List of economists who predicted the economic crisis?

[rpwi]

Duplicate post...

 

[EcoWarrier]

Ron Paul
Peter Schiff
Michael Burry
Kyle Bass
John Paulson

Fred Harrison in 2005 and predicted the crash virtually to the month. He alsos predicted it in 1997. Harrison identified the 18 year land boom & bust cycle. It is highly predictable.
http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/property/bust-will-follow-boom---but-when

Extracts from above link...

The 18-year cycle

House prices can’t rise indefinitely for the simple reason that at some point they become unaffordable. Wages can’t rise as fast as house prices can when a speculative frenzy is underway, so there will come a point when the average man can’t buy the average house, and prices have to fall as a result. My research shows that this tends to work in 18-year cycles. There are usually 14 years of rising prices followed by four years of recession across the broader economy. I’ve looked at data across four continents and at 300 years of British economic history and it seems that this 18-year cycle is present across the globe, irrespective of the distinctive characteristics of each economy – whether the country is resource-rich (USA) or resource-poor (Japan), or whether the population is high density (the UK), or low density (Australia).

It all happens in 2008

So when will the crunch really come? History suggests that things will start to collapse in 2008 (18 years on from 1990 when the last bubble burst). But there are a few good reasons apart from the historical 18-year cycle that should make us think that the bubble will run to 2008.​

The Crash was land fuelled - the root cause. But Fred, as does Micheal Hudson, has an answer to stop it occurring again and encourage enterprise and discourage harmful speculation. Land Valuation Taxation and no Income Tax.

 

[EcoWarrier]

Here is a sample list:

http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/...ncial-crisis-post-keynesian-macroeconomics-2/

Analyst Academic Affiliation School Orientation Model

Dean Baker Yes Center for Economic and Policy Research Neoclassical Keynesian No
Wynne Godley Yes Levy Institute; Deceased 2010 Post Keynesian Lerner Yes
Fred Harrison No UK Media Georgist No
Michael Hudson Yes University of Missouri, Kansas City Classical Marx No
Eric Janszen No US Website Eclectic Austrian No
Stephen Keen Yes University of Western Sydney Post Keynesian Minsky Yes
Jakob Brøchner Madsen & Jens Kjaer Sørensen Yes Copenhagen University (Monash University since 2006) Neoclassical Keynesian No
Kurt Richebächer No Deceased 2007 Austrian No
Nouriel Roubini Yes New York University Neoclassical Keynesian No
Peter Schiff No Euro Pacific Capital Austrian No
Robert Shiller Yes Yale University Neoclassical Behavioural No

Quite the diverse collection... Steve Keen basically figured it out based on the debt to GDP ratio. This is a refreshing approach as most status quo economists don't consider debt (well especially private debt) to be that important (like Krugman). Their attitude is that if you are in debt that that means somebody else has credit so it balances out...which is absurd of course... Mainstream economics is all about a simplistic dichotomy of 'aggregate demand' and 'aggregate supply' that is tweaked by fed funds targetting and public debt levels...it's a complete mess and it's no wonder that guys like Krugman had no idea that the crisis would happen.

The above list is those who predicted it. Michael Hudson clearly has Geoist leanings and firmly classical economics. Fred Harrison is firmly classical economics.

 

[EcoWarrier]

In New York City in the 1920s many New Yorkers suffered from lack of housing. To solve the problem, Governor Al Smith borrowed a page from Henry George and passed a law allowing New York City for the next ten years to tax land but not the buildings on it. Unfortunately it was only for 10 years. The end of the LVT caused great economic problems.

In this 10 years, new construction more than tripled and created lower cost apartments. There were more jobs and higher wages, more business for merchants who sold goods to the employed workers.

Economic good times in New York came to an end, though, when owners in 1928 began to anticipate the expiration of the 10 year tax-shift law. The drastic decline in building starts, not the stock market crash of 1929, was the real trigger of the Great Depression of the 1930s. Watching land prices inflate in the 1980's, land-focused econometricians predicted land prices to hit bottom in about 1990, then next around 2008.

 

[dirtdigger]

I'm sure I'm not the first person to ask for this. Anyone know of a list of economists, large and small, Austrians and non-Austrians, who can credibly claim to have predicted the 2007/2008 housing bubble and collapse?

