Iowa PPP Poll 12/18: Paul 23%, Romney 20%, Gingrich 14%

[coastie]

This momentum will continue through the middle of March. The people will breathe a collective sigh of relief. We will then landslide the general and folks won't know what the frak to do with their new found freedom for a bit. I have been following the Clif High webbot linguistic analysis reports for a while now and this has been predicted by analysis of linguistics by bot spiders. He has been sly about it over the past several interviews so the PTW couldn't undo the mistake they were going to make in regards to their credibility.



Congrats to Ron. I am happy as it is going just like I thought it would.

Rev9

Interesting, thanks.

 

[TheNewYorker]

! The key is to now realize that Newt is DONE, and it's a complete waste to focus any energy on him. It's time to divide up between positive RP and start going negative on the Mittster.

Don't be so sure. McCain did not do well in Iowa and he still took the nomination. Bigger states like Florida and Texas matter a lot more. Iowa has a small population. It should have been easy for paul to take if he had been getting media attention like the others. Bigger states will br much harder to gain traction in with only grassroots effort. Our only hope is that if Ron wins Iowa, the media will start paying attention to him.

 

[CUnknown]

Yeah really, what ammo do they have left on Ron? The man is -squeaky f'ing clean-.

Newsletters? No? Earmarks? No? ummm..... He just can't win! No...? ummmm.....

 

[eproxy100]

Ron Paul is about to explode.

The best part about our rise -- these polls are not really measuring the support he has amongst liberals, which I can tell you, is huge and getting huger by the day. I've been noticing a dramatic change in like the past few months. Positive facebook conversations amongst my liberal friends about Ron Paul (that I did not start!), my Mom (a dyed in the wool socialist) is going to vote for him, my roommates (both of whom voted for Obama last go around) are going to vote for him in the primaries, .... it just goes on and on. I've heard many out-of-the-blue positive comments about him from liberals.

You know who I thank for this (besides Ron Paul himself, and Obama lol)? Jon Stewart. This man has done us the biggest favor anyone could have possibly done after the Ames straw poll. He's had other positive segments about him lately, too.

So.......... not only could we win the nomination... but if we win......... I think he's going ALL THE WAY.

Even on reddit he's getting a lot of praises. That debate against bachmann was helpful.

 

[undergroundrr]

How nice it is to consider that the non-interventionist message is being heard and approved. Could it be that strong resistance to a war in Iran could be Ron Paul's killer app?

 

[Peace&Freedom]

We should go heavy on attacking Mitt, but now lighten up on Newt, because this race still depends on two establishment Republicans splitting up the pro-fed, pro-war, pro-NDAA/Patriot Act/torture GOP vote in order for Paul to prevail in the early primaries. If Newt drops out (or out of sight in the polls)too quickly, most of that vote may roll to Romney, propping him up to say 35-40%, and it's game over. With both in, things stay divided enough for Paul to score key early victories.

 

[Karsten]

That will be Gingrich when he ends up 3rd lol.

 

[South Park Fan]

Don't be so sure. McCain did not do well in Iowa and he still took the nomination. Bigger states like Florida and Texas matter a lot more. Iowa has a small population. It should have been easy for paul to take if he had been getting media attention like the others. Bigger states will br much harder to gain traction in with only grassroots effort. Our only hope is that if Ron wins Iowa, the media will start paying attention to him.

McCain had NH going for him in 2008. Newt will not be able to win SC, much less the nomination, if he goes two weeks without any attention. He can only prevent that by winning either IA or NH, but the only way he can beat Romney in NH is if he has enough momentum coming out of IA to consolidate the anti-Romney vote. Since he is clearly fading in IA, his road to the nomination is almost blocked.

The only candidates with a chance of winning are (in order) Romney, Paul, Perry, and Huntsman. Romney would need to win NH and hammer Paul on his "liberal" positions so hard that he becomes a lesser evil in the minds of SC and FL. Perry has set expectations so low that he could become the teacon candidate by only finishing third in IA, and then use that to win SC and FL. Huntsman would need Paul to win IA, finish ahead of or within a few points of Romney in NH, and use Romney's falling poll numbers to become the new Establishment candidate.

 

[parocks]

This is where the rubber meets the road. I have to believe they are polling a lot of non-traditional caucus goers and I think that's what is giving us the advantage. This is why our opponents will pooh-pooh this poll. But it won't matter IF...we can get these people to the caucuses. If we do we can win this thing. If not, well then we're going to fighting off Perry, Santorum and Bachmann for third place. This is the task in front of both the official campaign and the grassroots for the next two weeks.

You're exaggerating a bit. Newt's at 14% We're at 23%. Romney is at 20%. I agree we have to round up the young men 18-29. But the consequences are not a 3rd place finish, not even close, but perhaps a close loss to Romney.

However, I've been mentioning this over and over. We are crushing it with 18-29 year old males. We crush it with 18-29 year old males everywhere. We want every 18-29 year old male to vote. We don't need to ID them. That's what these polls are doing for us. Generic 18-29 year old male is a Ron Paul supporter.

Also consider, Romney does not crush it, at all, with 18-29, or with males. If we got all 18-29 year old males to vote, that group would contain more Bachmann, Santorum and Gingrich votes than Romney votes (or Perry votes), and would tend to push down Romneys and Perrys numbers.

