I statement making the rounds
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Edward
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No one doubts that Ron stands a very good chance in a head-to-head with Obama, but the same is true of Romney. What is not true - at least with how public opinion currently stands - is that Ron or Romney can beat Obama in a three-way race.
Edward
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Not trying to go pro-Romney here, but wanted to show that he is doing alright thus far:
"Gallup state numbers predict huge Obama loss"
http://campaign2012.washingtonexami...-state-numbers-predict-huge-obama-loss/352881
Now all of a sudden you want to believe a poll. Every poll out there shows Romney doing better against obama including the one you just posted and that destroys the meme that only RP can beat obama. Sell Rp as having and equal chance of beating Obama but with Paul you get a principaled Republican that didn't vote support TARP.
gerryb
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Didn't realize Perot pulled so much from Clinton... I know the polls show RP at 18% as 3rd party(And he WILL NOT run 3rd party, barring a poll actually showing him win), but I think RP would do much better than Perot. If only someone like Kucinich had a national organization to run, it could be an interesting 4 way race.
Travlyr
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I don't believe a poll in January has any effect on an election in November. What I am referring to is the fact that a lot of Ron Paul supporters are going to be voting on principle this November no matter what. I am a life long Republican who will only vote for Ron Paul because Ron Paul will bring the troops home, create jobs, and work for competing currencies. There is no reason for 99% of the people to vote for anyone else if they knew the truth. A lot of truth will be told this year.
More importantly, layoffs this year will be greater than in the past because the breakdown in the economy continues. Archer Daniels Midland is laying off 1000 employees. The airlines are laying off 1000s. The United States may look very different in November than it does now.
I think this would turn people off more than anything, and only get cheers from those that already support Paul. For one thing, my friends on facebook are actually my friends and family, and I won't be issuing them any ultimatums. A much better strategy would be to get involved in your local GOP, make friends, influence people, and use your votes and voice to get liberty minded people into officer positions in your state and local GOP.
I got many comments in 08 from people I had persuaded to caucus that many Ron Paul people that showed up were rude, antagonistic, and a huge turn off.
If you plan to pull the GOP in Pauls direction by showing up for a couple hours once every 4 years and issuing ultimatums I'm sorry, but you're not going to get anywhere. And starting a 3rd party as I've seen many people say around here is just a losing proposition, the Libertarians have been at it forever.
I got many comments in 08 from people I had persuaded to caucus that many Ron Paul people that showed up were rude, antagonistic, and a huge turn off.
If you plan to pull the GOP in Pauls direction by showing up for a couple hours once every 4 years and issuing ultimatums I'm sorry, but you're not going to get anywhere. And starting a 3rd party as I've seen many people say around here is just a losing proposition, the Libertarians have been at it forever.
Edward
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All that helps Ron or Romney in a head-to-head match-up vs. Obama. It doesn't help Ron secure the GOP nomination.
Noblegeorge
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Hi everyone, this is my first post- be gentle!
Just wanted to weigh in on this discussion. Whether it's ill conceived to go about it in this fashion, I think this statement made some excellent points and speaks the truth. That truth is that the GOP cant beat Obama without the support of the pro liberty, anti-fed, anti-war movement. I think its a truth the GOP and the other candidates have begun to recognize, as has been shown in recent debates by Gingrich's pandering (previously brash and disrespectful towards RP) and of course by Romney who has steadfastly refused to criticize Ron. I would like to think this is because he recognizes Ron is his intellectual superior! But im sure it is because he believes Ron will not get the nomination and he gains nothing by attacking him when he will need RP supporters to back him in a two horse race with Obama. And its true, whatever the polls say now, barring a further plunge in the economy, Romney doesnt have a hope against Obama without those voters and the other independents. Theyre even in polls and Obama has barely begun campaigning. He's quicker on his feet than Romney, a better debater, more likeable, more appealing to the lower class, more appealing to racial minorities, he's even got a better singing voice! Quite simply, Romney cant beat Obama at his own game.
The conservative side of the media of course refuses to accept the likelihood of this outcome. So while this statement may antagonize some people, no one will doubt its sincerity, least of all the other GOP voters who are recognizing the huge swell of support for RP. Maybe it will get them thinking a vote for Romney is a vote for Obama in the end. Maybe they will recognize that if they back Ron Paul for the nomination, they will put someone against Obama who is in stark contrast to Obama. Someone who actually has the record to suggest he will deliver the change that Obama promised and failed to deliver. All those independents (and democrats) who voted for some real change in 2008 but never got it?? They'll vote for Paul and it will be tight, theres a good chance Ron wont win, but it will be a real contest and a real debate.
