List of economists who predicted the economic crisis?

economics102

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I'm sure I'm not the first person to ask for this. Anyone know of a list of economists, large and small, Austrians and non-Austrians, who can credibly claim to have predicted the 2007/2008 housing bubble and collapse?
 
This probably isn't going to make sense to you because you seem to be premising the bankers run on real estate as the cause of the economic "crisis" but infrastructurally speaking, many have actually predicted the "economic" crisis. They reside in the science community though. Not the banker one.

Don't take that the wrong way. I'm not peeing on your cheerios. But I'm right. Although I'm sure many will disagree in scope.

When I say science community, I'm not referencing Frank Luntz and that band of hoo ha's though. I mean the real ones who actually do comprehend change.
 
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This probably isn't going to make sense to you because you seem to be premising the bankers run on real estate as the cause of the economic "crisis" but infrastructurally speaking, many have actually predicted the "economic" crisis. They reside in the science community though. Not the banker one.

Don't take that the wrong way. I'm not peeing on your cheerios. But I'm right. Although I'm sure many will disagree in scope.

When I say science community, I'm not referencing Frank Luntz and that band of hoo ha's though. I mean the real ones who actually do comprehend change.

.....and get absolutely no federal funding.
 
Yep. That's exactly right, Paulbot.

Anyhoo. As far as what economics102 was saying, at least we can follow the money if history is any kind of teacher.

Assuming that "money" is and should the be the premise relative to economics on the whole. It really shouldn't be but it is what it is. Problem, reaction, solution...


1694 – Bank of England Established
First Central Bank established in the UK. Served as model for most modern central banks.

1744- Mayer Amschel Rothschild, Founder of the Rothschild Banking Empire, is Born in Frankfurt, Germany
Mayer Amschel Rothschild extended his banking empire across Europe by carefully placing his five sons in key positions. They set up banks in Frankfurt, Vienna, London, Naples, and Paris. By the mid 1800’s they dominated the banking industry, lending to governments around the world and people such as the Vanderbilts, Carnegies, and Cecil Rhodes.

1757- Colonial Scrip Issued in US
Debt free, fiat currency was printed in the public interest. As Benjamin Franklin said,
“In the colonies we issue our own money. It is called colonial scrip. We issue it in proper proportion to the demands of trade and industry to make the products pass easily from the producers to the consumers. In this manner, creating for ourselves our own paper money, we control its purchasing power and we have no interest to pay no one.”

1776 – American Independence

1791 – Congress Creates the First US Bank – A Private Company, Partly Owned by Foreigners – to Handle the Financial Needs of the New Central Government

Previously, the 13 states had their own banks, currencies and financial institutions.

1816 – The Privately Owned Second Bank of the US was Chartered – It Served as the Main Depository for Government Revenue, Making it a Highly Profitable Bank

1832 – Andrew Jackson Campaigns Against the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] Bank of the US and Vetoes Bank Charter Renewal
Andrew Jackson was skeptical of the central banking system and believed it gave too few men too much power and caused inflation. He was also a proponent of gold and silver and an outspoken opponent of the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] National Bank. The Charter expired in 1836.

1833 – President Jackson Issues Executive Order to Stop Depositing Government Funds Into Bank of US
By September 1833, government funds were being deposited into state chartered banks.

Jan 30, 1835 – Jackson Escapes Assassination
Assassin misfired twice.

1833-1837 – Manufactured “boom” created by central bankers – money supply Increases 84%, Spurred by the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] Bank of the US
The total money supply rose from $150 million to $267 million.[1]

1837-1843 – Terrible Depression
343 of the 850 banks in the US closed entirely as largest banks consolidated wealth and power.[2]

1861 – American Civil War


1862-1863 Lincoln Over Rules Debt-Based Money and Issues Greenbacks to Fund the War

Bankers would only lend the government money under certain conditions and at high interest rates, so Lincoln issued his own currency – “greenbacks” – through the US Treasury, and made them legal tender. His soldiers went on to win the war, followed by great economic expansion.

April 15, 1865 – Lincoln Assassinated

1881- President James Garfield, Staunch Proponent of “Honest Money” Backed by Gold and Silver, was Assassinated

Garfield opposed fiat currency (money that was not backed by any physical object) and was a strong advocate of a bi-metal monetary system. He had the second shortest Presidency in history.

