latest VIRGINIA poll

[francisco]

If we have each Ron Paul supporter in VA standing outside each polling place handing out flyers making CLEAR differentiation between RP and Romney...

Is that legal in VA? In many states politicking within a specified distance of the polling place entrance is illegal.

 

[Paul Or Nothing II]

Ron Paul trails Mitt Romney by 35 points , what the heck is going on man!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! we cant even get the anti romney votes when its just romney and paul on the ballot!!!... please im hoping someone can pick this poll apart on how its not accurate!!!! pleaseeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee????????????????

http://www.thestatecolumn.com/artic...-romney-in-virginia-by-35-points-latest-poll/

Because mainstreamers see Romney as "more electable" & "capable of beating Obama" & this is why I've been saying for ages now that we MUST make the electorate realize that Ron's appeal with Independents & Democrats makes him the ONLY candidate that can beat Obama!

I haven't seen one electability ad yet? WHY?

The biggest meme against Paul is that he's "unelectable" against Obama which is absolutely NOT true & unless the truth is brought forward, Paul isn't going to be mainstreamers' default choice

 

[ChiChiChi]

So? That would make them no less likely to support Paul to ensure their candidate doesn't fall behind Romney.

It is simply a failure of GOTV of the 3 (4, if we include "Operation Hilarity" individuals) if we're not doing better. Santorum and Gingrich supporters WILL come out to deny Romney delegates if they know to do so.

No...you are just ASSUMING that all the voters/supporters of Gingrich and Santorum hate Romney. And that is not the case. And that also is not how most people ACT. Most people don't strategize that deeply. They will either not bother to vote, or they will pick their next choice, even if it means hurting their top choice. Especially Gingrich supporters who mostly realize he is out of it.

I am not saying that Ron Paul won't pick up ANY of those undecideds. Just that people who think he will get a big majority are way off. I'd say an OPTIMISTIC scenario would be about a third of those undecideds going to Mitt Romney, a third going to Ron Paul and a third not voting. But more likely, the percentages will stay pretty close to the same, with Romney picking up about 60-65% of those undecideds (not counting those that don't vote) and Ron Paul getting about 30-35%

No matter how many people call these undecideds, a large portion are not going to vote. Unless there is some important local election that would make them want to vote, like a mayor that they want to support or get rid of, many will stay home. (And by the way, it is highly doubtful that Gingrich and Santorums campaign are going to spend money and time trying to GOTV for Ron Paul. So it would not be a failure for 2 of those 3 (or 4) if these poll numbers hold up.)

And like it or not, Ron Paul's poll/vote problems come from the fact that the age group of his main supporters is the age group that doesn't vote. Sure..they go to rallies. But they go to rallies for the spectacle ad to be part of a crowd. Hell. my freshman year they were going to demolish my dorm that summer. Most of my floormates HATED the dorm and wanted to move to a different one the next year. But they still staged a protest in the presidents office even though it was AGAINST their best interest since everyone that would have been displaced from the dorm would have had a much higher priority when it came to getting room assignments for the next year. But they did it because it was a big party. And even when I pointed this out to them, they said they didn't care. It was fun. (At least 4 of them ended up NOT getting into the dorms they wanted when they would have if our building hadn't been saved from demolition.)

Whether people want to accept it or not, half the people who show up for those rallies have no intention of voting at all. Probably aren't even registered. And of the half that DO intend to vote for him, probably at last half forget when the day comes, or are hungover, etc.

 

[parocks]

Most people in VA don't know they won't be able to write-in - or that their candidate is even off the ballot.

Need to get the word out. If you support Santorum, deny Romney delegates by voting Paul. If you support Newt, deny Romney delegates by voting Paul.

No conversion needed at all, just pure GOTV for all 3 camps.

 

[digitaldean]

People need to look at the page that the poll was take from:

http://roanoke.edu/Documents/rcpoll/Frequencies.RepublicanPrimary.March2012.pdf

19. If the primary election was held today, would you vote for Mitt Romney or Ron Paul?
Romney 56% (189)
Paul 21% (71)
Undecided 23% (76)

20. If you could vote for any of the Republicans who are still running for the Presidential
nomination, would you vote for [ROTATE]
Mitt Romney 31% (110)
Ron Paul 12% (44)
Newt Gingrich 13% (45)
Rick Santorum 27% (97)
Uncertain 17% (62)

 

[LibertyIn08]

No...you are just ASSUMING that all the voters/supporters of Gingrich and Santorum hate Romney. And that is not the case. And that also is not how most people ACT. Most people don't strategize that deeply. They will either not bother to vote, or they will pick their next choice, even if it means hurting their top choice. Especially Gingrich supporters who mostly realize he is out of it.

I am not saying that Ron Paul won't pick up ANY of those undecideds. Just that people who think he will get a big majority are way off. I'd say an OPTIMISTIC scenario would be about a third of those undecideds going to Mitt Romney, a third going to Ron Paul and a third not voting. But more likely, the percentages will stay pretty close to the same, with Romney picking up about 60-65% of those undecideds (not counting those that don't vote) and Ron Paul getting about 30-35%

No matter how many people call these undecideds, a large portion are not going to vote. Unless there is some important local election that would make them want to vote, like a mayor that they want to support or get rid of, many will stay home. (And by the way, it is highly doubtful that Gingrich and Santorums campaign are going to spend money and time trying to GOTV for Ron Paul. So it would not be a failure for 2 of those 3 (or 4) if these poll numbers hold up.)

