Iowa Caucuses Return Watching - OFFICIAL THREAD!!! (1/3/12)

[Liberty74]

Sorry to be pessimistic but if we can't win this it proves there is no way to win period. The zombie voters will continue to be manipulated by the media.

You have to use the media better and know how to herd the sheep, cattle and mass tools.

 

[Joey Wahoo]

Reality check: If we win, with say 25% of the vote, that means 75% of the voters chose someone else. Arguably the only reason we'll have won is because the other candidates split the idiot vote. We just need to come out of this in the top tier--which is guaranteed to happen. Then we have to start trying to pick up the supporters of those who start dropping out.

Cry-baby conspiracy theorists who can't handle finishing a few hundred votes out of first in freaking IOWA aren't helping the cause.

And, for what its worth, I still think we'll win this thing.

 

[tbone717]

So, who drops out after tonight, and who stays till NH, we know Ron is staying till NH.

Bachmann is done. Newt is done after NH. Frothy, Huntsman and Perry after SC.

 

[AlexG]

So, who drops out after tonight, and who stays till NH, we know Ron is staying till NH.

No one is dropping out yet, there are still two more debates until NH so there's no incentive

 

[willwash]

Where are you all seeing the percentage reporting BY COUNTY?

 

[Dustancostine]

Yep.

We're relying on a good vote there. In fact, if we don't win there by a sizable margin we've lost.

How many votes there last time.

 

[Lafayette]

The only thing that gives me hope is that CNN keeps talking about Ron and is not saying he is going to get 3rd

Well they just flashed an ad for Santorum live at midnight on CNN so that may be a clue.

 

[cdc482]

you guys shouldn't get so down right now. it'll be really weird when we win.

 

[KramerDSP]

Paul Could Gain from College Counties
Although Ron Paul has fallen slightly behind Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney in the vote-counting, he still has a chance of winning - in part because some of his strongest areas, college towns, have been slow to report results.

Story County, where Iowa State University is located, has had none of its 43 precincts report. And only 22 of 57 precincts have reported in Johnson County, home to the University of Iowa. (Mr. Paul has 36 percent of the votes there so far.)

 

[Lovecraftian4Paul]

Hard to know what will happen tonight. I hope for a change in a more positive direction, just like everyone else.

If not, context is important: we were only hoping for third last time, and came trailing in at fifth. That was a much bigger disappointment than this.

There's also a clear margin of difference between the top three and everyone else this time.

I only wonder what happens from here if the results play out in the order they are currently in.

Santorum can't go anywhere. Romney and Paul must fight it out in New Hampshire. Will the media do a week long blitz for Huntsman there like they did for Santorum in Iowa?

 

[nyrgoal99]

Guys, lots of Des Moines to go. Ames isn't coming in yet.

Lots of time to go.

The exit polls are not well specified. Some of the questions indicate different vote tallies. CNN says they have Ron Paul up by 1% overall, and there's a reason for that, so let's see what happens.

On the flip side. Ron Paul supporters are more likely to do an entrance or exit poll

 

[Ex Lux lucis]

Just looked at a map displaying results and there is santorum EVERYWHERE.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

guys stay positive, only 49 % of the precincts are counted and there are still college town precincts to be counted.its going to be a long night. Ron can still win.santorum cant garner the independents, and he wont do well in any other state,all we need is Ron in strong 2nd and romney in 3rd.

 

[RDM]

Bunch of women on this thread with bunged up skirts.

 

[mLakomy]

does anyone know what's up with Emmet County? They had 175 people vote "other", that's 36% or something

 

[asurfaholic]

Don't be stupid. IA is 1% of the delegates.

What about the perception issue? Can Ron win the nom after placing 3rd in Iowa?

 

[sailingaway]

Sorry to be pessimistic but if we can't win this it proves there is no way to win period. The zombie voters will continue to be manipulated by the media.

No, there was a specific band of known lockstep voters, a FRACTION of the evangelicals (Ron got MORE evangelicals per entrance polls) went to someone unvetted. that is not going to repeat everywhere. Unfortunately this gives Gingrich legs because he has a South Carolina game, and if Ron doesn't win tonight Gingrich is in better position. BUT if Perry drops out, we may pick up some of his people. And if he doesn't, he may give Gingrich a run for his money.

 

[cdc482]

Fox News saying that Ron Paul will win the remaining 51%

 

[nyrgoal99]

Well they just flashed an ad for Santorum live at midnight on CNN so that may be a clue.

They were doing that at 6pm

 

[jordie]

Even if he takes 3rd tonight, it will still practically be a statistical tie! And NH is looking like a solid 2nd. Look how far we've come in 4 years, guys! This movement is much bigger than a stupid election. Even if RP doesn't win, we've scared the establishment shitless. Perk up! Even if we lose this battle, we're winning the war.

This. We're prety much TIED for FIRST in IOWA. Couple of months ago, a few years ago, did you think such a thing would happen? We're solidly 2nd in NH. Santorum can't surge in NH. Only Gingrich or Hunstman will. RP is pretty solid there TBH.