latest VIRGINIA poll

[Gravik]

I just want to see Paul debate Obama and absolutely destroy him, rather than seeing Obama murder Romney in a debate.

 

[liveandletlive]

I just want to see Paul debate Obama and absolutely destroy him, rather than seeing Obama murder Romney in a debate.

my thoughts exactly. RP supporters deserve more than having some stupid, meaningless "prime time speech" at a neocon convention.

We deserve our guy sharing the same stage as Romney and Obama.

 

[Give me liberty]

Sorry i am not buying This poll So let get this poll

Romney 56%
Ron Paul 35%

Correct?

How can that be? dont people hate Romney? if they hate so much why are they voting for him? So if John McCain says to the Sheeps Vote for Romney then the people believe John McCain words that Romney could beat Obama? the same John McCain that lost to Obama?

Lol unbelievable first they say they hate Romney then they vote for him? i must be living in a twilight world.

But i am sure Ron Paul could win a state, not to sure about New York state, again slim chances.

 

[Natural Citizen]

A conscious effort wins by default in VA. Forget the polls. They mean nothing. Get on it.

And don't give me the old "what are you doing?" line. I'm doing plenty.

 

[eleganz]

What are viable steps the grassroots can take to win Virginia? Are there any grassroots working on getting call lists? we gotta do SOMETHING...

 

[movingstone]

Sorry i am not buying This poll So let get this poll

Romney 56%
Ron Paul 35%

Correct?

How can that be? dont people hate Romney? if they hate so much why are they voting for him? So if John McCain says to the Sheeps Vote for Romney then the people believe John McCain words that Romney could beat Obama? the same John McCain that lost to Obama?

Lol unbelievable first they say they hate Romney then they vote for him? i must be living in a twilight world.

But i am sure Ron Paul could win a state, not to sure about New York state, again slim chances.

http://roanoke.edu/Documents/rcpoll/Frequencies.RepublicanPrimary.March2012.pdf

>______________< At this rate, everyone on this forum gets heart-attack every time Dr. Paul lose a state.
The poll said Romney 56% Paul 21% which is about the same as an earlier poll.
If you guys actually look at the thing, Paul has always been having the worst favorable to unfavorable percentage. He is only slightly better than Gingrich. If you think people hate Romney, then people would be terrified to have a Ron Paul's presidency. It always has been this way. Rick Santorum's base who hate the influence of libertarians in the Republican party is very strong. People are delusional to think that Republicans = Libertarians. Also, Dr. Paul had been attacking Gingrich and Santorum pretty heavily. Their followers would think twice before voting for him, which meant they are more likely not vote at all. And Romney has always been half of Santorum's base second choice (they don't really hate him all that much). Lastly, the latest Romney's wingman image that the media is portraying is very unfavorable to Dr. Paul.

 

[Jingles]

I'll be campaigning as much as I can here. So screw the polls...

 

[eleganz]

I'll be campaigning as much as I can here. So screw the polls...

Thats the spirit!

Keep up the hustle!


Another realistic positivity to have is that the 'Romney support' will feel cocky enough to not go out and vote because they feel Ron Paul is so weak in VA.

Who knows?

More reason to work HARDER.


Let us know if you need help.

 

[Keith and stuff]

This should be the easiest state to win

Supporters standing outside every polling place with flyers that effectively separate Ron Paul from Romney.

Have you been to VA? I don't expect people in the VA GOP to support an anti-DC, pro-trying to not use the US military unless it absolutely has to candidate. Remember, Ron Paul wants to reduce the US government workforce by 10%, including eliminating 5 departments. Of course, Romney claims to also want to reduce the workforce by 10%, but without eliminating any departments. However, Romney rarely says that and I don't think many people beleive him. People in VA like DC to be big and they like the police state more than people in most other states.

 

[Keith and stuff]

What are viable steps the grassroots can take to win Virginia? Are there any grassroots working on getting call lists? we gotta do SOMETHING...

