In Virginia, a Vote for Huckabee is a vote for Paul [Moderator: Info is unverified]

I agree wholeheartedly, we need to stop McCain, and Huckabee is the only one with a good shot at it right now. We just need for Ron Paul and Mike Huckabee to get a combined total of 54%+ of the remaining delegates. We stop voting for Huckabee when we can be assured that McCain won't get to the point where the GOP delegates can decide the nomination, and also the same for Huckabee. As soon as Huckabee wins 600 more delegates, we vote for Ron Paul again.
 
Originally Posted by amistybleu
Maybe you people with this scheme should run it by the campaign.

The campaign could never endorse this, even if it is the best strategy. My opinion for what it is worth is that through these forums the strategy can be encouraged as sound but optional.

Option A is for those who believe the best chance for Ron Paul, president, a greater impact or even some power with his delagates over a undecided nomination and that makes it a must to try and stop McCain winning any states where he will win ALL the delegates, including helping Huckabee win, but in states that it is proportional we go hell for leather.

Option B is for those who equally understandably either believe principle is better than strategy and want to vote for RP regardless of the stragetic consequences OR those who have given up on RP having any chance of president or any impact (i.e. perhaps believing the media that McCain has this wrapped up).

Personally I would much rather McCain not win by 1-3% and instead live with 1-3% less in Virginia for RP. Meanwhile in Maryland where it is proportional apparently post what we can.

In Washington State the Campaign basically did just such a strategic move, one far less important than stopping McCain getting every single delegate in Virgina, when they suggested that RP voters mark undecided (in the interests of gaining more delegates rather than a win in the straw poll with no delegates involved...check the Winning Washington Forum). If even half the undecideds were Ron Paul supporters doing what the Campain asked, which wouldnt be surprising these votes could have put RP in the winners circle. Two for MH and one for RP would have been very nice headlines and a real dampener for McCain's momentum, but Campaign is trying to win delegates and just like the Huckabee campaign, praying McCain does get the delegates to lock this up.

Now being an Aussie I am able to bet on these things and I had RP at 50-1 to win Washington so when I heard about these tactics I went damn, but I understand them and and am not bitter. I just wish Huckabee had of been ahead and not that it meant they could 'claim' a win for McCain.

In war against a bigger opponent it is smart to make any other enemy with mutual interest your friend, and right now we need to be Sun Tzu in our approach to have any chance against McCain and the GOP power elite who have now prematurely annointed him.

McCain is weak, in South Carolina this year for his great trumpeted "triumph" he got like 10% less votes than the "failure" against Bush. RP was always a long shot but we have a great opportunity against a weak opponent, but it is Huckabee who is the key right now. The US didn't like Stalin, but as soon as they became the Hitler's eneny they became our friend and it was the Eastern Front that turned the war and without US help the Eastern front would have fallen. Mike Huckabee might not be everyone's cup of tea, but he is a lot better than Stalin.

I personally feel if McCain loses Virginia he is finished.

Cheers!
 
My wager on RP in Washington

Republican Primaries / Primaries 09 February / Washington Caucus
Any Other Back 10-Feb-08
02:23 50 26.54 50 10-Feb-08 02:23

RP was listed under "any other" and Romney, who dropped out, was listed under his name...how stupid was that.
 
One word: momentum.

As we've all seen, the sheep don't give a damn about anything more than picking a winner.

Although I understand this strategy, and it has merit, I don't think I can participate.

RP has finally arrived at double digits. Hard enough to sell the unelectability factor.

Both huck and mc100war have baggage but mc100war is easier to take down over the long run, IMO, even if he does win Virginia. Just look at all the websites and such that have popped up against mc100war!!!! I think republicans could actually justify huck to themselves if they had to.

I don't want to contribute to anyone's upward momentum unless it's Ron Paul's.
 
Originally Posted by hawks4ronpaul
RP supporters already voted for a Huckabee victory in WV so Huckabee supporters should vote for an RP victory in VA.

http://hawks4ronpaul.blogspot.com/

I second that. Also we already found out that when we help Huckabee he just ends up denying that he recieved any help or at least denies there was any deals made. Huckabee is a snake and it's a shame that even the "very elect" don't see it .


This has nothing to do with helping Huckabee, this is about end result for RP. Without the decision in West Virginia a tougher opponent than Huckabee Romney might still be in the race (look at Washington he polled almost as much as the top 3 and he isn't even in the race anymore) and instead of Romney probably winning Washington, we almost had a first past the post win for RP in WA and he will romp in on the delegate count it seems. Huckabee cannot get enough votes to win, but McCain can and if we help stop that either directly or indirectly McCain is finished. Please argue the merits and by all means shoot down the idea on passion and voting principle, but what Huckabee is or did is irrelevant to the discussion.

