't trust the Maine GOP to correctly count the votes they didn't count at all the first time though...

yes, the jury is still out on whether these "new" numbers are clean, but this is the most up-to-date total we have.

 

[sailingaway]

BDNPolitics: The entrance to the school is clogged with dozens of sign-waving supporters for all four GOP presidential hopefuls #mepolitics

All four, wow....

Those Santorum and Gingrich supporters should be dropping their signs and picking up Ron Paul ones. If they don't vote for Ron Paul in Maine, they are kissing their candidate's chances of winning the nomination away. STUPID, STUPID PEOPLE.

No, that is what I was afraid of, they are all turning out to try to make this the real thing. They were handing out flyers at stores to drive more votes generally.

I'm sure they wanted us to regret ever questioning their wrong numbers. The voters are just standing for their guys, though. I'll check back for the result. Watching it happen isn't pleasant.

 

[rp08orbust]

I'm pretty sure there was cross over, don't you think? If not.... I don't know the vote turn out rate for other candidates, so I can't say.

The grassroots had 600 supporters identified with 250 hard confirmations of intention to vote and a lot of maybes. There was some overlap with people already contacted by the campaign, but we found a ton of new supporters, especially with calls to cell phones. I'd say anything less than 300 votes for Ron Paul is a disappointment.

 

[CTRattlesnake]

The grassroots had 600 supporters identified with 250 hard confirmations of intention to vote and a lot of maybes. There was some overlap with people already contacted by the campaign, but we found a ton of new supporters, especially with calls to cell phones. I'd say anything less than 300 votes for Ron Paul is a disappointment.

Considering that they're only 300 people there now...get ready for disappointment

 

[pauliticalfan]

GarrettQuinn: Paul probably needs 215 or so to win. Looks like 300 or so GOPers here #MECaucus

I guess our only chance is to get Santorum/Gingrich supporters to make a TACTICAL VOTE.

If you're supporting Santorum or Gingrich in the first place, I highly doubt you're capable of making a tactical vote.

 

[carterm]

really hoping there's 450 people there and people just can't count.

 

[pauliticalfan]

really hoping there's 450 people there and people just can't count.

We already know people can't count. Sadly, their not being able to count always hurts us.

 

[rp08orbust]

It may come down to how persuasive the "tactical vote" caucus speechs are with Santorum supporters.

 

[CTRattlesnake]

It may come down to how persuasive the "tactical vote" caucus speechs are with Santorum supporters.

I wouldnt expect much logic from santorum people

 

[pauliticalfan]

Alright, just announce the results so I can go get some lunch.

 

[cornell]

Did the word get out to potential speech-makers at the Caucus to stress a tactical vote against Romney?

 

[RonPaul101.com]

yes, the jury is still out on whether these "new" numbers are clean, but this is the most up-to-date total we have.

Makes sense, I just remember reading that the Paul camp believed based on the WTV that they were down about 140 going into today. Again, this is anything but solid confirmation. Frankly, I don;t trust the Maine GOP either way really. If Paul gets ahead today even without the corrections/full counts, it's not impossible that Webster won't find more "errors" that help Romney, and if we are still down a couple of dozen votes today it's not impossible that we could still win if the vote is truly clean.

Sadly in this country, American Idol has their vote conducted by a private certified actuarial firm, while the Maine GOP who could be deciding the next President uses Romney supporters to "count" the votes fairly.

 

[sailingaway]

Makes sense, I just remember reading that the Paul camp believed based on the WTV that they were down about 140 going into today. Again, this is anything but solid confirmation. Frankly, I don;t trust the Maine GOP either way really. If Paul gets ahead today even without the corrections/full counts, it's not impossible that Webster won't find more "errors" that help Romney, and if we are still down a couple of dozen votes today it's not impossible that we could still win if the vote is truly clean.

Sadly in this country, American Idol has their vote conducted by a private certified actuarial firm, while the Maine GOP who could be deciding the next President uses Romney supporters to "count" the votes fairly.

given they threw away the ballots, per Webster, and all vote numbers are completely whatever he writes down, it is a bit hard to see this one going our way. We know what NOT to allow in future caucuses -- private vote reporting.

 

[parocks]

Parocks I think I have seen you visit that google document (where we collected info about possible Ron voters).

Did you make any calls?What is your expectation based on those calls?

No, I didn't make calls. I added the phone numbers. I ran facebook ads. They're still running actually, when I hear they've broken off into towns, I'll stop em.

Campaign Reach?
2,720
Frequency?
24.0

I hit 2720 males 17-44 an average of 24 times. Cost almost nothing.

I've also been asking people, offering $100 to rent out 2 tables in a restaurant to use as a grassroots HQ for extra GOTV.

Neither the official campaign or the grassroots has any interest in getting our base to the polls. If an 18 year old male likes Ron Paul, we'll call his grandma on the phone.

The heart of our GOTV system is lists that 18 year old males aren't on. The 18 year old male is never told anything by anybody about when and where the election is. How to register, anything like that. Completely ignored. We send superbrochures to supervoters. "Because they vote" But they might be voting because they're bugged all the time, get mail they throw away. Does the 18 year old get any reminders? NO. We just whine because they don't show up.

It's hard, I know. We need to solve this problem (the fact that we don't do any Extra GOTV) if we're going actually win votes, instead of just delegates.

 

[Lightweis]

update?

 

[sailingaway]

No, I didn't make calls. I added the phone numbers. I ran facebook ads. They're still running actually, when I hear they've broken off into towns, I'll stop em.

Campaign Reach?
2,720
Frequency?
24.0

I hit 2720 males 17-44 an average of 24 times. Cost almost nothing.

I've also been asking people, offering $100 to rent out 2 tables in a restaurant to use as a grassroots HQ for extra GOTV.

Neither the official campaign or the grassroots has any interest in getting our base to the polls. If an 18 year old male likes Ron Paul, we'll call his grandma on the phone.

The heart of our GOTV system is lists that 18 year old males aren't on. The 18 year old male is never told anything by anybody about when and where the election is. How to register, anything like that. Completely ignored. We send superbrochures to supervoters. "Because they vote" But they might be voting because they're bugged all the time, get mail they throw away. Does the 18 year old get any reminders? NO. We just whine because they don't show up.

It's hard, I know. We need to solve this problem (the fact that we don't do any Extra GOTV) if we're going actually win votes, instead of just delegates.

I think there is something to be said for the fact that OUR base isn't plugged the same way others are. We seem overly represented on cell phones, too. We may well need a different sort of GOTV.

Ron is speaking right at the delegate selection meetings in two instances in North Dakota. He has given caucus speeches. I think the campaign is trying to adapt to this.

 

[kill the banks]

I think there is something to be said for the fact that OUR base isn't plugged the same way others are. We seem overly represented on cell phones, too. We may well need a different sort of GOTV.

Ron is speaking right at the delegate selection meetings in two instances in North Dakota. He has given caucus speeches. I think the campaign is trying to adapt to this.

good