And like it or not, Ron Paul's poll/vote problems come from the fact that the age group of his main supporters is the age group that doesn't vote. Sure..they go to rallies. But they go to rallies for the spectacle ad to be part of a crowd. Hell. my freshman year they were going to demolish my dorm that summer. Most of my floormates HATED the dorm and wanted to move to a different one the next year. But they still staged a protest in the presidents office even though it was AGAINST their best interest since everyone that would have been displaced from the dorm would have had a much higher priority when it came to getting room assignments for the next year. But they did it because it was a big party. And even when I pointed this out to them, they said they didn't care. It was fun. (At least 4 of them ended up NOT getting into the dorms they wanted when they would have if our building hadn't been saved from demolition.)

Whether people want to accept it or not, half the people who show up for those rallies have no intention of voting at all. Probably aren't even registered. And of the half that DO intend to vote for him, probably at last half forget when the day comes, or are hungover, etc.

The crosstabs of the exit polls from previous contests and the upcoming contests all indicate that there is a sizeable group that will vote for any candidate but Romney. Take a look at the polls earlier in the cycle that asked for permutations of support - Romney would land in the top and bottom. That is the sign of a strong pro and anti-pool. The numbers you 'cite' seem to be pulled from a hat. I can find no polling or comprehensive datasets that would support that breakdown.

Whether Ron does well will come down to: 1. GOTV for Paul supporters (as you mentioned, this has been a poor area) 2. GOTV for the anti-Romney bloc that will vote 3. Any cross-over voters that we can snag.

By the way, I certainly didn't mention rallies. Not sure where that line of thinking came from.

 

[LibertyIn08]

People need to look at the page that the poll was take from:

http://roanoke.edu/Documents/rcpoll/Frequencies.RepublicanPrimary.March2012.pdf

19. If the primary election was held today, would you vote for Mitt Romney or Ron Paul?
Romney 56% (189)
Paul 21% (71)
Undecided 23% (76)

20. If you could vote for any of the Republicans who are still running for the Presidential
nomination, would you vote for [ROTATE]
Mitt Romney 31% (110)
Ron Paul 12% (44)
Newt Gingrich 13% (45)
Rick Santorum 27% (97)
Uncertain 17% (62)

Yes, as with anything, framing is important. You frame it as a vote for their preferred candidate rather than a vote for Paul. Surprisingly, many find this (as bizarre as it seems to supporters) a fair description.

With a high conversion rate, it will still come down to how undecideds break. A strong performance in WA and a sizeable GOTV operation are the only thing that will bring us close.

Note: Since ChiChi seems unwilling to not put words in my mouth, I am NOT claiming we will or necessarily can win Virginia. Simply that there is a simple set of strategies we can go forward with that will help to improve our results.

 

[LibertyIn08]

"You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to parocks again."

 

[RDM]

Freedom must not be a very important issue in Virginia...

Actually, not important in 49 other states.

 

[Joey Wahoo]

As I've said in other posts, the failure to make any decent effort in Virginia just baffles me. Supposedly the strategy was to get it down to a mano a mano race between Ron Paul and Mitt Romney. In Virginia we've been handed that on a platter and we seem to ignore it.

I voted absentee in Virginia a couple of days ago and I can confirm that the ballot is very simple: choose Ron Paul or Mitt Romney.

 

[Zarn Solen]

The poll was less than 400 people. Usually that does not hold a lot of water. Still, that is a large margin to overcome.

 

[cjm]

If we have each Ron Paul supporter in VA standing outside each polling place handing out flyers making CLEAR differentiation between RP and Romney, WE COULD WIN.

WHO LIVES IN VA? THIS SHOULD BE TOP PRIORITY.

NO AMOUNT OF DOOR KNOCKING WILL WIN VA, YOU GOTTA STAND WHERE THE VOTERS WILL COME. THIS IS A LAST DITCH EFFORT.

Forgive the shameless thread plug, but I thought of putting out signs for those that refuse to look at the flyers on election day. I'll be there with the flyers too, but the signs are a force multiplier since I can only be at one polling place at a time and our grassroots doesn't have the manpower to be at all polling stations all day. If anyone has any content suggestions please share. I like the "If you support X, vote Paul to stop Romney" idea, I'll have to work those in.

Is that legal in VA? In many states politicking within a specified distance of the polling place entrance is illegal.

You have to remain 40' from the entrance to the polling place. For anyone wanting to do this, the complete set of rules is here: Election Day Dos and Don'ts. If you want to put up signs as I proposed in the other thread, that will depend on the polling location. Most public polling places (schools, firehouses, etc) allow signs. Polling places on private property will defer to the property owner's rules on sign placement.

 

[gerryb]

As I've said in other posts, the failure to make any decent effort in Virginia just baffles me. Supposedly the strategy was to get it down to a mano a mano race between Ron Paul and Mitt Romney. In Virginia we've been handed that on a platter and we seem to ignore it.