I am an Aussie who thinks RP is awesome, have hated how the media treated him and have enjoyed putting a little money on him as very long odds. You will be lucky if the media even reports RP's % he will get in VA, and no one but us RP supporters will care if he got 10 or 17%, just that he came third. We needs wins and we need McCain not to get those 1,100 votes, then we will have some fun and games and Ron Paul will have a bunch of delegates (many from WA) to throw around.

But one thing, if you believe the VA poll taken before Saturday and immediately post Romney out (which I think may well have shifted considerably from the dynamics since) Huckabee has no chance, so then there is no point.
 
Tomorrow may be the only chance I ever get in my life to vote for Ron Paul short of writing him in and I'm not going to throw that chance away to play Machiavelli.
 
I fully respect that view, I am being a bit more optomistic and hoping that a 'hung' result at the end of all these primaries might give you a second chance to vote for our 350-1 shot at being the Republican nominee (I prefered these odds to the 500-1 to be president and have a nice little ).
 
If you want to see the odds you can see them on www.betfair.com and under serach type in "Presidential" they have odds on the primaries as well. RP as I said was (I thought) a rediculous 50-1 for the Washington Caucus.
 
I agree with the original poster. We have to be reasonable about this. If there is no chance at all for Ron Paul in a particular state, we have to encourage a candidate that will help a brokered convention.

It's a simple strategy, just like the Ron Paul supporters did in Western Virginia. That win helped wake up Huckabee's campaign.
 
I just went for a look on Huckabee's site (I was curious where he was concentrating his campaigning appearances) and saw this stupid statement on a blog

http://www.mikehuckabee.com/?FuseAction=Blogs.Home

Path to win through a Brokered Convention

1) McCain can be prevented from winning 1191 delegates.
According to RealClearPolitics McCain has 720 delegates & still needs
471 to win.
That means he has to get 44% of the remaining delegates to secure 1191.

2) So Huckabee needs to win 57% of the remaining delegates to force this
to a Brokered Convention.

............................

Now I understand the big media ignoring RP, but NO idiot, Huckabee does not need 57% he only needs 57% less the delegates RP will get, like the majority he will get in WA.
 
Hey Virginia!

This is a game (sort of) and you can't win unless you play it with some stategy...The ONLY way Dr. Paul can become the nominee at this point is to get to a brokered convention...I know this sounds unreasonable to expect your vote to go to someone other than Ron Paul...But

We have to beat Mccain who is polling high...The only way is to ensure the outcome we want.

We have to be smart about this. And we are smarter than them..Look at the stealth delegates we already have in place..We just have to lose our personal pride for the greater good...Which sucks...but think of WV and you'll know that they played the game to our advantage..

Any poker players out there who can help with an anology that everyone can understand?
 
Tomorrow may be the only chance I ever get in my life to vote for Ron Paul short of writing him in and I'm not going to throw that chance away to play Machiavelli.

+1776

Also, I received a robocall from Dr. Paul today reminding me to vote for him tomorrow. He didn't say anything about casting a "strategic vote" for Huckabee. I think I'll do what the good doctor asked me to and vote for him tomorrow.
 
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If Huck is to win Virginia, he needs to win it himself, with the help of his own supporters.

A low percentage for RP, one that's even lower than what he is polling, would be bad particularly given his recent gains. That momentum must continue.
 
+1776

Also, I received a robocall from Dr. Paul today reminding me to vote for him tomorrow. He didn't say anything about casting a "strategic vote" for Huckabee. I think I'll do what the good doctor asked me to and vote for him tomorrow.

Again let me state there are reasons to go with the strategy of trying to help Huckabee beat McCain in this crucial winner take all one (or not on passion or conscience), but this above is not one of them. In WA the campaign virtually did that in asking members to put undecided which cost RP the win in the beauty contest (and me 50-1 at the bookmakers) so they could 'sneak' in more delegates. But no campaign can publically ask their supporters to vote for another candidate as that would be one time you can be sure RP would get heaps of publicity.

Maybe I'm wrong but if Huckabee wins by 1% tomorrow don't you think champagne will be flowing at RP headquarters, but if he loses by 1& and the media starts hailing John McCain as now having 'yruly' locked in the nomination, they and all of us (me thinks) will let out a big groan wjater RP's percentage.
 
And 'Campaign' in Washington State thought in their wisdom that getting delegates was more important than a huge banner headline fire-up-our-bellies win (that we missed out on). In Virginia the opportunity cost is minicule in comparison (RP is polling 5%) so we are talking only the difference between say 3% and 10% (something like we got at the LA primary I would guess) and let me say that stopping McCain getting delegates is the next best thing to getting our own.
 
On this point is this argument even worth having...what is the feeling there in VA, are those polls (back Thu and Fri with a lot of dynamics since) right and do you think McCain has almost a 2-1 over Huckabee or is the feeling there on the ground that this could be close?

If its not cgoing to be close might as well grab a few more % for RP and the argument is moot.
 
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