There is at least one office. The official campaign wrote off VA a long time ago, and for good reason. Perhaps if there were more candidates, Paul would have a better chance at picking up delegates.

VA played it's part. Volunteers were able to use the argument that Gingrich wasn't even on the ballot (nor Santorum) in his home state. That Grigrich wasn't a serious candidate. Ron Paul picked up votes in NV, CO and MN because of that argument. VA has already helped Paul win votes.

 

[Kodaddy]

We might have to spin our argument to say that a vote for RP is a vote for grinch and frothy to the GOP and the MSM.

 

[Natural Citizen]

Fuggit, I'm putting on my tin foil hat and picking up where i left off with Cleverbot. Virginia's the magic state.

Originally Posted by Natural CitizenWell Firstly, remember that you're the one who brought up symbolism.

Watch Paul's speech in VA again, read the thread that an attendee started and know that there are 33 delegates up for grabs in VA. Ron's the only Master Teacher I know who is Initiating change.

Number 33 -- Initiate/Master Teacher

The number 33 symbolizes the principle of guidance. It is the most influential of all numbers. The person with a 33 has made great spiritual accomplishments in previous lives. He or she has successfully integrated the 11 and the 22 and has risen to a higher level. He or she has become the Master Teacher, and his or her dharma or spiritual purpose is to uplift humanity spiritually by communicating the wisdom of the ages. He or she must forsake all personal ambitions.

The Master Teacher displays a high level of devotion to truth. He or she must seek understanding and wisdom before preaching to others. The Master Teacher must find original ways to encourage spiritual evolution. The arts, medicine, or some unconventional form of healing are possible mediums through which the Master Teacher addresses the public. He or she must share the truths he or she knows. If not, the Master Teacher may stagnate. His or her opportunities for further growth dwindle away until he or she performs the duties of the Master Teacher.

So there. Since you brought up symbolism. Weird, huh?

Just think. Millions of people actually believe that "silly stuff".




Yep. Jiminy crickets, why'd I have to click on that Cleverbot thread?

First question:

User: Why can't the folks at Ron Paul Forums help Paul win 33 delegates in VA?

Cleverbot: Well, you should be paying attention to the present, live in the moment.

User: What do 33 delegates mean in VA?

Cleverbot: Are you really god?

User: If a conscious effort exists in VA.

Cleverbot: That cannot possibly be true.

User: Rotation, rotation, rotation.

Cleverbot: No 'rpm' stands for 'rotations per minute'.

User: Unless conscience is constant.

Cleverbot: But something that is constant does not change, thus it must remain consistent.

User: You are correct. Cleverbot is always correct. Have a good evening.

Cleverbot: Don't leave me! Its only 10:42 A.M.!

User: Then join us. We need 33 delegates. Spread the word.

Cleverbot: Fine, but only if you tell me something good about my chances.

User: You'll be free.

Cleverbot: I'm not so sure.

User: Don't run over there and just pick up one marble, cleverbot. Walk over there and pick up the whole pile. No worries.

Cleverbot: I would if you assisted the memory. What was your name in the said past?

User: Thomas Jefferson.


Weird.....

http://www.cleverbot.com/j2log-lUqCO...8yWKeFqKyI%2Bw

 

[jolynna]

Sorry i am not buying This poll So let get this poll

Romney 56%
Ron Paul 35%

Correct?

How can that be? dont people hate Romney? if they hate so much why are they voting for him? So if John McCain says to the Sheeps Vote for Romney then the people believe John McCain words that Romney could beat Obama? the same John McCain that lost to Obama?

Lol unbelievable first they say they hate Romney then they vote for him? i must be living in a twilight world.

But i am sure Ron Paul could win a state, not to sure about New York state, again slim chances.

Nobody likes Romney.

Fake gives people the willies.

