Okay, let's be grown ups, gear up for the battle ahead, AND face the reality that the best scenario for Paul winning the nomination (placing 1st in Iowa) has eluded us. The bad news is, this eliminates our chance to get a media bounce out of Iowa. We'll have to keep fighting the MSM to the bitter end. The good news---there's lemonade:
1) Should Santorum squeak out the win/virtual tie in IA, it denies a clean 'win' for Romney there. Romney wins NH next week, so the big issue is SC. If Newt holds the lead and wins there, there is no perception of Romney running away with the nomination.
2) We now have clarity about both the potency of youth and independent voters, and the impact of the major media. The MSM cannot block Paul out of coverage, as proven during the campaign, but they can still perform a short term hatchet job to cost us a key victory. As always, despite the best organization to get them out, there is a roof as to how many young people and indys will RELIABLY show up. We must now learn to expect a moderate turnout of Paul's "secret weapons" instead of the blue skies projections we have been making.
3) The MSM thinks they've won, and may go back to sleep in tracking Paul. This gives Paul activists a chance to make the other caucus wins happen, since the GOP and media won't be as observant about beating back our supporters across the country, as they were in the first contest.
4) If blatant GOP/MSM machinations continue to happen to take a pipe to Paul's knee between now and the end of February, Paul will have the pretext he needs to quit the Republican race and run 3rd party before super Tuesday (so that he won't be hurt by sour-grapes law states as an independent). OR, he could announce he would be continuing to run for the GOP nomination, AND for the LP/CP nomination. This will force Republicans to choose between supporting him as the nominee, or else going down to certain defeat in November.
I personally think he should have taken this both/and hard-core route from the beginning. If the establishment threatens to cripple Rand Paul's career if Paul goes 3rd party, Rand can run in 2016 and ALSO threaten to go 3rd party. One way or the other, the movement must continue to cause THEM pain, in order for any change to happen. Otherwise, it'll be US feeling the pain, again, as many of us are tonight.