I voted absentee in Virginia a couple of days ago and I can confirm that the ballot is very simple: choose Ron Paul or Mitt Romney.

Are you becoming a delegate? That's what counts. rpv.org click top right "calls" button.

 

[jmdrake]

That poll is missing 23% of voters...so a lot of swing voters still available.

Ultimately this just reflects what a lot of have been seeing in the cross-tabs for a while...Ron isn't polling strong enough 2nd/3rd numbers to go one-on-one with any of the other candidates. (yet!)

Why is this? If you ask the republicans...it's simple...it's 'national defense'. Paul's position is great, but he hasn't been hammering away at it with his TV ads which IMO he needs to do:

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?364184-Time-to-insert-foreign-policy-into-TV-ads

Good idea. But that's not going to be enough. He needs to do infomercials and he needs to reach out more to democrats. I posted this in my response to your thread.

 

[PolicyReader]

Forgive the shameless thread plug, but I thought of putting out signs for those that refuse to look at the flyers on election day. I'll be there with the flyers too, but the signs are a force multiplier since I can only be at one polling place at a time and our grassroots doesn't have the manpower to be at all polling stations all day. If anyone has any content suggestions please share. I like the "If you support X, vote Paul to stop Romney" idea, I'll have to work those in.




You have to remain 40' from the entrance to the polling place. For anyone wanting to do this, the complete set of rules is here: Election Day Dos and Don'ts. If you want to put up signs as I proposed in the other thread, that will depend on the polling location. Most public polling places (schools, firehouses, etc) allow signs. Polling places on private property will defer to the property owner's rules on sign placement.

Thanks for getting organized and doing this. (quoted for increased visibility )

 

[RonPaul101.com]

As I've said in other posts, the failure to make any decent effort in Virginia just baffles me. Supposedly the strategy was to get it down to a mano a mano race between Ron Paul and Mitt Romney. In Virginia we've been handed that on a platter and we seem to ignore it.

I voted absentee in Virginia a couple of days ago and I can confirm that the ballot is very simple: choose Ron Paul or Mitt Romney.

Excellent point. If ALL of our efforts even since Iowa have been to get down to Romney and Paul as the anti-Romney, then why not try to prove that your argument that such a strategy has any validity by using the only contest where that 1v1 is the case?

Ignoring Virginia is a bad strategy, a wrong strategy. Now before I get replies of "the campaign knows more than, me, a RP supporter, and you just need ot accept that...". NO, the campaign is wrong and has made mistakes in the past, and this is shaping up to be another one of them. Even if you don't win VA, you NEED to come as close as possible in that effort to give validity to your own campaign.

We RP supporters are intelligent folks by and large, yet I imagine the average voter in VA (or the average voter anywhere for that matter) isn't very strategic. How many times have you heard someone say, "I'll vote for anyone over Obama." Well that's the problem, that mentality ruins this country just as it did when thinking, "Anyone could be better than Bush..." back in 2008.

Sadly, as we saw in Washington County Maine, where the contest came down Paul and Romney and the whole world knew it, Santorum still got a lot of votes there, and Newt got a few. Perhaps Gingrich supporters are a little more strategic, whereas Santorum supporters are just bat-shit crazy.

WHY would anyone want to give a bigger lead to the guy kicking their own preferred candidate's ass?

 

[RonPaul101.com]

Should we consider negative grassroots campaigning? In VA it's easy because it's all anti-Romney (1v1). If we can make Romney hated we can take away some support.

 

[gerryb]

Should we consider negative grassroots campaigning? In VA it's easy because it's all anti-Romney (1v1). If we can make Romney hated we can take away some support.

We are handing out 100,000 comparison sheets in the northern part of VA...

 

[Blue]

Was hoping we'd get the Santa/Grinch vote just so Romney would lose. I guess people really don't care that much.

 

[rb3b3]

This is the major problem i see with the campaign. sooo many people in america, really dont have a clue when it comes to politics... i am also included in this... the only reason why i am voting for ron paul is because i am constantly on the internet and have researched all the candidates on my own....i think we really have to simplify ron pauls policies for everyone. for instance ron takes a stab at santorum because he voted to increase the size of the department of education.... now to me that can be taken as rick santorum believes in our childrens education and believes education is a very important part of our childrens future. So an actual knock on santorum could be interpreted as a positive for his supporters. the only time in recent memory when there was an uproar amongst my peers was in regards to the sopa bill and my peers felt as though the government was trying to take away their internet... every single post on my facebook from my friends had to do with stopping sopa. so with that being said, cant we come up with ways to tell the avg person in america who has no clue about politics like me how it would effect their lives if they voted for ron paul? and conversly tell them how it would effect their lives if they voted for anyone else? i really think we need to stoop down to the average americans level and simplify policies and what they mean and how it effects them personally. nothing drives me more crazy then hearing a person voting for someone who will make their life tougher if the person they are voting for was to be elected..... i hope im making sense in this post... but the bottom line is people NEED to know how they will be effected if ron paul wins or santorum wins or romney or newt wins.