Latest polling: NBC Trump 47 Biden 42 - CNN Trump 49 Biden 45

[Anti Federalist]

https://twitter.com/EndWokeness/status/1754155258626933155

Link to poll data

Link to CNN poll data

 

[acptulsa]

NBC's staging a good horse race. So, what I want to know is, do they fake another steal and march Trump in ahead of a fedboi "insurrection"? If so, there goes the Constitution.

 

[Anti Federalist]

NBC's staging a good horse race. So, what I want to know is, do they fake another steal and march Trump in ahead of a fedboi "insurrection"? If so, there goes the Constitution.

We shall see.

 

[Snowball]

I looked them over. Page 10 on NBC says a lot.
It reveals that Americans really don't like any of these candidates much.

No candidates, nor SCOTUS enjoy an overall (Very and Somewhat) Positive Differential.
Kennedy and West come the closest, but that could be because they remain largely unfamiliar.

Differentials: Kennedy (-1), West (-3), SCOTUS (-12), Trump (-14), Manchin (-14), Haley (-15), Biden (-18), Harris (-25)
% "Don't Know" + "Neutral": West (77), Manchin (64), Kennedy (45), SCOTUS (32), Haley (39), Harris (19), Biden (10), Trump (10)

What we could do here is expand the "Neutral + Don't Know" numbers by the differential.

If that happens, Kennedy is the most favorable by a wide margin.
West comes next, then Manchin. (this could be important), although West's unfamiliarity is prohibitive.

Harris is hurting Biden. That is definite. Voters are 81% decided on her, and she has the worst negative differential.

Over to the CNN poll for the same items:

Differentials: Haley (-7), Trump (-16), Harris (-23), Biden (-25)
% "Don't Know" + "Neutral/No Opinion": Haley (42), Harris (19), Biden (7), Trump (6)

CNN Poll does not include Kennedy, Manchin, or West as candidates, but does have opinions on Kennedy.

Let's look at opinions on Kennedy. This is done by the question about how would you feel if he became President?
"Enthusiastic" + "Satisfied, but not Enthusiastic" (33), , "Upset" (18), "Dissatisfied, but not Upset" (15) "Don't Know" (34).

Compare this with Biden and Trump's numbers for "Upset" (both 43), and "Dissatisfied, but not Upset" (Biden 20, Trump 11)
it's not hard to see why Kennedy is still a factor. It's also true that more Americans would be Mad if Biden won than Trump.

We may infer a Differential for Kennedy with these numbers and see if it is close to the (-1) from NBC.
Lo and Behold, it is VERY CLOSE. [33-(18+15)] = (0). Flat. Moreover, it is essential to notice that 45.4% of Kennedy's flat differential
are perhaps still open to the idea, because they might be "dissatisfied", but they WON'T be "Upset" if he wins.

Kennedy is seen as "too extreme" for 33% of Whites, but only "too extreme" for 25% of Blacks. Virtually identical Men or Women.

There is still potential for Kennedy here. If Kennedy is to grow, he has to whittle down on this "too extreme" problem, especially among Whites. Perhaps his Israel stance had something to do with this. If he did not condemn Hamas, and express support for Israel, I would expect his "too extreme" ranks among Whites to be even higher than 33, perhaps the upper 40's (a guess). Biden's biggest problem among Independents and Democrats is something he can't do anything about (age), at 46/49%. 53% of Democrats say they need a different candidate.

 

[acptulsa]

There is still potential for Kennedy here.

Is there? They aren't even giving anyone a choice in the primaries. Choose from the two worst presidents in history, two proven losers. Here's a way to avoid that fate, and a genuine Kennedy. But he's not wearing an R or a D.

They have the public so indoctrinated to oppose the most evil evil at any cost that they develop genuine enthusiasm for the slightly lesser evil. It's insane.

Ever see a cartoon character try to outrun the oncoming train when all they have to do is step off the track? The American public is as stupid as Wile E. Coyote.

 

[RJB]

They have the public so indoctrinated to oppose the most evil evil at any cost that they develop genuine enthusiasm for the slightly lesser evil. It's insane.

Ever see a cartoon character try to outrun the oncoming train when all they have to do is step off the track? The American public is as stupid as Wile E. Coyote.

This is the thing. I basicallyy agree with you to an extent. We had that discussion in another thread about my Trump supporting neighbors. At least where I live, the Trump supporters really do think Trump will cut government, end wars, and all the other stuff that we support. The worst thing I have to call them is horriblly naive.

In reality, Trump and RFK are more like 1980s democrats. Which, despite how much I complained back then, the 1980s were much better than today. I won't fault anyone for voting for Trump or RFK.

 

[Anti Federalist]

Is there? They aren't even giving anyone a choice in the primaries. Choose from the two worst presidents in history, two proven losers. Here's a way to avoid that fate, and a genuine Kennedy. But he's not wearing an R or a D.

They have the public so indoctrinated to oppose the most evil evil at any cost that they develop genuine enthusiasm for the slightly lesser evil. It's insane.

Ever see a cartoon character try to outrun the oncoming train when all they have to do is step off the track? The American public is as stupid as Wile E. Coyote.

