How Ron Paul Wins the Nomination (full nomination schedule, delegate #'s, and analysis)

[newbitech]

I have noticed that some states delegates are bound. Meaning there is no bound for 1 ballot, bound for 2 ballots. Hell, D.C. they are bound UNTIL RELEASED. So unless someone can show me otherwise, what I see is that unless a state delegation has rules that release bound candidates, bound means bound until released.

eg West Virginia. 28 delegates Bound until released is explicit like D.C 16 delegates bound until released.

Wisconsin 39 delegates bound until released OR their bound candidate fails to get 33%

Rhode Island 16 bound until released

Oklahoma 40 delegates bound until released

Mississippi 37 delegates bound until released

quick math,

there are at least 176 delegate right there that won't get released after x number of ballots.

 

[1836]

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[doctorfunk]

Wisconsin's may become unbound earlier than you think. If all 4 candidates go to the convention, it may happen where their candidate does not get 33% on the first ballot.

 

[1836]

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[helmuth_hubener]

A number of state parties with later primaries could also still potentially change their rules, so at this point it is anyone's guess.

Right, especially if Ron Paul supporters are dominant at the State Convention. Then we can change the rules to whatever we like (to an extent).

 

[1836]

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[PolicyReader]

Quick fact check what is that 33% of? Is that derived from the total number of national delegates to the GOP convention? If so it might be worth tracking that threshold as the race unfolds so we can pin when/if any given contender crosses the threshold and thus would be around beyond the first balloting of the convention.

With Romney's operation? Very unlikely.

Even if Santorum were to do about as well as he realistically could do, sweeping most of the south and winning Pennsylvania (unbound delegates, folks) and Texas, Romney would still do well in a few built-in places.

Romney almost certainly wins New York, Connecticut, Massachusetts, California, Oregon, Maryland, D.C., Delaware, Utah, New Jersey, Rhode Island, and Illinois, regardless of how well Santorum is doing (because unless Romney drops out, he will have the money and already has the organization to compete in these places... Santorum will focus on his strengths, as he's done so far). ALL of those states except Massachusetts and Illinois vote after April 1, meaning that they are winner-take-all states.

If Romney won these states here are his "built-in" delegates:

California 169 (+3 "automatic" unbound for party chairman, RNC committee folks)
Connecticut 25 (+3 "automatic"...)
Delaware 17
D.C. 16 (+3 "automatic"...)
Illinois 66 (+3 "automatic"...)
Maryland 37
Massachusetts 38 (+3 "automatic"...)
New Jersey 50
New York 92 (+3 "automatic"...)
Oregon 26 (+3 "automatic"...)
Rhode Island 16 (+3 "automatic"...)
Utah 40

With "automatic" delegates, that's 616 delegates from those states alone, folks. Now granted, Illinois and Massachusetts are both proportional.

Assuming Romney wins 50% of both primaries plus the automatic delegates, he gets 36 from Illinois and 22 from Massachusetts.

Then he has 564 built in delegates, which, given the proportionality for those two states, is a very likely scenario.

Therefore, given that, and the delegates he already has, and the certainty of him winning more delegates in proportional states, the strong likelihood is that Mitt Romney goes to the convention with 800-900 delegates minimum, even in a worst-case-scenario.

Therefore, we should be cheering for Rick Santorum because he will force Mitt to not have the delegates he needs, and make Ron Paul into a kingmaker at the very least, if not an outright convention "compromise candidate," and of course the possibility still exists that we could win the delegates outright.

My mantra this cycle is (short of Paul winning the state outright) a loss for Romney is a win for Paul. There are a lot of reasons for that but in short Mitt has the best chance of all Pauls antecedents to actually secure the delegates prior to convention time.
I also wonder what the needs of the grassroots in Texas and California are because if we could get Paul a break through in those states it would swing things in a very positive way. I know they are a ways off yet post super tuesday but the more that can be done for them early the better.

 

[timreichstein]

California is not winner take all - its proportional by congressional district:

Tuesday 5 June 2012: 169 of 172 of California's delegates to the Republican National Convention are pledged to presidential contenders in today's California Presidential Primary.

159 district delegates are to be bound to presidential contenders based on the primary results in each of the 53 congressional districts: each congressional district is assigned 3 National Convention delegates and the presidential contender receiving the greatest number of votes in that district will receive all 3 of that district's National Convention delegates.
10 at-large delegates (10 base at-large delegates plus 0 bonus delegate) are to be bound to the presidential contender receiving the greatest number of votes in the primary statewide.

 

[ross11988]

Wisconsin's may become unbound earlier than you think. If all 4 candidates go to the convention, it may happen where their candidate does not get 33% on the first ballot.

At this point I seriously doubt Gingrich will go to the convention unless a miracle happens. I wish he could, but he won't.

 

[cindy25]

Wow, really great point! I hadn't thought of that.

or more likely Ron Paul supporters in coalition with other candidates delegates

 

[cindy25]

At this point I seriously doubt Gingrich will go to the convention unless a miracle happens. I wish he could, but he won't.

Mitt might quit before Newt; if he loses MI, and then OH he will drop out. he has a history of dropping out. Newt just got $10 mil from the Zionist so he is in until that money runs out
and if he Newt loses GA that's it

later primaries could be Ron vs Jeb vs Santorum

 

[ross11988]

Mitt might quit before Newt; if he loses MI, and then OH he will drop out. he has a history of dropping out. Newt just got $10 mil from the Zionist so he is in until that money runs out
and if he Newt loses GA that's it

later primaries could be Ron vs Jeb vs Santorum

No way Mitt will drop out, this is totally different ball game then 4 years ago. Mitt had reason to drop out 4 years ago. Mitt has NH, FL, NV, Maine all under his belt. He isn't going anywhere.

Also the Zionist cut Gingrich off, and it was his PAC getting the money not the PCC.

 

[Barrex]

In one sentence: Are we doing better or worse than planed?

P.s.
Gingrich just got another 10 mil from that guy recently.

 

[mmadness]

Bump

 

[1836]

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[PolicyReader]

bump

 

[cindy25]

In one sentence: Are we doing better or worse than planed?

P.s.
Gingrich just got another 10 mil from that guy recently.

and another 100 mil on the way

http://www.forbes.com/sites/stevenb...ve-100m-to-newt-gingrich-or-other-republican/

 

[PolicyReader]

One thing to bear in mind with funding is that PAC /= PCC
So while it does help to have well funded PACs it's quite hard to run a real race if all the money backing you is money you can't spend yourself (or directly comment on the spending of)

 

[1836]

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[PolicyReader]

Things really shaping up, even King said last night that Paul was in 2nd right now.