Iowa PPP Poll 12/18: Paul 23%, Romney 20%, Gingrich 14%

Some surprises:
We do best with Rick Perry voters. RP is the second choice for 18% of them. Our best favorables come from Bachmann (!) and Romney voters.
We're not getting the 2008 Huckster votes, those go to Perry. We do get the 2008 McCain vote, though :)
 
While I'm excited about this news, I also want to be realistic. Yes, our man is in the lead, but the support for the non- Ron Paul candidates is very fragmented because of the number of candidates in the race. If Bachman, Perry or Santorum were to drop out, who would their support go to? We could lose this lead in an instant if one of them leaves and I don't doubt some backroom dealing between some of them and Romney might take place to make that happen.

We need to push even further ahead so that Ron Paul wins big, not just by a few points. Everyone needs to keep doing what we've been doing so he can keep up this steady climb. 30 percent is not an unreasonable goal. Don't lose the momentum by celebrating victory too early.
 
limequat said:
Your analysis is incorrect. The poll shows voter ID based on whether or not they watched the debate. The fact that Paul was down 11% does not mean that he "lost" those people. If you read further into the cross tabs, you'll find that the type of person that watched the debate didn't fit the RP demographic. I.e, > 65, neocon types. In short, that cross tab was biased towards Fox News viewers because -cough- it WAS ON FOX NEWS.
Click to expand...

The neocon war turds also beat up Santorum in that poll. Fox Neocons love them some Santorum. What's that speak to?
 
Todd said:
The neocon war turds also beat up Santorum in that poll. Fox Neocons love them some Santorum. What's that speak to?
Click to expand...

Maybe the sample size for people who watched the debate was tiny and therefore terribly inaccurate?
 
Johnson is up to 2%! That's impressive as well. I love Johnson, and I hope he becomes VP, but I hope he drops and tells his followers to vote for Ron Paul before Jan 3rd comes around. A 2% boost would solidify Ron's current position.
 
Ya know...if Johnson would drop out we could pick up those two points.. ;)
 
Aratus said:
his dip is Dr. Ron Paul's rise! lets now spell it out!! if this keeps up, victory!!!
page one was around midnight and this is page twenty three going on 24!!!!
Click to expand...

Are you referring to Gingrich? I think we can add Perrry, Bachmann, and Frothy (all at 10% now in IA).
 
bluesc said:
Maybe the sample size for people who watched the debate was tiny and therefore terribly inaccurate?
Click to expand...

But what does this mean about Ron's debate message or performance. Doug Wead, chime in here! Hopefully people viewing in places like CA, NY, MT, etc. will be more inclined to support Ron after viewing future debates, rather than less inclined.
 
Pete Kay said:
While I'm excited about this news, I also want to be realistic. Yes, our man is in the lead, but the support for the non- Ron Paul candidates is very fragmented because of the number of candidates in the race. If Bachman, Perry or Santorum were to drop out, who would their support go to? We could lose this lead in an instant if one of them leaves and I don't doubt some backroom dealing between some of them and Romney might take place to make that happen.

We need to push even further ahead so that Ron Paul wins big, not just by a few points. Everyone needs to keep doing what we've been doing so he can keep up this steady climb. 30 percent is not an unreasonable goal. Don't lose the momentum by celebrating victory too early.
Click to expand...

I agree, and think getting Paul up to 35% in the next 10 days is not impossible. We only need the field of establishment candidates to stay diffuse until NH, after Paul wins IA and places strong in the first primary. Paul's credibility momentum as a winner can then overcome Bachmann, Santorum and Huntsman dropping out.

Most positive scenario: Paul wins Iowa big, then his momentum is so strong he has an upset win in NH! This gives him maximum mojo to have a strong second place finish in SC and FL, then another surprise win in NV. Mitt will then be totally defeated in this scenario, but even if he stays in, he helps to continue to split the vote with Newt, to Paul's benefit.
 
We are not winning over enough of the Baby Boomers yet, though, and we will need to change that, if we want to win the Republican nomination.

because with seniors Romney's blowing him out 31-15
Click to expand...
 
great pic from the article linked by drudge

http://www.theatlanticwire.com/politics/2011/12/gingrich-collapses-iowa-ron-paul-surges-front/46360/

large.jpg
 
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