I am dying to see another poll

[josh.schisler]

To be honest, I'll be very surprised if the next poll show Rand Paul with a lead of more than 5%.

As I keep reading articles from all kinds of sources, it has become more clear to me that Rand has tanked thanks to last week's implosion. If this wasn't a conservative state like Kentucky, Rand would be finished. I do think he will still see a significant drop, and will probably be polling very close to Conway when the next poll comes out.

I say it is a 50/50 chance of Rand being up in the next poll. Very sad considering the 25% lead that Ras had (I do think it was inflated).

Have any former supporting groups dropped Rand? I don't see where you're drawing this conclusion from. An issue does not affect public opinion just because the media plays it up ... look at polling data around the Lewinsky scandal.

 

[thomas-in-ky]

In my gut, I felt as though Rand could win our county by 30% in the primary. He won by 39%. My gut tells me that this dust up had no effect whatsoever on his lead over Conway in this part of the state. If anything, his numbers will go up due to the exposure. (yes, it could be different in the more populated parts of the state.)

 

[RonPaulFanInGA]

To be honest, I'll be very surprised if the next poll show Rand Paul with a lead of more than 5%.

As I keep reading articles from all kinds of sources, it has become more clear to me that Rand has tanked thanks to last week's implosion. If this wasn't a conservative state like Kentucky, Rand would be finished. I do think he will still see a significant drop, and will probably be polling very close to Conway when the next poll comes out.

So when you're wrong here, and Paul has a double-digit lead, will you at least cut it out with the doom-and-gloom stuff for every little thing in the future?

 

[Harald]

here you go: recent intrade Conway sells @39, Rand Paul bid @64

Contract Bid Ask Last Vol Chge
KY.SENATE2010.DEM
Democratic Party candidate to win M Trade 31.1 39.0 36.5 448 0
KY.SENATE2010.REP
Republican Party candidate to win M Trade 64.1 69.8 64.0 361 0

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/...entucky+(Open+Seat:+Jim+Bunning+-+R+retiring)

 

[aclove]

Fozz sez...

Contract Bid Ask Last Vol Chge
KY.SENATE2010.DEM
Democratic Party candidate to win M Trade 31.1 39.0 36.5 448 0
KY.SENATE2010.REP
Republican Party candidate to win M Trade 64.1 69.8 64.0 361 0

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/...entucky+(Open+Seat:+Jim+Bunning+-+R+retiring)

...phantom numbers!

 

[sailingaway]

...phantom numbers!

The intrade numbers are interesting. It isn't that the media feeding frenzy didn't register, it is just that the feeding frenzy had no legs at all. There was a huge drop (20 pts) on Rands side and a corresponding jump on Conway's side (though it looks like Rand never stopped being the favorite) then trades jumped to ALMOST where they were before.

You have to click on the links for the specific candidates to see it, though.

 

[Inflation]

The intrade numbers are interesting. It isn't that the media feeding frenzy didn't register, it is just that the feeding frenzy had no legs at all. There was a huge drop (20 pts) on Rands side and a corresponding jump on Conway's side (though it looks like Rand never stopped being the favorite) then trades jumped to ALMOST where they were before.

You have to click on the links for the specific candidates to see it, though.

Good catch. Looks like Rand is now a little above pre-gaffe/ambush levels, on very high volume.

I think the insiders know that upcoming polls will show little loss of support for Rand.

Fundraising is back up too. $7500/day, even before today's letter from Dad.