William Engdahl. And the details he provided on how events would unfold is exactly what happened.

http://globalresearch.ca/articles/ENG407A.html

28 July 2004

 

[Zippyjuan]

Fred Harrison in 2005 and predicted the crash virtually to the month. He alsos predicted it in 1997. Harrison identified the 18 year land boom & bust cycle. It is highly predictable.
http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/property/bust-will-follow-boom---but-when

Extracts from above link...

The 18-year cycle

House prices can’t rise indefinitely for the simple reason that at some point they become unaffordable. Wages can’t rise as fast as house prices can when a speculative frenzy is underway, so there will come a point when the average man can’t buy the average house, and prices have to fall as a result. My research shows that this tends to work in 18-year cycles. There are usually 14 years of rising prices followed by four years of recession across the broader economy. I’ve looked at data across four continents and at 300 years of British economic history and it seems that this 18-year cycle is present across the globe, irrespective of the distinctive characteristics of each economy – whether the country is resource-rich (USA) or resource-poor (Japan), or whether the population is high density (the UK), or low density (Australia).

It all happens in 2008

So when will the crunch really come? History suggests that things will start to collapse in 2008 (18 years on from 1990 when the last bubble burst). But there are a few good reasons apart from the historical 18-year cycle that should make us think that the bubble will run to 2008.​

The Crash was land fuelled - the root cause. But Fred, as does Micheal Hudson, has an answer to stop it occurring again and encourage enterprise and discourage harmful speculation. Land Valuation Taxation and no Income Tax.

We can check out his 18 year theory. Here is a list of recessions and depressions in the US (they don't call them depressions since the Great One- I guess that idea would be too depressing so now they are all recessions. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States

Let's look at the 20th Century. We had recessions in the following years:
1902- 1904
Panic of 1907
Panic 1910- 1911
Recession 1913- 14
Post WW1 Recession- 1918- 19
Depression 1920- 21
1923- 24 Recession
1926- 27 Recession
1920- 33 Great Depression
1937
1945
1949
1953
1958
1960- 61
1969- 70
1973-75
1980
1981- 82
1990- 91
2000- 2001
2007- 2009

Now if there is an 18 year cycle and we start with the Great Depression they should happen 1929 (start of the Great Depresssion), 1947, 1965, 1983, 2001, 2019....

What has historically happened with housing prices in that time? They pretty much rose slowly for over 100 years- until this recent bubble happened. Housing basically kept pace with inflation until the speculation of the first decade of this century.

http://observationsandnotes.blogspot.com/2011/06/us-housing-prices-since-1900.html

From that link:

You might be more interested to know that the average annual home price increase for the U.S. during the whole 1900 - 2010 period was only 3.3%/year -- just a shade better than the inflation rate of 3.1%/year.

 

[eric_cartman]

Robert Prechter predicted it in his book conquer the crash

 

[musicmax]

And therefore equally no wonder that the proposed solutions of these pointy-headed magic bubble worshipers ("...create a housing bubble to replace the Nasdaq bubble..." -Krugman) are the bubbles themselves - more of the very cause of the crisis in the first place.

Actually if you read that Kruggy quote in context you'll see it was more prediction than recommendation, that he himself was quoting a Pimco exec, and that he actually didn't think Greenspan would be "successful" in creating the bubble:

"The basic point is that the recession of 2001 wasn't a typical postwar slump, brought on when an inflation-fighting Fed raises interest rates and easily ended by a snapback in housing and consumer spending when the Fed brings rates back down again. This was a prewar-style recession, a morning after brought on by irrational exuberance. To fight this recession the Fed needs more than a snapback; it needs soaring household spending to offset moribund business investment. And to do that, as Paul McCulley of Pimco put it, Alan Greenspan needs to create a housing bubble to replace the Nasdaq bubble.

Judging by Mr. Greenspan's remarkably cheerful recent testimony, he still thinks he can pull that off. But the Fed chairman's crystal ball has been cloudy lately; remember how he urged Congress to cut taxes to head off the risk of excessive budget surpluses? And a sober look at recent data is not encouraging.

Bear in mind that government officials have a stake in accentuating the positive. The administration needs a recovery because, with deficits exploding, the only way it can justify that tax cut is by pretending that it was just what the economy needed. Mr. Greenspan needs one to avoid awkward questions about his own role in creating the stock market bubble.

But wishful thinking aside, I just don't understand the grounds for optimism. Who, exactly, is about to start spending a lot more? At this point it's a lot easier to tell a story about how the recovery will stall than about how it will speed up."

 

[EcoWarrier]

We can check out his 18 year theory.

WW2 did upset the cycle, but it all started to mesh in and go on track again.