OK ive gone on long enough and probably got a little lost along the way! I definitely think the campaign should make more of Romneys UNELECTABILITY in the long run and place more focus on taking on Obama directly (as Romney has always done). That certainly would help bring hardcore Republicans our way without RP compromising his principles. Well look forward to conversing with you all in what is a very exciting and hopeful time!
Just wanted to weigh in on this discussion. Whether it's ill conceived to go about it in this fashion, I think this statement made some excellent points and speaks the truth. That truth is that the GOP cant beat Obama without the support of the pro liberty, anti-fed, anti-war movement. I think its a truth the GOP and the other candidates have begun to recognize, as has been shown in recent debates by Gingrich's pandering (previously brash and disrespectful towards RP) and of course by Romney who has steadfastly refused to criticize Ron. I would like to think this is because he recognizes Ron is his intellectual superior! But im sure it is because he believes Ron will not get the nomination and he gains nothing by attacking him when he will need RP supporters to back him in a two horse race with Obama. And its true, whatever the polls say now, barring a further plunge in the economy, Romney doesnt have a hope against Obama without those voters and the other independents. Theyre even in polls and Obama has barely begun campaigning. He's quicker on his feet than Romney, a better debater, more likeable, more appealing to the lower class, more appealing to racial minorities, he's even got a better singing voice! Quite simply, Romney cant beat Obama at his own game.
The conservative side of the media of course refuses to accept the likelihood of this outcome. So while this statement may antagonize some people, no one will doubt its sincerity, least of all the other GOP voters who are recognizing the huge swell of support for RP. Maybe it will get them thinking a vote for Romney is a vote for Obama in the end. Maybe they will recognize that if they back Ron Paul for the nomination, they will put someone against Obama who is in stark contrast to Obama. Someone who actually has the record to suggest he will deliver the change that Obama promised and failed to deliver. All those independents (and democrats) who voted for some real change in 2008 but never got it?? They'll vote for Paul and it will be tight, theres a good chance Ron wont win, but it will be a real contest and a real debate.
OK ive gone on long enough and probably got a little lost along the way! I definitely think the campaign should make more of Romneys UNELECTABILITY in the long run and place more focus on taking on Obama directly (as Romney has always done). That certainly would help bring hardcore Republicans our way without RP compromising his principles. Well look forward to conversing with you all in what is a very exciting and hopeful time!
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I actually disagree with nothing in your post here. I probably myself will not vote for anybody but paul in the general. My point is it doesn't help get RP the nomination to shout NOBP. It is true and they know it but to use this as a campaign tactic is a no win approach.
Just imagine going out canvassing and you come across a voter that says "I like RP but I think I am going to vote for Newt."
You reply. "Well I tell you what, If RP doesn't get it I am not voting for your candidate and he WILL lose to Obama! Are you still going to vote for Newt now?!"
What do you think the response would be.
AdamL
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I think posting something like this is a horrible idea that will only hurt Ron Paul's campaign by making us look like bratty children threatening to stomp our feet and throw a tantrum if people don't do what we say. Ron Paul supporters already have a serious perception problem and this will just reinforce the idea that we're a cult of nutjobs. If I saw this from another candidate's supporters I would be immediately turned off. People do NOT respond well to blackmail.
The passion is good, but the message is terrible...
The passion is good, but the message is terrible...
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TheTexan
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The Romney vs Obama polls are misleading because most of them don't account for a third party. They either don't give the third party option at all, or just say "Third party" instead of naming a 3rd party option specifically.
There's a large portion of the Republican-leaning electorate that's very frustrated with the Republican party, and it's not just RP supporters. The third party effect this election cycle is not to be underestimated, and RP is the only Republican candidate that captures those voters.
You can replace "Paul" with Johnson or some other candidate, and while Romney will still do slightly better, Obama will still win handily. Even if Paul and Johnson weren't on the ballot, there's going to be a 3rd party to fill that 'anti-status-quo' void, and whoever that is will hand Obama a victory if the R nominee isn't Paul.
There's a large portion of the Republican-leaning electorate that's very frustrated with the Republican party, and it's not just RP supporters. The third party effect this election cycle is not to be underestimated, and RP is the only Republican candidate that captures those voters.
