Kosovo a catalyst for war

[Naraku]

I'm not sure if any of you are tracking this story, but Kosovo is on the verge of declaring independence:

http://www.voanews.com/english/2008-01-28-voa32.cfm

http://www.eubusiness.com/news-eu/1201522629.66

http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/...-ban-says-kosovo-a-european-union-affair.html

The danger is not only Serbia's reaction, but Russia's. It's been suggested Russia would decide to recognize South Ossetia and Abkhazia in Georgia, a decision Georgia says would result in war. What's more Armenia has suggested Kosovo would serve as a precedent for Nagorno-Karabakh in Azerbaijan, which could result in war yet again.

In particular interest on that subject is the following:

A July, 2006 "Operational Requirements Document," obtained by DANGER ROOM, outlines out a series of simulations and training exercises that helped form the technical and operational foundation for Future Combat Systems. These trials were all based on Azerbaijan's "Caspian Sea scenario." Most involve the taking of the capital city, Baku.

Earlier war games were set in other locations -- places where American troops might some day seem to be more likely to fight. Those included a "North Korean Architecture Analysis," to see if a new kind of munitions launch system was feasible. Another, set "in the 2010(+) time frame," evaluated "battle command" systems in "the complex terrain of the Balkans."

But what makes the Azerbaijan model different is that almost every component of the massive Future Combat Systems effort -- from the "Infantry Carrier Vehicles" to the packbackable robots to the flying drones to the next-generation mortars to the commander's rolling headquarters -- had their "mission profiles... based on three Major Combat Operations (MCOs: 1, 2, 3) conducted within the Caspian Sea scenario."

Azerbaijan was picked as the FCS model because "the nation now faces a new reality embodied in the Caspian Sea scenario," Army consultant Clyde T. Wilson in an Armor magazine article.

The Caspian Sea scenario is not about fighting in the Caspian Sea area, but is all about the next most dangerous situation U.S. forces are likely to face. In many ways, it follows the 1950-53 Korean War scenario. Country A (South Korea) is attacked by Country B (North Korea). The U.S. comes to the assistance of Country A. The thrust of the scenario is how does the U.S. enter the battle area and build-up sufficient forces to achieve its national goals. The scenario is further complicated by Country C (China), which threatens to enter the conflict, especially during the buildup phase when the U.S. is most vulnerable.

The Korean scenario provides national decisionmakers with significant geopolitical issues. The situation becomes more complicated when adding an asymmetric threat like we saw during Vietnam. The Caspian Sea scenario is about getting credible force into the area of operations and deterring aggression by Country C. In the scenario, the arrival of U.S. heavy forces represents endgame. At this point, we dominate the battlefield. After heavy forces arrive in the area, they must be prepared to conduct combat operations against the heavy threat presented by Country C while providing self-protection against an asymmetric threat that specifically targets U.S. vulnerabilities.​

Wilson doesn't specify which nation "County C" represents in this scenario. But, according to the Washington Post's William Arkin, "the United States and Britain have been conducting war games and contingency planning under a Caspian Sea scenario that could also pave the way for northern operations against Iran.

Source: Wired

This is definitely one of the most disturbing things I've read in the past year. While the author suggests this refers to Iran, I think that is completely inappropriate. For one there are pictures:

These pictures of the scenarios played out do not suggest a threat from Iran or an operation against Iran. The first image shows a thrust south, but not towards the Iranian border, but towards the border of Nagorno-Karabakh. The other two show this is most likely not related to Iran because it shows a northern thrust, from the Azeri side of the Iranian border. This suggests the scenario does not entail a thrust towards Iran, but may instead involve preventing a Russian invasion.

The mention of an asymmetric threat seems to refer to some form of terrorist attacks, which may refer either to Armenian terrorists in Nagorno-Karabakh or the PKK. Recently the PKK has threatened to launch attacks on Azerbaijan if Turkey invades Northern Iraq and Azerbaijan has talked about striking PKK bases in Nagorno-Karabakh.