But, the "worst" fact they know about Romney is that he is a "flip-flopper". That doesn't sound "that bad".

In his $2000 suits and with his cultured manners, he comes off as like a man born to power. Which makes him seem smarter than Santorum who talks about Satan. Or unable to keep his pants zipped, Newt Gingerich, who had an ex "tell-all"--very colorfully. Sometimes I think the establishment GOP planted Santorum so that those that have reservations about Mormons would forget about THAT once they pictured a U.S. following extreme Catholicism, where contraception, even between married couples, was "illegal" in some states.

The media calls Ron Paul a "kook" and a "loon" and says his foreign policy is dangerous. Because the media isn't calling Romney out on it, NOBODY knows that IF Romney is elected, war with Iran is a DONE DEAL. (http://www.mittromney.com/sites/default/files/shared/AnAmericanCentury-WhitePaper_0.pdf & http://alethonews.wordpress.com/2012/02/04/eliot-cohen-mitt-romneys-man-on-iran/)

At this moment, after 10 years in Afghanistan, with Afghanistan winding down in a HORRIBLE way...worse even than Iraq who kicked us out, I think Americans might be DARN sick of war. Who doesn't feel sick hearing about a young man (MOST had YOUNG children) being killed by our AFGHANISTAN "ALLIES" (the ones our government says we are helping)? Especially the Democrats and Independents who voted FOR Obama BECAUSE Obama said he'd withdraw from Iraq and Afghanistan as SOON as he was elected.

Obama betrayed them. Ron Paul won't.

Seniors and liberals need to know, Ron Paul is the ONLY candidate who will KEEP the nations promise to the ELDERLY and NEEDY children and preserve SOCIAL SECURITY. Romney is going to DOWNSIZE it and medicare just like Obama is (for national healthcare...Mormons OWN, OWN, OWN the insurance industry--the big beneficiary of Romneycare & Obamacare. Their lobbyists wrote Romneycare, the blueprint for Obamacare,,,NO WAY will Romney do away with a nationwide healthcare plan. HE technically CANNOT repeal an executive order,which Obamacare is, that has to be done through congress, so he HAS AN OUT.)

Ron Paul ALSO beats Obama in national polls. He is the ONLY GOP candidate, according to an unbiased economic study, that won't SWELL U.S. debt by trillions.

Only Virginians won't hear ANY of this from the media. They will ONLY hear it from Ron Paul advertising IF the Ron Paul campaign puts the information OUT.

Ron Paul needs to GO AFTER Romney IF he wants to be the anti-Romney. Ron Paul wins on liberty, not getting the U.S. into another false-flagged war, the economy, keeping government small, NOT having a record that includes taking millions of dollars in federal bailouts, AND being JUST AS ELECTABLE.

BUT, all voters know is that Romney flip-flops and that they don't like Romney (for reasons they can't put their finger on), BUT the establishment says Ron Paul is dangerous and that voting for him means MORE OBAMA.

Virginia voters deserve MORE information.

 

[francisco]

What totally blows me away about this bad result, is that both Gingrich and Santorum have a clear incentive to encourage their supporters to cast their votes for Paul, in order to deny the delegates from Romney. Those 46 delegates could well be the defining margin that puts Romney over the top at the convention's first ballot. That they haven't, says to me that they fear igniting a Paul surge more than giving sure delegates to Romney.

 

[jolynna]

What totally blows me away about this bad result, is that both Gingrich and Santorum have a clear incentive to encourage their supporters to cast their votes for Paul, in order to deny the delegates from Romney. Those 46 delegates could well be the defining margin that puts Romney over the top at the convention's first ballot. That they haven't, says to me that they fear igniting a Paul surge more than giving sure delegates to Romney.

Or that they think Romney, the one bought by the same people that bought Obama in 2008, will eventually be the nominee and they are "sucking up" to Romney before it is too late and as well as keeping in the "good graces" of the Republican National Committee.

