Jesse Benton "30,000 expected turnout"

RP votes in.... / Population in entire state : Percent (people who voted for RP compared to total population)
Iowa: 11,817 / 2,926,324 : 0.404%
New Hampshire: 18,303 / 1,235,786 : 1.481%
Michigan: 54,434 / 9,938,444 : 0.548%

Nevada has a population of 2,495,529. If we have the same percent as Iowa, we will have about ten thousand votes.
 
I guess one question I have is why HQ keeps ignoring states.

To what end are they doing this? Where are the resources going? If he's not campaigning in Michigan for example what was he doing instead? Has he been campaigning in Nevada this entire time? I don't understand the overall strategy here.


I think it's a combination of things. Michigan for example I read is winner-takes-all so going all in to come second is silly.

Had he done well in NH or Iowa the media would have ignored it/said a fluke/indy voters etc. - plus they don't get many delegates.

Simple cost vs reward situation.

Plus he could have blown the $20m in NH and not won - look at Romney in those first two states. And heightened expectations in states where the establishment candidates are well established with many friends to call on would be unwise.

I think Ron was hoping for 3rd in one of them but we narrowly missed out.

However in real votes we're now beating Benito and Fred easily.

I think we do need some kind of "break-out" results soon, even a third, but have no idea how much spending is going on in super-tuesday states.

One thing we can say for certain - the neo-con candidates have all blown serious money and not one could make any serious claim to being a front-runner. And if a few drop out soon it will, I think, bring a natural focus onto Ron, especially during debates etc. Currently he is easy to exclude/laugh at as the odd man out vs 5 power hungry war-mongers.

However if it ends up just Ron vs McCain and Huck say it should become more obvious how superior a candidate he is.

It's a risky, rope-a-dope strategy. Ron has pulled it off a good few times in Texas. The question is will it work nationwide where people obsess over momentum etc. I don't know the answer. I think we would be in big trouble if any one candidate had won everything so far. As it is, it's all mixed up and this gives us the best shot.
 
According to an article that I read within the last week, many Nevada Republicans had not heard that there was a Republican caucus coming up. Mitt's got the majority of the Mormon vote in Nevada (which will be substantial); realistically, I think that 2nd place is the likely result in Nevada for RP.

i heard mitt is pushing for win here so double the efforts there meetups ... get the paul people there and work on gamblers in la big time ~ make personal calls

this is v important to our momentum and a victory will only happen if we overachieve here with hard work


kill the banks
 
Why did Nevada decide to change to a caucus anyway?

Long story, but you can thank Harry Reid (D) for it.

The short version. Harry wanted to move NV up so that west coast/rocky mtn states would have representation in the primary season. So the Dems moved their date up and changed to a caucus. The Republicans just piggybacked.

This caused an ugly chain reaction where Michigan, SC, & Fla all moved their dates up too, but because NV did it first (& because this was the Dems and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's deal), NV got away with it and all the others got penalized.

The plus side for us:

No one in NV has caucused before. First time for everyone. We're organized, the others aren't. Some voters feel intimidated by this whole caucus thing.

NV's never been this early before. Not a lot of people really realize it's going on, and most of them have no idea who they're backing.

It's at 9 AM on a Saturday.

Now we just need about 8 inches of snow. :D
 
it may be a good thing that people aren't prepared for this caucus. name recognition as you know means a lot to inexperienced or undecided voters, not that they're likely to caucus anyhow. But when I was in Nevada, and talking to nevadans it seems like Ron Paul is everywhere.

The grassroots there have literally sign bombed the entire state, desert and all. And all I heard and saw on radio and TV were Ron Paul ads.

Coupled with a few good appearances by the man himself, this could translate into a win for us.

Keep up the good work. We have a few days yet, we should all do our share.
 
Dont know where they get these numbers...

Voter turnout in he 2000 primary was: 211,430
http://secretaryofstate.biz/elections/results/2000Primary/VoterTurnout.asp

in 2004: 275,913

This is Reps and Dems together... but still...

Not sure about those numbers;


"Nevada has had a caucus since the 1960s, but it's typically late in the calendar -- when the nomination has already been decided -- and poorly attended. In 2004, the Nevada Democratic caucus was held Feb. 14. (The earliest it has ever been held.) U.S. Sen. John Kerry was a near-lock for the nomination. Only 9,000 people participated.

In 2000, the turnout was so small it wasn't even tracked, said Searer.

An early caucus brings different problems. Since more people are expected to participate, believing they'll have a say in the nomination, the state needs more precincts and locations. It also needs more volunteers."

However, in both those elections, the primaries were already decided, so not much excitement and no candidate was actively trying to bring out the vote...that's very different from now.

Still, with some luck, we might do well. Also, the caucus has a disadvantage from primaries that WILL apply to the Paulites;

1) It will be over by 10 AM, so we can't vote and then spend the day go dragging a few friends over to also vote
2) Its harder to convince disinterested people to come out and vote as a personal favor, since they'll have to be there for a good hour.
3) I believe you have to go to your own voting center, so you can't take friends with you in the morning if they live in different parts of town.

Nevertheless, I am hopeful. 10K Ron Paul voters is very hard but doable.

http://www.lasvegascitylife.com/articles/2007/10/18/news/cover/iq_17331627.txt
 
Turnout was very high in Iowa and New Hampshire because the race is wide open and the candidate and media publicity there was huge.

Turnout will be very low in Nevada because it's a caucus, and you had to be registered a month ago, and it's at 9 AM on a Saturday morning -- way to encourage Democracy, folks.

I expect us to do very well -- 3rd or maybe 2nd, with our highest percentage yet. A win would obviously be awesome, but 20% of the vote would also raise Ron Paul's perceived viability by several notches.
 
So you're saying Ron needs around 30% of the vote to win...

How on earth do you expect that to happen?

It's not going to. AIM FOR 3RD-4TH.

Pete

Not in Nevada. Nevada's going to be a big'n. We're aiming for first.
 
If we win, that would make my day, and I wakeup at like 10 Pacific Saturday mornings, so I'll be really energized for a day of canvassing.
 
Underpromise, overdeliver. The AP is saying Paul could take first. Great. Keep the story quiet; it's designed to inspire high turnout.
 
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