Azerbaijan may use Kurdish attacks to justify attacking Nagorno-Karabakh, prompting a response by Armenians in Azeri territories, which would lead to a war and as Armenia is a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization with Russia, it may lead to Russian threats of invasion and movement of American troops into Azerbaijan to prevent an invasion.

This war game may be based around the possibility of this event actually occurring.

It's quite frightening and the broader implications are even more frightening.

 

[New Governor Of Alaska]

Kosovo will be Europe's Palastine.

 

[SerbsForPaul]

It's not funny to be taking Kosovo as a joke. Most people don't have a clue as to why the United States and most European Union states want a independent Kosovo that has been taken over by criminal Albanian organizations, that are financed and supported by just about every Islamic terrorist group the United States is suppose to be fighting against today.

Ron Paul understand this.
"Too often we give foreign aid and intervene on behalf of governments that are despised. Then, we become despised. Too often we have supported those who turn on us, like the Kosovars who aid Islamic terrorists, or the Afghan jihadists themselves, and their friend Osama bin Laden. We armed and trained them, and now we’re paying the price. "

Anyways there is much more on this topic I could go into, but it's worthless when most people care so little to hear about others problems.

 

[New Governor Of Alaska]

Zivela Srbija!

It's not funny to be taking Kosovo as a joke. Most people don't have a clue as to why the United States and most European Union states want a independent Kosovo that has been taken over by criminal Albanian organizations, that are financed and supported by just about every Islamic terrorist group the United States is suppose to be fighting against today.

America always supported criminals for as long as they are against Russia...

U.S. stance on Kosovo is against intl. law
13/ 12/ 2007

- Washington's insistence on granting Kosovo independence is at odds with international law and could provoke separatist tendencies throughout the world, a Russian senator said on Thursday.

Mikhail Margelov, chairman of the Federation Council's international affairs committee, told RIA Novosti: "Washington has repeatedly highlighted the unique nature of the Kosovo case, but no one has bothered to explain exactly what that means. What sets Kosovo apart from Northern Cyprus, South Ossetia, Abkhazia, Northern Ireland, and many other ethnic and religious enclaves scattered throughout the world?"

"Evidently, American diplomacy forgets that with Washington's support and connivance, Pristina is blocking all initiatives by the international community," Margelov said.
However, Russia has warned of a chain reaction if the province breaks away from Serbia, causing other separatist regions, including those in the former Soviet Union, to follow suit.


http://en.rian.ru/russia/20071213/92335940.html

January 22, 2008
THE KREMLIN, MOSCOW.

President Putin with the 2007 winners of the Public International Foundation for the Unity of Orthodox Christian Nations. From left to right: Crown Prince of Serbia and Yugoslavia Alexander Karageorgevich II, Partriarch of Moscow and All-Russia Aleksei II, Her Royal Highness Princess Katarina, wife of the Crown Prince of Serbia and Yugoslavia, Bishop Athanasius Kirinskii, First Deputy Prime Minister Dmitrii Medvedev and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
THE KREMLIN, MOSCOW.President Vladimir Putin met with Partriarch of Moscow and All-Russia Aleksei II and the winners of the Public International Foundation for the Unity of Orthodox Christian Nations.
First Deputy Prime Minister Dmitrii Medvedev also took part in the meeting.
Partriarch of Moscow and All-Russia Aleksei II presented bouquets of flowers with the portraits and biographies of the prize winners to the head of state and first Deputy Prime Minister.
The Public International Foundation for the Unity of Orthodox Christian Nations (IFUOCN) was established in 1995 and acts with priorities in revival and strengthening ties of spiritual brotherhood of nations confessing Orthodoxy, in activating their efforts in cultural and social cooperation.

http://kremlin.ru/eng/sdocs/news.shtml#158652

 

[New Governor Of Alaska]

Milosevic widow, son granted asylum in Russia in 2006-official

01/ 02/ 2008

MOSCOW, February 1 (RIA Novosti) - The widow and son of controversial Serbian leader Slobodan Milosevic were granted political asylum in Russia in March 2006, a Russian Federal Migration Service official said on Friday.

