How have Kentuckians reacted to all this controversy, from what you know?
From what others are saying, it seems like this isn't a big deal and Rand is still way ahead. But I'm not sure how true this is.
I just moved to Louisville three months ago; I lived in Lexington for ten years previously.
The people in Louisville that I do talk to do not think this is a big deal at all. There's some bias built in there, because most of the people I associate with regularly are fairly conservative. They generally do not trust the MSNBC type media; the "racist" accusation is pretty much like a "Wolf!" cry to them. One comment that stuck with me was "Well they said he's racist...next they'll say he wants to take your Social Security." The biggest talk radio station in the state has been overwhelmingly pro-Rand (Mandy Connell especially).
I have some very liberal family members that I see about every 2-3 months, and I'm sure Rand is going to come up with them. I'll be able to give a better perspective on how damaging the CRA thing is with them once I have those discussions.
I do think Rand has an opportunity to win some moderate voters with school choice. He calls it "the civil rights issue of our time", and he's right (not sure he wants to utter those words much anymore, just so Conman doesn't have an opening). My mother worked in the Jefferson County (Louisville) school system 35 years ago, and it was a problem then. It's still a problem today - busing has not worked. It's more a socio-economic thing than a race thing, IMO, but I would LOVE to see the campaign talk about how important education is for our future.
I could rant about education for a while, actually...the KY state system is messed up. But I won't...at least now.
The most important thing to know about Kentucky politically is that there are really three major classes of voters: Republicans, rural Democrats, and Lexington/Louisville Democrats. Conway cleaned up in Jefferson and Fayette counties, but got worked over in the rural areas. Many of those Democrats will vote for Rand. They hate Obamacare and 2nd Amendment restrictions. The eastern part of the state is going to hate Conway's cap-and-trade stance. The economy of the eastern part of the state is largely based on coal (they call it "King Coal" down here), and cap and trade will absolutely kill them.
I had a job that required me to walk a lot of neighborhoods in the summer of 08 (in Lexington); I saw more Palin yardsigns than McCain or Obama signs combined. Kentucky hated McCain but loved Palin, if that tells you anything about where the state as a whole sits on the "conservative" scale. The only issue where I think Rand might be weak *in the state* is foreign policy, but Conway doesn't fare any better, and it's a non-issue this election cycle.
Rand has zero chance to win over Conway primary voters, but I think he should be favored to take the majority of Mongiardo primary voters. I would predict a 55-45 result for Rand in November.
To sum it up...I do not think the media firestorm hurts Rand much in Kentucky. He kills Conway on healthcare, spending, 2nd amendment rights, abortion, cap-and-trade, and maybe some others I'm leaving out. Conway can't win on issues, and Kentuckians will tire of a smear campaign, especially given how contentious the primaries were.
This was longer than I expected, but it's basically the entirety of my rambling perspective on the race as it stands now.