1907- Banking Panic of 1907
The New York Stock Exchange dropped dramatically as everyone tried to get their money out of the banks at the same time across the nation. This banking panic spurred debate for banking reform. JP Morgan and others gathered to create an image of concern and stability in the face of the panic, which eventually led to the formation of the Federal Reserve. The founders of the Federal Reserve pretended like the bankers were opposed to the idea of its formation in order to mislead the public into believing that the Federal Reserve would help to regulate bankers when in fact it really gave even more power to private bankers, but in a less transparent way.

1908 – JP Morgan Associate and Rockefeller Relative Nelson Aldrich Heads New National Monetary Commission
Senate Republican leader, Nelson Aldrich, heads the new National Monetary Commission that was created to study the cause of the banking panic. Aldrich had close ties with J.P. Morgan and his daughter married John D. Rockefeller.

1910 – Bankers Meet Secretly on Jekyll Island to Draft Federal Reserve Banking Legislation
Over the course of a week, some of the nations most powerful bankers met secretly off the coast of Georgia, drafting a proposal for a private Central Banking system. Those in attendance included Nelson Aldrich, A.P. Andrew (Assistant Secretary of the Treasury), Paul Warburg (Kuhn, Loeb, & Co.), Frank Vanderlip (President of National City Bank of New York), Charles D. Norton (president of the Morgan-dominated First National Bank of New York), Henry Davidson (Senior Partner of JP Morgan Co.), and Benjamin Strong (representing JP Morgan).

Dec 23, 1913 – Federal Reserve Act Passed
Two days before Christmas, while many members of Congress were away on vacation, the Federal Reserve Act was passed, creating the Central banking system we have today. It was based on the Aldrich plan drafted on Jekyll Island and gave private bankers supreme authority over the economy. They are now able to create money out of nothing (and loan it out at interest), make decisions without government approval, and control the amount of money in circulation.

1913 – Income tax established -16[SUP]th[/SUP] Amendment Ratified
Taxes ensured that citizens would cover the payment of debt due to the Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, which was also created in 1913.The 16[SUP]th[/SUP] Amendment stated: “The Congress shall have power to lay and collect taxes on incomes, from whatever source derived, without apportionment among the several States, and without regard to any census or enumeration.”


1914 – JP Morgan and Co. Profits from Financing both sides of War and Purchasing Weapons
J.P. Morgan and Co. made a deal with the Bank of England to give them a monopoly on underwriting war bonds for the UK and France. They also invested in the suppliers of war equipment to Britain and France.

November 1914 – Federal Reserve Banks Open

1921-1929 – The “Roaring 20’s” – The Federal Reserve Floods the Economy with Cash and Credit

From 1921 to 1929 the Federal Reserve increased the money supply by $28 billion, almost a 62% increase over an eight-year period.[3] This artificially created another “boom”.

1929 – Federal Reserve Contracts the Money Supply
In 1929, the Federal Reserve began to pull money out of circulation as loans were paid back. They created a “bust” which was inevitable after issuing so much credit in the years before. The Federal Reserve’s actions triggered the banking crisis, which led to the Great Depression.

October 24, 1929 – “Black Thursday”, Stock Market Crash

The most devastating stock market crash in history. Billions of dollars in value were consolidated into the private banker’s hands at the expense of everyone else.

1930- Great Depression Begins

1929-1933- Federal Reserve Reduces Money Supply by 33%

June 4, 1963 – Kennedy Issued an Executive Order (11110) that Authorized the US Treasury to Issue Silver Certificates, Threatening the Federal Reserve’s Monopoly on Money
This government issued currency would bypass the governments need to borrow from bankers at interest.

Nov. 22, 1963 - Kennedy Assassinated
December 1963 – Johnson Reverses Kennedy’s Banking Rule and Restores Power to the Federal Reserve

1999 – The Financial Services Modernization Act Allows Banks to Grow Even Larger
Many economists and politicians have recognized that this legislation played a key part in the subprime mortgage crisis of 2007. It repealed part of the Glass-Steagall Act of 1933 and allowed investment banks, commercial banks, securities firms, and insurance companies to merge. Citigroup was a major proponent of this particular bill (it had already merged with Travelers Insurance and needed to find a way to legally keep the corporation together). The government gave Citi officials the opportunity to review and approve drafts before the legislation was introduced and to modify it as they desired. Robert Rubin, Treasury Secretary at the time, helped move the bill forward in early 1999. He then stepped down from the Treasury position in July, joined CitiGroup in October, and the bill was passed in November. The Center for Responsive Politics also found that members of Congress who supported the bill received twice as much money from the banking sector than those who opposed it.[4]

2000-2003 – The Federal Reserve Extends “Easy Credit”, Lowers the Federal Fund Rate from 6.5% to 1%[5] and Sets up Another Financial “Boom”