"Refugee status was granted to the ex-president's widow Mirjana Markovic and son Marko Milosevic in March 2006 in accordance with a UN convention," Konstantin Poltoranin said confirming earlier Serbian media reports.

Both of them are wanted in Serbia for heading a cigarette smuggling ring in the early 1990s, activities investigators said netted them several million dollars. The mother and son, who have lived in Moscow for the last several years, have denied the charges, but have refused to return to the country for the investigation.

Mirjana Markovic made no comment on Friday's report. "No comment, I am sorry," she told a Serbian reporter on the telephone.

Milosevic, who led Yugoslavia into war and international isolation, culminating in the NATO bombing of the country in 1999, died in custody in The Hague in March 2006, before a UN war crimes tribunal was to pass a verdict on his role in the wars in Croatia, Bosnia and Kosovo in the 1990s.

The family was not present at his funeral as Serbian authorities failed to provide them with sufficient security guarantees.

Markovic was also accused in 2002 of abuse of power for giving a state apartment to the nanny of her grandchild. Marko also faced charges of threatening to kill an opposition youth group member in 2001, which were later dropped.

read more - http://en.rian.ru/russia/20080201/98200599.html

 

[SerbsForPaul]

Governor are you originally from Serbia?

 

[Agora]

Governor are you originally from Serbia?

I like where Ron Paul stands on foreign policy.

 

[Bradley in DC]

Ludwig von Mises, Liberalism [our kind]:

The right of self-determination in regard to the question of membership in a state thus means: whenever the inhabitants of a particular territory, whether it be a single village, a whole district, or a series of adjacent districts, make it known, by a freely conducted plebiscite, that they no longer wish to remain united to the state to which they belong at the time, but wish either to form an independent state or to attach themselves to some other state, their wishes are to be respected and complied with. This is the only feasible and effective way of preventing revolutions and civil and international wars.​

And Mises on Chauvinism in the same book:

As long as nations cling to protective tariffs, migration barriers, compulsory education, interventionism and etatism, new conflicts capable of breaking out at any time into open warfare will continually arise to plague mankind.​

 

[partypooper]

As long as nations cling to protective tariffs, migration barriers, compulsory education, interventionism and etatism, new conflicts capable of breaking out at any time into open warfare will continually arise to plague mankind.​

probably true, but irrelevant in the context. if the US were a consistent advocate of the right for self-determination serbs would probably not complain much. the problem is that the US, while strongly supporting the right of albanians for their second state (we are told that this is a question of kosovo independence, but it is really a question of annexing a part of serbia to albania), is simultanesously strongly opposing the right of 1) serbs in kosovo to separate themselves from kosovo 2) serbs in bosnia to separate themselves from bosnia and was against the right of serbs in croatia to separate themselves in croatia - just to name a few recent balkan cases with many more examples of inconsistency around the world.

 

[New Governor Of Alaska]

Governor are you originally from Serbia?

SerbsForPaul, I've never been to Serbia. I was born and raised in the USSR.
Zivela Srbija! is well known "slogan" in Russia.

By the way, what does your media (I assume you are from Serbia) say about visit of Serbian President Boris Tadic and Serbian Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica to Kremlin on January 25?

I like where Ron Paul stands on foreign policy.

Hello, Agora. Can you be more specific?

 

[New Governor Of Alaska]

I have a question for all of you, guys...
Do you think Russia will make the same move as it did in 2000 in case of Kosovo independence?

June 17, 2001
PRISTINA, KOSOVO.
Putin during welcoming ceremony at the airport.


President Vladimir Putin presented government awards to Russian peacekeepers in Kosovo.
As Mr Putin arrived in Kosovo, a guard of honour of Russian peacekeepers met him at Pristina airport.

