It is true no one really knows what will happen but when you try and sell only RP is electable you are going to have to agree on some common electoral idicators and that is polls. RP and Romney are the only ones competitive against Obama. That is the building blocks you are going to have to work with in convincing new voters.
Polls are
one indicator they are not the sole indicator nor are all polls created equally (note here I'm not meaning to imply you don't know this, I am simply attempting to be clear regarding my stance).
One example most call centers are
not allowed to call cell phones, that's not a manipulation it's simply a result policy created because of cell plans charging by the minute. However while the intent that created those policies isn't manipulative they still have an impact on the sample of those surveyed in the polls.
Combine that with the results of exit polling (one of the instances of polling that doesn't have the cell limitation) where in we see that Ron Paul gets nearly 50% of the youth vote while the rest is split between the other contenders.
On average a younger demographic is more likely to have a cell as their primary (sometimes only) phone. I trust the impact is clear.
Further in many polls considering the GOP nominating contest the sample group is specifically "likely Republican voters" which is fine on face but likely is usually determined by having voted previously in that party and primary. Again fine as far as it goes but that once more focuses the selection on certain demographics more than others once more tending to leave out youth (totally leaving out first time voters in many cases) and independents.
Yet another example (relevant considering the things I listed in my prior post) I have yet to see a polling methodology that specifically addresses "the Mormon factor" and again we liberty minded folks can say all day long that such a thing shouldn't make a brake someones vote but when 25% of those polled say it does that's not an insignificant portion of the population. Do the current polls include those people? Do the specifically exclude those people? Do they address the people who hold that view at all? Usually the answer is they have no aspect in their methodology so we cannot assess what percentage, if any, of the sample of a given poll contains people who hold that stance. As such we're left with drawing on that same 25% figure and asking the question "how can Romney overcome that disadvantage".
Narrative also matters as I'm sure you well know. In point of fact that's most of why polls matter, because they can impact the perception of the candidates.
I'm not saying "the polls have no effect" or "we shouldn't talk about polling" but I am saying there are noteworthy weaknesses of Romney as a candidate in the general election that polling alone simply does not address and those weaknesses aren't going away simply because polling methodologies fail to account for them.
Personally a have yet to see any persuasive arguments as to why Romney is actually a viable candidate in the general election against Obama.
What can Romney bring to the table which sways Indy and cross over voters? Or the less partisan youth vote?
Most of how he can differentiate himself from Obama will be shades of grey and even on the more stark issues he's usually changed his stance on them so they still don't provide him with much traction. Will those new stances (like his being against abortion) win over some voters? Sure, but will it motivate enough voters to go to the polls on his behalf to counter the support Obama has?
Obama has more showmanship than Romney
Obama has more funding than Romney (and won't have to start spending until the general)
Obama doesn't have to shift his rhetoric as much because he's only got the general not a primary to run (an advantage of being incumbent)
Obama doesn't have the handy cap associated with public impressions of being Mormon
This is not meant to be rhetorical, I honestly don't see what Romney can do to win the general against Obama. What does Romney offer outside the party line that will secure the majority of swing voters for him over Obama? And how does Romney overcome the lack of enthusiasm among even the GOP party line that can result in a lower turnout within the vanguard of his support?
Based on the information I am aware of Romney is a strong candidate for the nomination and quite a weak one for the general election.
As to Ron Paul in contrast, it is true some of this problems are things he'll have to face as well and it'll be a tough run regardless. From the list above
Obama has more showmanship than Paul (I love Dr. Pauls honesty and his consistency, but he's no smooth talker)
Obama has more funding than Paul (and won't have to start spending until the general)
Obama doesn't have to shift his rhetoric as much because he's only got the general not a primary to run (an advantage of being incumbent)
^^This remains true however Paul won't be shifting his rhetoric either and in fact has held his positions even longer than Obama so the effect is a wash if not in Pauls favor.
Obama doesn't have the handy cap associated with public impressions of being Mormon
^^Paul doesn't have this problem either
Beyond that no one questions that the support for Paul is passionate, and exit polls as well as general polls show Paul pulling in more votes from Indys, youth, and cross over democrats than any of the other GOP (so much so that some among the GOP have even taken time to attack him on that very point claiming he/his support is "conservative in name only"). Further Paul has 'put his money where his mouth is' on key issues that Obama campaigned on but didn't follow through. Things like ending the warmongering, opposing the NDAA, repealing the "Patriot" Act. In addition to that ending the 'war on drugs' is actually a big deal come the general election I know the subject gets a semi-taboo treatment a lot of the time during this nominating process but it's decidedly an asset during a general election because of how it plays for many key demographics that are traditionally considered either swing or democrat.
I'm not saying a Ron Paul nomination makes the general a foregone conclusion, far from it. But best I can tell from the issues the fact of the matter is that Ron Paul is a stronger candidate to win the general election than Willard 'Mitt' Romney.