 

[Karsten]

^^Actually, although most of us don't like 99% of Dean's positions, he was the first to use the aggressive grassroots internet methods that we are now using to our success.

 

[nbruno322]

The media is already trying to pump Romney up - with the D. Register newspaper and his sunday talk show appearances. I bet they will try to shape the narrative around him now its obvious the newt bubble has burst. At the same time expect attacks on paul.

 

[tsai3904]

Compared to last week's poll, this poll had:

3% more Democrats and Independents
4% more Men
4% more 18 to 45

 

[specsaregood]

However, I've been mentioning this over and over. We are crushing it with 18-29 year old males. We crush it with 18-29 year old males everywhere. We want every 18-29 year old male to vote. We don't need to ID them. That's what these polls are doing for us. Generic 18-29 year old male is a Ron Paul supporter.

Paul leads all the way up to the 45 range. It's pretty obvious to me that he leads with anybody that has spent more than a decade online.

 

[parocks]

This is pretty remarkable. Paul went from 11% to 23% in a blink! Meanwhile Romney went from 26 to 20%. So we picked up some Romneybots! The key is to now realize that Newt is DONE, and it's a complete waste to focus any energy on him. It's time to divide up between positive RP and start going negative on the Mittster.

Is propping up Bachmann and Santorum at the expense of Perry and Gingrich also an option. It seemed like that was Ron Paul strategy in the Tonight Show interview.

Bachmann and Santorum are unlikely to raise money over the long run. They might as well be 3 and 4 in Iowa. Would prefer them in the 3 and 4 slots instead of Gingrich and Perry.

 

[Revolution9]

Ron Paul vs the NWO. FTW!

Rev9

 

[sailingaway]

Is propping up Bachmann and Santorum at the expense of Perry and Gingrich also an option. It seemed like that was Ron Paul strategy in the Tonight Show interview.

Bachmann and Santorum are unlikely to raise money over the long run. They might as well be 3 and 4 in Iowa. Would prefer them in the 3 and 4 slots instead of Gingrich and Perry.

No. They have 10% each. they are already too close when you count second choice votes.

 

[Agorism]

Comprable polls around this time in 2007
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statew...lican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2008#Iowa

LA Times/Bloomberg December 20–23, 26, 2007 Mike Huckabee 37%, Mitt Romney 23%, John McCain 11%, Fred Thompson 11%, Rudy Giuliani 6%, Ron Paul 2%, Duncan Hunter 1%, Undecided 9%
American Research Group
Sampling Size: 600
Margin of Error: ± 4%
December 20–23, 2007 Mike Huckabee 23%, Mitt Romney 21%, John McCain 17%, Rudy Giuliani 14%, Ron Paul 10%, Fred Thompson 3%, Duncan Hunter 2%, Alan Keyes 2%, Undecided 8%
American Research Group
Sampling Size: 600
Margin of Error: ± 4%
December 16–19, 2007 Mike Huckabee 28%, John McCain 20%, Mitt Romney 17%, Rudy Giuliani 13%, Fred Thompson 5%, Ron Paul 4%, Tom Tancredo 1%, Alan Keyes 1%, Duncan Hunter -%, Undecided 11%
Strategic Vision (R)
Sampling Size: 600LV
Margin of Error: ± 4.5%
December 16–18, 2007 Mike Huckabee 31%, Mitt Romney 25%, Fred Thompson 16%, John McCain 8%, Rudy Giuliani 6%, Ron Paul 5%, Tom Tancredo 2%, Duncan Hunter 1%, Undecided 6%
Rasmussen Reports
Sampling Size: 496
Margin of Error: ± 4%
December 17, 2007 Mike Huckabee 28%, Mitt Romney 27%, John McCain 14%, Rudy Giuliani 8%, Fred Thompson 8%, Ron Paul 6%, Tom Tancredo 2%, Duncan Hunter 1%
Strategic Vision (R)
Sampling Size: 600LV
Margin of Error: ± 4.5%
December 8–10, 2007 Mike Huckabee 30%, Mitt Romney 25%, Fred Thompson 13%, Rudy Giuliani 10%, John McCain 5%, Ron Paul 4%, Tom Tancredo 3%, Duncan Hunter 1%, Undecided 9%

American Research Group was the only one that had him at 10%, and that is one of the ones that RCP average doesn't accept i believe.

 

[akterence]

This is what we've worked so hard for...now is not the time to rest...keep pushing guys/gals

Americans are waking up!!!

 

[parocks]

Paul leads all the way up to the 45 range. It's pretty obvious to me that he leads with anybody that has spent more than a decade online.

Sure. Agreed. We have better margins in 18-29, but yes, 30-45 is also strong. Pretty much half the guys in any bar you go to in Des Moines like Ron Paul.

We don't seem to do anything like that. We'll go to their houses, walk around, knock on their doors. But for some reason we won't talk to them in bars? Maybe that's the exact thing we should be doing.

 

[parocks]

No. They have 10% each. they are already too close when you count second choice votes.

We're at 23%

They're at 10%

Gingrich is at 14%

I'd rather see Bachmann and Santorum at 14% than Gingrich at 14%.