The President was then driven to the headquarters of a Russian peacekeeping contingent at the village of Vrelo. Mr Putin presented government awards to six servicemen who had distinguished themselves in the performance of their peacekeeping duties.

Mr Putin also met with top commanders of the Russian military contingent to discuss the military-political situation at Kosovo.

The President said the international community should take measures to isolate armed extremists and terrorists in southern Serbia and Macedonia and eliminate channels for financing militants.

http://www.kremlin.ru/eng/events/chronicle/2001/06/144464.shtml

 

[New Governor Of Alaska]

04/ 02/ 2008

Kosovo set to declare independence in February

BELGRADE, February 4 (RIA Novosti) - Kosovo will declare independence in February, the breakaway Serb province's president, prime minister and parliament speaker said on Monday after a meeting in Pristina with Albania's foreign minister.

"Parliament will declare independence in cooperation and coordination with the European Union member states, the international administration in Kosovo and the U.S.," Kosovo Albanian-language mass media quoted parliament speaker Jakup Krasniqi as saying.

http://en.rian.ru/world/20080204/98356616.html

 

[New Governor Of Alaska]

The latest news...

08/ 02/ 2008

Kosovo president says province on verge of independence

BELGRADE, February 8 (RIA Novosti) - Kosovo's president said on Friday the province is close to independence and its government is closely cooperating with international organizations to alleviate problems that may arise.

"Kosovo is on the threshold of independence and our political institutions will continue close cooperation with UNMIK (United Nations Mission in Kosovo), KFOR (Kosovo Force) and other international organizations in the province during the transition period," Fatmir Sejdiu said after talks with the head of UNMIK.

He did not name a date for the predominantly Albanian province's formal secession from Serbia. However, top European Union diplomats have said they expect independence to be declared on February 17.

Of the 27 EU states, Greece, Spain, Cyprus, Slovakia, Bulgaria and Romania have joined Serbia and Russia in opposing independence for Kosovo, saying the move could set a dangerous precedent for other breakaway territories.

Sejdiu rejected suggestions that Kosovo's independence will set a precedent.

"Kosovo is a unique issue. It cannot set a precedent for another region or country," he said.

READ MORE - http://en.rian.ru/world/20080208/98787971.html

 

[Carole]

How about CIA drug money laundering?

 

[New Governor Of Alaska]

Serbia says Kosovo's independence bid illegal

14/ 02/ 2008
BELGRADE, February 14 (RIA Novosti) - The government of Serbia passed a resolution Thursday calling 'illegal' any move by the breakaway province of Kosovo to declare unilateral independence.

The separatist Albanian-dominated province in southern Serbia is expected to unilaterally declare independence on Sunday or Monday a move backed by the United States and most EU countries. Serbia, Russia and some European states oppose the plans, considering any declaration a violation of international law.

"The resolution annuls any act or moves by the provisional authorities in Kosovo and Metohija to unilaterally declare independence as a violation of Serbia's sovereignty and territorial integrity, fixed by the Constitution of the Republic of Serbia, the UN Charter, UN Security Council Resolution 1244 as of 1999, other UN Security Council resolutions as well as by international law," the Serbian government said in a statement.

READ MORE - http://en.rian.ru/world/20080214/99244712.html

 

[New Governor Of Alaska]

EU gives final go-ahead to send its mission to Kosovo
16/ 02/ 2008

BRUSSELS, February 16 (RIA Novosti) - The European Union gave its final approval for sending a civilian and police mission to Serbia's breakaway Kosovo to replace the current UN mission, diplomatic sources in Brussels said on Saturday.
The separatist Serbian province is expected to unilaterally declare its independence on Sunday.
The sources said none of the EU member states objected to sending EULEX Kosovo mission, which comprises about 2,000 people, including 1,500 policemen.

Although Kosovo's independence is backed by the United States and most EU countries, Serbia and Russia, among others, oppose the plans, considering any unilateral declaration of independence a violation of international law.