You can replace "Paul" with Johnson or some other candidate, and while Romney will still do slightly better, Obama will still win handily. Even if Paul and Johnson weren't on the ballot, there's going to be a 3rd party to fill that 'anti-status-quo' void, and whoever that is will hand Obama a victory if the R nominee isn't Paul.
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TheTexan
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I'm gonna stop you right there. People need to see the passion. This isn't some ho-hum candidate. Dr. Paul is literally the best thing since sliced bread, and people need to know it.
edit: and welcome to the forums!
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LiveForHonortune
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Because it's Paul or nothing.
You don't use a meme as an argument like that. Not to mention, you can word anything badly to make it sound bad.
A better, sane, realistic response in that situation would be: "What is it you like about Ron and Newt? What's the deciding factor for Newt?"
This isn't aimed at you directly... but why is it okay for people to openly say:
"I would NEVER vote for Romney."
or
"I would NEVER vote for Gingrich."
or even
"I would NEVER vote for Paul."
but...
it's not okay to say
"I would NEVER vote for Romney or Gingrich."?
Why is that the only sentence that people take issue with, except for party loyalists, of course, who think you should vote for an R, period.
Why should anyone be upset with anyone for using their vote as they see fit, assuming said vote was placed at least somewhat rationally?
Why is it okay for the media to harp on every poll that says what they want, and to practically put up a neon sign that 'Romney is the only one who can beat Obama' (translation: all other votes are wasted) when every poll that matters shows Ron Paul is in the hunt too?
They have the power. They set the rules. Doesn't mean I'm going to follow their rules, and let them say and do whatever they want, and then worry about them crying foul when I don't give them my vote.
"No One But Paul" is a display of intent, and of power. If it gets a reaction, so be it, because it's the truth. Ron Paul doesn't pander, and neither do I.
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PolicyReader
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Yep, these are the facts. Again I don't have a specific stance on the 'tactics' of the issue and really any stance on that front is going to be guess work anyway because "who's on the fence" and "what would push them one way or the other" are both up for debate and neither one have a single answer.
All that being said affa nails it, my vote goes to No One but Paul. Because he's the only one with the voting record to back up his claims (not to mention the only 'major' candidate who's claims I'd support to begin with).
The single largest GOP voting block is ABO because even among those who have other issues most are willing to compromise if it means beating Obama. The only way to court the crossover voters is to have someone who appeals to them, in theory this is why Willard 'could win' because he's close enough to center. But let's be brutally honest for a moment, Romney in both policy and presentation is a pale version of Obama and regardless of whether or not you personally feel the 'diet' version would/could be better it won't inspire crossover in any statistically significant way. Of the GOP on offer only Paul can claim that potential with legitimacy. And then there are the NOBP voters who's votes won't be going to anyone else (even if RP were to endorse someone and/or not run 3rd party if it actually comes to that) and really that's case closed. As affa says
simple math:
ABO + NOBP = Ron Paul
Romney - NOBP = Obama
Gingrich - NOBP = Obama
Will the GOP care more about beating Paul than beating Obama? *shrugs* that's the big question, I guess we'll see.
Right. that is exactly what I said. People are running around bleating NOBP thinking it is a winning strategy to get RP the election. Flat out it is NOT.
PolicyReader
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"You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to GunnyFreedom again."
PolicyReader
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Point of clarity, the last three polls I've seen that actually addressed the issue put Paul, Romney, and Obama in a statistical dead heat.
Meaning that all of their totals (and the difference between them) were within the margin of error.
So that aspect is happening, however when discussing narrative it's important to ask the question "who" because there isn't in function one single narrative there are many, sure a lot of them are shades of grey but those shades can often matter a great deal.
All of which is why I keep saying I have no stance on the tactical value of this as an actual published statement. Because what it does is based off of who is reading it.
For instance most of my politically active social network isn't strongly connected with the GOP or any party often as not hence if *I* were to post this the response would be
"...and what's your point?"
Words and meaning differ based on the context and there isn't one clear right or wrong answer regarding what statements (provided they are honest) to make or not make or how to make them, that's all situational and personal.
Personally I highly agree with the statement I quoted in the OP, but I'm also not reposting it because it wouldn't provide any benefit for me to do so. It might however provide benefit for someone else to do so, or to alter parts, or write their own inspired by the idea but with totally different wording.
One size does not fit all. True in government/law, and true in conversations/persuasion. (also true in protest votes
but I'm more focused on getting the nomination than making plans for "what if" regarding not getting it)2 cents