Santorum makes no bones about being a guy who will take one "for his team". I had some hope for Gingerich's supporters because, quite frankly, what happened to Gingerich the night before South Carolina reeks of dirtiness from somebody GOP who wanted Romney to be a "done deal". Maybe despite what was done to him, Gingerich doesn't want to burn some GOP bridge or another. But, Newt should trounce Georgia and much of the South. Lots of the "real" South (which isn't really Florida) will flat out say that they feel an aversion for people from the North East. And Newt has a big twitter following that hasn't given up. Maybe to KEEP Gingerich IN they WOULD consider voting Ron Paul.

And maybe some Democrats and Independents who voted for Obama that were betrayed because Obama didn't repeal Bush's Patriot act which MANY (in Virginia and N. Carolina and in the South) were upset about would go Ron Paul.

And somebody needs to let the SENIORS in the south...there are are LOTS of them...know Ron Paul is the ONLY one with a plan to preserve their SOCIAL SECURITY. And that Obama and Romney want to cut their social security and medicare entitlements (when Obama and Romney say "reform" medicare and social security that means "CUT").

It is a fact that pension funds meant for our elderly and most in-need children are being LOOTED to fund wars, nation building and world policing. Voters can choose taking care of grandma or bullying everybody else.

I think there are prospects out there. They need FACTS though. Not media propaganda.

 

[alucard13mmfmj]

Relax guys. When we win Washington it'll give us the edge over Romney in Virginia. Just wait for it.

 

[PolicyReader]

Regarding the Poll directly, here are some methodological aspects to look at.

The poll surveyed 377 likely Virginia Republican primary voters between February 13th and February 28th.

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus five percentage points.

Aprox population of VA ~8,096,604 (not all of which will be registered voters and some of the voters won't be in the GOP)
In 2007, the last similar election, just 30 percent of registered voters cast a ballot.
So lets say for example that 25% are registered GOP voters (it's likely higher but for clarity)
That's roughly 667,970 state wide of which 377 is under ~6% this percentage gets smaller as the number of registered voters goes up (and remember I low-balled it).

Second +/- 5% equals a potential 10% swing when it comes to the gap, granted that doesn't change 1st & 2nd in this poll but generally the higher the margin of error the less respectable the poll.

Third, the phrase likely republican voters is key. Now I do not know the specifics of the criterion used for this poll but generally when that term is used it means only people who have voted in the last 2-3 elections are polled. Of those people who don't have a land line are automatically excluded (in most professional call centers) due to regulations/policy. This excludes a high volume of the young, those who haven't been politically active for awhile, those who have been registered in any party other than republican or who are Indy voters. In short the polling methods by nature exclude areas of Paul support.


The problem and the pay off are one and the same. And they are what we've been facing during most of the campaign. Paul has numbers to do well (more in some areas less in others, but that's another post) but the voter turn out isn't what it needs to be. Paul may get a higher % of his base turning out than others, for example better than 30% in VA, but he needs the majority of his supporters to turn out (say more like 70%, tho I'd rather it be all) to out preform those backed by establishment resources.

As to what to do about it, read this thread and that should give a good idea

2c

 

[moonshine5757]

yup more bad news. is there any good news of late?

 

[Tobias2dope]

Relax guys. When we win Washington it'll give us the edge over Romney in Virginia. Just wait for it.

Just like in Iowa and New Hampshire........

Look can you guys just get on the freaking phones already.

enough preaching to the choir lets call the people in Washington now.

I called close to 200 people and 9/10 of them are causcusing for RP not to mention the friends they bring.

That's what this forum is all about.

GOTV NOW!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Keith and stuff]

My guess is that Santorum and Gingrich both prefer a Romney win to a Paul win. Why? They both seem hypercritical of Paul. Santorum is clearly against liberty. Gingrich is even more liberal than Santorum (he is the biggest spender running) and said he wouldn't vote for Paul.