Justin Amash mulls Senate run

Pisces said:
According to supermario enough voted for Obama to give him the win. What I was trying to say is that most of them voted for neither Obama or Romney.
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Um, I think it's pretty obvious that the vast majority voted for one of the major party candidates.
 
Agreed on earlier posts. White rural vote was definitely DOWN in both Ohio and Pennsylvania, don't know about Michigan b/c I live along OH/PA border not OH/MI border. It went big to Romney, but not nearly enough. So two factors kept Romney down, a disenchanted white working class as well as a group that supported Obama because of the bailout.
 
The GOP has won an MI senate seat 3 times in 60 years over 20 races.

Don't give up your House seat for those odds, you'd be insane to.

It's not worth it. Michigan is brutal for Republicans. He's in a safe district and hopefully he stays there for many years rather than throw everything away on a fanciful senate bid because Preston Bates thinks its a good idea.
 
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Unfortunately for Justin, he doesn't live in a state that allows much upper movement. Possibly he could run for statewide office at some point in the future, or even a Senate seat down the road...

Michigan, like all upper midwestern states, is trending Republican. Urban Detroit has lost almost 250,000 people in the last decade.

It's worth noting that Michigan may be a GOP state or a very close swing state before long.

But not yet. Not a good time for Justin to run.


It must be frustrating for him to be so limited in the House, however. Senators can single-handedly block bills and all sorts of fun things, but House reps are fairly limited in the procedure they can employ.

We just need to keep supporting him and helping him to foster growth in the liberty wing of our party, and help him lead efforts on bills in the future.
 
If Levin retires, he should run because from what I can tell, the dems don't have a big name to fill in. Also, being a midterm that likely will go GOP because of low dem turnout. The issue over turnout will be if the unions can drum up enough backlash over RTW passed here recently. I'll have a better view of things after I see how things turn out at our state convention next weekend.
 
1836 said:
Unfortunately for Justin, he doesn't live in a state that allows much upper movement. Possibly he could run for statewide office at some point in the future, or even a Senate seat down the road...

Michigan, like all upper midwestern states, is trending Republican. Urban Detroit has lost almost 250,000 people in the last decade.

It's worth noting that Michigan may be a GOP state or a very close swing state before long.

But not yet. Not a good time for Justin to run.


It must be frustrating for him to be so limited in the House, however. Senators can single-handedly block bills and all sorts of fun things, but House reps are fairly limited in the procedure they can employ.

We just need to keep supporting him and helping him to foster growth in the liberty wing of our party, and help him lead efforts on bills in the future.
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I don't know. What caused Michigan to go so blue after the elections of 2000 and 2004? IIRC Bush lost those races by 5 and 3 points respectively. 08 was a blowout and Romney still lost the state by close to 10 points. If anything, the state has gone more blue? Unless that was just the Obama turnout machine at hand. That's the thing you have to watch with states like Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, which are pretty red but all have a really blue big city (Cleveland, Detroit, Philadelphia). It's so hard to gauge the overall trend of those states because a 10% turnout difference in those cities can swing elections.
 
Smart3 said:
I don't see any reason for Amash to run. We can't afford to lose him.
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Well, the reason would be that he might be able to get promoted to US Senator. Maybe if we had 218 or 219 libertarian Representatives I'd agree we couldn't afford to lose him. But we have... what?... 10? I think we can easily afford losing him in exchange for the best odds possible for a huge promotion.

This may be the last open MI Senate race for a fairly long time. 6-12 years, depending on when Stabenow decides to retire. If Amash wants to run state-wide in his Democratic leaning state, then he has to do it when the seat is open. That will provide the best odds for winning as a Republican. Furthermore, 2014 will be the mid-term elections, which generally lean opposite of the party of the sitting president. So in this case, 2014 is expected to favor Republicans.

If Amash wants to run for Senate, yes, he is young enough that he can wait for future opportunities (retirements). However, it's also possible that an open Senate race in 2014 may actually be his absolute best chance in his lifetime to win a Senate seat. Who knows.

There are certainly many factors for Amash to consider before entering the race...
- Who will be his potential primary challengers?
- If L4A, SCF, C4G, FW line up behind Justin early, will that huge money advantage scare off potential primary challengers?
- Who will be his potential Democratic opponent?
- How much money can he raise outside of the aforementioned PACs/superPACs?
- How much can the Dem raise?
- Will Amash be able to use his independence to his advantage in the general election?
- Or will he be forced to run a partisan campaign to fire up and unify the GOP?
- What will happen of his House seat? Are there any high quality state Reps to take it over?
- Is he himself actually ready to run as a big-time, state-wide candidate?
- Does the MIGOP consider Amash to be a strong candidate, or do they have someone else in mind?
- How will the Dems attack him?
- What is he going to tell MI he will do as their next Senator?

If enough important variables are lining up in his favor, then I say he should run. If L4A, SCF, C4G, FW are really throwing their weight behind Justin before Levin even announces his retirement, then I think that's an amazing sign.
 
What is the law in Michigan regarding whether or not a candidate can be on the ballot for two different races? If Amash could run for the Senate and still be on the ballot for his house race, there wouldn't really be any harm in him running for the Senate seat. It just depends on what the law in Michigan actually is.
 
Traditional Conservative said:
What is the law in Michigan regarding whether or not a candidate can be on the ballot for two different races? If Amash could run for the Senate and still be on the ballot for his house race, there wouldn't really be any harm in him running for the Senate seat. It just depends on what the law in Michigan actually is.
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When have you ever seen that as legal, in any state?
 
Preston Bates - who likes to see his name in the paper - is out in Mlive the Grand Rapids local paper pressuring Justin to run

http://www.mlive.com/news/grand-rapids/index.ssf/2013/02/super_pac_pledges_sizable_sum.html

These people have no sense. They want Justin to give up his House seat and persue a long shot Senate bid.

The GOP have won 3 senate races in Michigan in 60 years and they're never going to elect a proper conservative like Justin.

And even if they do, he's a gonner in 2020 as it's a presidential year.

It's another dumb idea from Bates. He's a clown.
 
Can someone point me in the directions of voter registration totals for Michigan? I can't seem to find them on my own. I would like to see statistics going back at least 10 years if possible.
 
These are some of Michigan's recent results. As to voter registration, a Rasmussen demographic estimate is all I could find which has Michigan pegged as 40D-33R-27I. If Levin retires, Amash should make a run for it.

2012

Obama: 2,564,569 (54.21%)
Romney: 2,115,256 (44.71%)

2008

Obama: 2,872,579 (57.33%)
McCain: 2,048,639 (40.89%)

2004

Kerry: 2,479,183 (51.2%)
Bush: 2,313,746 (47.8%)

2000 presidential

Gore: 2,170,418 (51.3%)
Bush: 1,953,139 (46.1%)

2000 Senate

Stabenow: 2,061,952 (49.5%)
Abraham: 1,994,693 (47.9%)

1994 Senate (Open Seat)

Abraham: 1,577,865 (52%)
Carr: 1,298,726 (43%)

1994 Governor

Engler (Incumbent R) 1,899,101 (61.5%)
Wolpe: 1,188,438 (38.5%)



1994 could be a very similar year to 2014 if Levin retires, with an incumbent Republican governor at the top of the ticket and an open Senate seat. 1992 was a competitive 3 way race between Clinton, Bush, and Perot (43-38) but other than that, only Bush has come close as a Republican to winning Michigan.
 
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Presidential races are much different than state races. Much less turnout usually and media attention.
 
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