2004 – Investment Banks and the SEC Cut a Deal

On April 28, 2004, five of the biggest investment banks, including Bear Stearns and Goldman Sachs (then run by Henry Paulson, who later became Secretary of the Treasury), met with members of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), urging them to allow voluntary regulation of themselves, so they could determine themselves how much money they could make up out of nothing to loan into circulation. This is known as the banks leverage ratio, or amount of assets to borrowing ratio. Up until 2004, the amount of debt the banks could take on was limited. However, in 2004, the SEC agreed to let banks regulate themselves and take on as much debt as they wanted, therefore unleashing billions of dollars for high-risk investment packages. Under this new voluntary regulation the Bear Stearns ratio, for example, jumped to 33 to 1.[6] Not long after, the economy collapsed and financial wealth and power was again further consolidated into the hands of the private bankers who run the Federal Reserve.

2004-2006 – Federal Reserve Sets Off New “Bust” by Making Loans and Adjustable Rate Mortgages More Expensive, Raising Fed Fund Rates to 5.25%[7], This contracts the market.

2007-2010 – Worst Financial Crisis Since the Great Depression

The financial crisis impacted people around the world – millions lost their homes, jobs, and retirement funds. Many of the smaller banks were absorbed by others, which allowed the biggest banks to further consolidate wealth and eliminate competition. In 2008, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. bought up both Washington Mutual (the biggest bank to “fail” in the history of the United States) and Bear Stearns (the fifth largest investment bank).

2010 – JP Morgan Chase Reports Record Profits
The bank made a record profit of $17.4 Billion in 2010. [8]


http://www.thrivemovement.com/follow_the_money
 
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I'm sure I'm not the first person to ask for this. Anyone know of a list of economists, large and small, Austrians and non-Austrians, who can credibly claim to have predicted the 2007/2008 housing bubble and collapse?

Ron Paul
Peter Schiff
Michael Burry
Kyle Bass
John Paulson
 
Ron Paul
Peter Schiff
Michael Burry
Kyle Bass
John Paulson

Also what about [Have they also not been keen on such issues?]:

Bob Chapman (RIP)
Catherine Austin Fitts
Max Keiser
Naomi Wolf
Nomi Prins
(And perhaps to a certain extent Aaron Russo (RIP))
 
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Oh also, didn't Gerald Celente figure it out pretty early? I'm fairly sure he did, which is how he got his rep as a doomsayer.
 
Henry Hazlitt 11/28/1894 to 7/9/1993
Economics in One Lesson, Section 2, Credit Diverts Prodution

The proposal for government loans to private individuals or projects, in brief sees B and forgets A. It sees the people into whose hands the capital is put; it forgets those who would otherwise have had it. It sees the project to which capital is granted; it forgets the projects from which capital is thereby withheld. It sees the immediate benefit to one group; it overlooks the losses to other groups, and the net loss to the community as a whole.

The case against government-guaranteed loans and mortgages to private businesses and persons is almost as strong as, though less obvious than, the case against direct government loans and mortgages. The advocates of government-guaranteed mortgages also forget that what is being lent is ultimately real capital, which is limited in supply, and that they are helping identified B at the expense of some unidentified A. Government-guaranteed home mortgages, especially when a negligible down payment or no down payment whatever is required, inevitably mean more bad loans than otherwise. They force the general taxpayer to subsidize the bad risks and to defray the losses. They encourage people to “buy” houses that they cannot really afford. They tend eventually to bring about an oversupply of houses as compared with other things. They temporarily overstimulate building, raise the cost of building for everybody (including the buyers of the homes with the guaranteed mortgages), and may mislead the building industry into an eventually costly overexpansion. In brief in the long run they do not increase overall national production but encourage malinvestment.
 
Here is a sample list:

http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/...ncial-crisis-post-keynesian-macroeconomics-2/

Analyst Academic Affiliation School Orientation Model

Dean Baker Yes Center for Economic and Policy Research Neoclassical Keynesian No
Wynne Godley Yes Levy Institute; Deceased 2010 Post Keynesian Lerner Yes
Fred Harrison No UK Media Georgist No
Michael Hudson Yes University of Missouri, Kansas City Classical Marx No
Eric Janszen No US Website Eclectic Austrian No
Stephen Keen Yes University of Western Sydney Post Keynesian Minsky Yes
Jakob Brøchner Madsen & Jens Kjaer Sørensen Yes Copenhagen University (Monash University since 2006) Neoclassical Keynesian No
Kurt Richebächer No Deceased 2007 Austrian No
Nouriel Roubini Yes New York University Neoclassical Keynesian No
Peter Schiff No Euro Pacific Capital Austrian No
Robert Shiller Yes Yale University Neoclassical Behavioural No