I thought he had decided to run third party?

 

[Anti Globalist]

Once again who cares? We all know Trump is never going to be president again no matter how hard people whine.

 

[acptulsa]

I thought he had decided to run third party?

We're there, dude. Been laughing at that shit for thirty years, and here we are with two proven lizards and no camo possible. And what are people doing?

 

[69360]

Yeah, this poll also says that Trump loses to Biden if/when Trump is convicted.

 

[Snowball]

Once again who cares? We all know Trump is never going to be president again no matter how hard people whine.

I don't believe that.

Trump is far from automatic. Especially if Michelle gets in the race, or Kennedy gets on all the ballots.

 

[RJB]

Once again who cares? We all know Trump is never going to be president again no matter how hard people whine.

Snowball does ask a good question. No body "knows.". In fact some Trump supporters claim to "know" that he will be elected. This is the 50th or so time you made this claim. Do you have inside knowledge?

 

[nobody's_hero]

Snowball does ask a good question. No body "knows.". In fact some Trump supporters claim to "know" that he will be elected. This is the 50th or so time you made this claim. Do you have inside knowledge?

I've read on these forums that the deep state super-secretly wants Trump to win.

If he doesn't win, a lot of people are going to have to revise their theories (which happens all the time here anyway).

 

[PAF]

I've read on these forums that the deep state super-secretly wants Trump to win.

If he doesn't win, a lot of people are going to have to revise their theories.

The deep state made sure that the people gave their consent. The deep state "hated" Trump ----> right across the finish line.

 

[nobody's_hero]

The deep state made sure that the people gave their consent. The deep state "hated" Trump ----> right across the finish line.

But, he's going to lose. "everyone knows it."

Once again who cares? We all know Trump is never going to be president again no matter how hard people whine.

Yeah, this poll also says that Trump loses to Biden if/when Trump is convicted.

 

[PAF]

But, he's going to lose. "everyone knows it."

It's one of those things where I look at things at a different angle. Whether he "wins" or "loses" the actual presidency doesn't matter; it's more like the people focus on Trump and elections, rather than to focus on what actually yields the most freedom/liberty/fiscal responsibility. With the exception of a few, people don't change. Nor will this country for the better.

It's also interesting concerning Javier Milei; folks seem to have heard of him and cheer what he's doing in Argentina, but the idea of an AnCap doing that here seems to be a repulsive idea - people in general can't stand AnCaps. Well, in my experience anyway in talking with people.

 

[nobody's_hero]

It's one of those things where I look at things at a different angle. Whether he "wins" or "loses" the actual presidency doesn't matter; it's more like the people focus on Trump and elections, rather than to focus on what actually yields the most freedom/liberty/fiscal responsibility. With the exception of a few, people don't change. Nor will this country for the better.

It's also interesting concerning Javier Milei; folks seem to have heard of him and cheer what he's doing in Argentina, but the idea of an AnCap doing that here seems to be a repulsive idea - people in general can't stand AnCaps. Well, in my experience anyway in talking with people.

I'd vote for Milei. He's not on the ballot though.

Also, I'd like to point out that Milei has been authoritarian in his decision-making when it comes to his slashing the government. Lots of executive edicts to accomplish what he has done thus far, and I'm thinking he's just getting started.

Now, don't get me wrong, I don't really care, as I realize that the means justify the ends. But I'm not sure how it would go over with moral and procedural absolutists here in the U.S. My guess is that he would be ripped apart by internet pontificators (i.e. the an-cap crowd).

 

[RJB]

I've read on these forums that the deep state super-secretly wants Trump to win.

If he doesn't win, a lot of people are going to have to revise their theories (which happens all the time here anyway).

I gave up predicting when McCain got the nomination in 2008. I helped with some satirical forums, and McCain's was the last one we bothered with because he was given no chance. 2012 was a huge wtf with Romney. I'm just along for the ride, but I am always curious whenever someone claims to "know" whether It's q heads or anyone else.

 

[nobody's_hero]

I gave up predicting when McCain got the nomination in 2008. I helped with some satirical forums, and McCain's was the last one we bothered with because he was given no chance. 2012 was a huge wtf with Romney. I'm just along for the ride, but I am always curious whenever someone claims to "know" whether It's q heads or anyone else.

For the record: My prediction is that Trump will probably "lose". Too many (swing) states have made minimal (if any) changes to the process since 2020, so it's just going to repeat itself. Rural areas will report their precinct results early, and the corrupt blue municipalities will hold back, and make edits in the dead of night if necessary, after they see how much they're trailing. The only question is how much they'll have to cheat this time, and whether that shakes people's confidence in the system (even moreso than 2020).

I'm not thrilled that the polls are showing Trump leading, because I see it as the media's attempt to save their credibility by acknowledging Trump's lead well in advance of the elections. I'd rather they were completely wrong, as in 2016.



Not for Trump's sake.

I just think the media needs to be humbled again. No one we really care about is going to be heard until they stop talking.

 

[Anti Federalist]

We're there, dude. Been laughing at that shit for thirty years, and here we are with two proven lizards and no camo possible. And what are people doing?

See ya on the death ray work squad, comrade.