READ MORE - http://en.rian.ru/world/20080216/99383737.html

 

[New Governor Of Alaska]

Kosovo declares independence, protests from Serbia, Russia

17/ 02/ 2008

PRISTINA, February 17 (RIA Novosti) - Belgrade and Moscow reacted angrily to Kosovo's Western-backed unilateral declaration of independence on Sunday as the region remained braced for clashes between Serbs and ethnic Albanians.

DECLARATION

"We have waited for this day for a very long time," Kosovan Prime Minister Hashim Thaci told a packed parliament at the start of an emergency session called on Sunday afternoon to, as he said, "take decisions on the future of our nation."

He said the new state would be "proud, independent and free."

Both Thaci and Kosovan President Fatmir Sejdiu pledged that the new state would respect the rights of all ethnic groups. Thaci also said that Kosovo was a unique case, and that it should not set a precedent for other secessionist regions.

The vote for independence was unanimously passed with a show of hands.

There were celebrations across Kosovo following the declaration, as thousands of people poured onto the streets of what is now, notwithstanding opposition from Serbia and Belgrade, among others, the world's newest state.

REACTIONS FROM BELGRADE AND MOSCOW

Both Belgrade and Moscow reacted angrily to the declaration of independence by Kosovo.
Serbian Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica said that it "violates international order," and that Kosovo was a "false state."

"Kosovo will forever remain a part of Serbia," he said. "We do not recognize the forceful creation of this false state. We must support our countrymen in Kosovo."

"As long as the Serb people exist, Kosovo will be Serbia," he went on. Belgrade has ruled out the use of force to retake Kosovo, however.

Serbia's main ally, Russia, immediately called for emergency UN Security Council consultations on the issue. Moscow is deeply opposed to the unilateral declaration of independence by Kosovo. It has said that it contradicts international law, and sets a dangerous precedent for other secessionist regions.

The UN Security Council meeting called by Russia is due to be held at 6:00 p.m. GMT on Sunday.

The Russian Foreign Ministry said that Kosovo's unilateral declaration of independence could lead to new conflicts in the Balkans.

"The decision of the leaders of Kosovo is fraught [with the danger of] an escalation in tensions and ethnic violence in the province, and new conflicts in the Balkans," the ministry announced on its website.

A Kremlin spokesman called the declaration "illegitimate" on Russia's Vesti TV channel.

Russia, which has consistently maintained that independence for Kosovo contradicts UN Resolution 1244 on territorial integrity, also called on the UN and NATO to annul the declaration of sovereignty.

READ MORE - http://en.rian.ru/world/20080217/99445340.html

 

[kyleAF]

Ain't it convenient that this is popping up again on the verge of another Clinton Presidency?

 

[kimo]

Ain't it convenient that this is popping up again on the verge of another Clinton Presidency?

"In politics, nothing happens by accident. If it happens, you can bet it was planned that way." -- Franklin D. Roosevelt

 

[New Governor Of Alaska]

Ain't it convenient that this is popping up again on the verge of another Clinton Presidency?

I don't see it.
Kosovo's move to declare independence was expected and known for a year.....
Here's a quote: At the latest talks in Austria in late November, Pristina continued to insist on full independence, while Belgrade was only willing to offer the province wide autonomy.

Source - U.S. stance on Kosovo is against intl. law


Serbia annuls Kosovo independence

BELGRADE, Feb. 17 (Xinhua) -- Serbian Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica on Sunday rejected the independence of Kosovo as illegal, and declared it null and void.

"The government will annul all documents that relate to the creation of a false state on the sovereign territory of the Republic of Serbia," Kostunica said in a televised address to the nation shortly after Kosovo declared independence.

Kostunica also accused the United States and NATO of violating the UN charter and breaching the international order.

He said that the government and parliamentary parties will in the coming days organize peaceful protests throughout Serbia so that citizens are able "to make themselves heard in a sign of support for their compatriots in Kosovo and Metohija", the official Tanjug news agency reported.

READ MORE - http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-02/18/content_7620262.htm