Quite the diverse collection... Steve Keen basically figured it out based on the debt to GDP ratio. This is a refreshing approach as most status quo economists don't consider debt (well especially private debt) to be that important (like Krugman). Their attitude is that if you are in debt that that means somebody else has credit so it balances out...which is absurd of course... Mainstream economics is all about a simplistic dichotomy of 'aggregate demand' and 'aggregate supply' that is tweaked by fed funds targetting and public debt levels...it's a complete mess and it's no wonder that guys like Krugman had no idea that the crisis would happen.
 
...it's no wonder that guys like Krugman had no idea that the crisis would happen.

And therefore equally no wonder that the proposed solutions of these pointy-headed magic bubble worshipers ("...create a housing bubble to replace the Nasdaq bubble..." -Krugman) are the bubbles themselves - more of the very cause of the crisis in the first place.
 
Here is a sample list:

http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/...ncial-crisis-post-keynesian-macroeconomics-2/

Analyst Academic Affiliation School Orientation Model

Dean Baker Yes Center for Economic and Policy Research Neoclassical Keynesian No
Wynne Godley Yes Levy Institute; Deceased 2010 Post Keynesian Lerner Yes
Fred Harrison No UK Media Georgist No
Michael Hudson Yes University of Missouri, Kansas City Classical Marx No
Eric Janszen No US Website Eclectic Austrian No
Stephen Keen Yes University of Western Sydney Post Keynesian Minsky Yes
Jakob Brøchner Madsen & Jens Kjaer Sørensen Yes Copenhagen University (Monash University since 2006) Neoclassical Keynesian No
Kurt Richebächer No Deceased 2007 Austrian No
Nouriel Roubini Yes New York University Neoclassical Keynesian No
Peter Schiff No Euro Pacific Capital Austrian No
Robert Shiller Yes Yale University Neoclassical Behavioural No

Quite the diverse collection... Steve Keen basically figured it out based on the debt to GDP ratio. This is a refreshing approach as most status quo economists don't consider debt (well especially private debt) to be that important (like Krugman). Their attitude is that if you are in debt that that means somebody else has credit so it balances out...which is absurd of course... Mainstream economics is all about a simplistic dichotomy of 'aggregate demand' and 'aggregate supply' that is tweaked by fed funds targetting and public debt levels...it's a complete mess and it's no wonder that guys like Krugman had no idea that the crisis would happen.
the prediction had to have some timing attached to it. Does that not leave out Austrians.
 
the prediction had to have some timing attached to it. Does that not leave out Austrians.
The Austrian business cycle deserves a lot of credit for predicting in general that these crisis will occur predictably as long as we have FRB and Fed Funds targeting. That three of the mentioned were Austrians is pretty impressive.
 
the prediction had to have some timing attached to it. Does that not leave out Austrians.

Peter Schiff for example was very specific when he talked about the collapse of the housing market and how it will likely occur. I guess that counts.

I don't know why Keen says that none of the mentioned Austrians have a "model". The ABCT is a pretty conclusive model, it's not mathematical or quantitative though.


Btw, I've got an economics lecturer who is absolutely obsessed with Keen. It's a torture to hear him rant about how unfair wealth distribution is, why we need a huge one term property tax to clear the debt because all debt is wealth on the other hand and why liberation of the banking sector and missing regulations caused the banking crisis. When he was like, "Basically everything you hear here is totally wrong, neo-classical enconomics is a joke and has been disproven!" I was like, "Go on!" And then all he was criticizing were the micro-economic foundations of the neo-classical theory (because according to Keen the Sonnenschein–Mantel–Debreu theorem rebuts it... which I highly doubt to be relevant at all on a larger scale) but being a post-keynesian he fully agrees on macro-economic aggregate demand- / multiplier-theory.
 
I guess I misunderstood the list. I thought the "NO" after the name meant that, that person did not predict the collapse. I've watched this http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jj8rMwdQf6k and this http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EgMclXX5msc many times. I am a big fan of Peter and Tom Woods
Sorry...I should have clarified...the 'no' just refers to whether they used mathametical models. Only Godley and Keen did on this page:

http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/...ncial-crisis-post-keynesian-macroeconomics-2/

All 12 predicted the crisis though which is still impressive.
 
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