How Ron Paul Wins the Nomination (full nomination schedule, delegate #'s, and analysis)

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The core concept of sending the brochures was valid---you're criticizing the content, which I already said was flawed. Do we not trust the grassroots also, who came up with most of the innovative ideas that have helped Paul over two campaigns? Both the grassroots and the campaign have made mistakes with direct mail (remembers the expensive mailers of 2008?), cut both sides a break. Sending whatever stock was leftover to the territories was just a suggestion for getting promotional material out the areas in lieu of doing nothing else. If there are more effective methods, please likewise, suggest something.

I'll trust experienced grassroots and the campaign over inexperienced grassroots. There is a difference. Experienced grassroots would have taken a look at what the campaign is already doing (direct-mailing) and would probably have left it to the campaign. A guideline for effective grassroots is to try not to duplicate effort in an area the campaign is already doing, especially with Dr. Paul's experience with direct-mailing. Even if experienced grassroots went against that guideline and wanted to do a brochure, then they would have vetted and field-tested the brochures before even thinking about setting them up to be mass-mailed blind to thousands of registered Republicans. That's why you had coffins, Zeitgeist references and walls of text/poor design.

Please watch this video from someone who is experienced grassroots and hopefully you'll understand:


Also, sending leftover stock of a flawed product that has been shown to lose support to the territories is somehow going to create different results?

I think the best thing for any existing "Super" Brochure holders is to cut up the brochures into multiple panels, and glue the backsides to blank paper so that they can be used as individual mini-handouts. That's not the ideal solution, but would allow you to at least target specific panels of the brochures to people who are concerned about a particular issue.
 
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once Ron Paul wins SOMETHING I predict it will snowball into a nomination, and no amount of last nanosecond rule changing can keep it from happening.

What are you talking about? Wins SOMETHING? He's won delegates, which is what counts. Scoreboard!
 
This whole thread is just taking absolutely best case scenarios, and if ALL of them pan out, it could happen.

That is like saying you could win 10 times in a row playing a single number in roulette.

But mmadness...scoreboard? The scoreboard is not favorable to Ron Pau; at this point. He HASN'T won anything. And no matter how many delegates he gets with 3rd place finishes, it won't be enough. He "won" plenty of delegates in 2008 as well. Didn't matter.

At what point is 3rd place not enough? Because the longer it goes that Romney comes in first and Paul comes in 3rd or 4th, the more Ron Paul would have to win by IF he ever starts winning.

Basketball teams generally don't say "look at the scoreboard" because they have scored 14 points when their opponents have scored 26
 
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This whole thread is just taking absolutely best case scenarios, and if ALL of them pan out, it could happen.

That is like saying you could win 10 times in a row playing a single number in roulette.

But mmadness...scoreboard? The scoreboard is not favorable to Ron Pau; at this point. He HASN'T won anything. And no matter how many delegates he gets with 3rd place finishes, it won't be enough. He "won" plenty of delegates in 2008 as well. Didn't matter.

At what point is 3rd place not enough? Because the longer it goes that Romney comes in first and Paul comes in 3rd or 4th, the more Ron Paul would have to win by IF he ever starts winning.

Basketball teams generally don't say "look at the scoreboard" because they have scored 14 points when their opponents have scored 26
None of which have panned out as we were told, I would add.
 
Won't Paul's delegates be unbound at the convention? How is it that Paul's NV delegate in 2008 ended up voting for McCain?
 
Some delegates are unbound, some are not. Explained in the original post.

I think more folks need to read the OP and stop mixing the perception wins with the delegate wins.

Both matter but they are not interchangeable, in addition to that applying the conventional wisdom to Ron Pauls run or indeed to this campaign cycle in general is already provably false (new rules, new records, 50% delegate states, etc.)

To sum my point up rather than reiterating it; A) OP is good, read it B) if your version of "realism" is to insist that Paul essentially has no chance of winning in 2012 please exit grassroots central because that attitude (yes even if you support it with links etc, yes even if you "prove" it is factually true) is not constructive to the 2012 grassroots effort hence posting here with that attitude is off topic. There are plenty of other parts of the forum use them.
 
I think more folks need to read the OP and stop mixing the perception wins with the delegate wins.

Both matter but they are not interchangeable, in addition to that applying the conventional wisdom to Ron Pauls run or indeed to this campaign cycle in general is already provably false (new rules, new records, 50% delegate states, etc.)

To sum my point up rather than reiterating it; A) OP is good, read it B) if your version of "realism" is to insist that Paul essentially has no chance of winning in 2012 please exit grassroots central because that attitude (yes even if you support it with links etc, yes even if you "prove" it is factually true) is not constructive to the 2012 grassroots effort hence posting here with that attitude is off topic. There are plenty of other parts of the forum use them.

So, based on the 'delegate map' of the primary race provided by the OP, WHERE ARE WE?

The first critical states listed were Maine, Minnesota and Colorado. Projected vote % and delegate (Pledged or Unpledged) gains:

Maine-- up to 50%, 12 delegates, P; Minnesota-- up to 30 delegates, U; Colorado-- 33%+, 12-18 delegates, U

2/7, Current Results:

Maine-- (PENDING); Minnesota--27% (2nd), maybe 15 delegates, U; Colorado-- 12%, maybe 5 delegates, U
Missouri--IRRELEVANT (no delegates, not a critical state)

Colorado is the low performer here, but decent, Minn. is also solid, Maine still looks very promising. We are approximately on track, delegate wise. The complaints are mostly coming from those who want us to finish FIRST somewhere as the primary key ingredient of success, and to sustain momentum. That latter consideration or sentiment has merit in my view, but the main point is that from a delegate standpoint, we're in OK shape.
 
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I'm a bit tired so I haven't re-run the math but this looks pretty on target to me. The difficulty with figuring out where we stand (considering our delegate/caucus focus) is that the national delegates aren't assigned until well after the fact so pop vote leads to precinct delegate selection (sort of) and then there are the several layers of delegates being elected to move up until eventually national convention delegates are selected. Right now the caucus states stand at the following

January 3, 2012
Iowa (State Convention: Saturday 16 June)

February 4, 2012
Nevada 28 total delegates

February 4–11, 2012
Maine (State Convention: Sunday 6 May 2012)

February 7, 2012
Colorado (State Convention: Saturday 14 April)
Minnesota (State Convention: Saturday 5 May 2012)


So even in the case of the bound delegate states we won't actually know where delegates stand until the state conventions listed. Now someone correct me if I'm wrong but it's my understanding that the above 'local delegates elect national delegates' applies even in the bound states, and thus even in those contests the outcome isn't directly bound to the pop vote (esp when considering someone being awarded delegates and then dropping, but that's another matter again :P ).

So in the end I'd say yes, while doing better would always be nice ;) we're in ok shape delegate wise as it currently stands.
 
RON PAUL WINNING THE BATTLE FOR DELEGATES
CAMPAIGN IS WELL-POSITIONED IN DELEGATE RACE

LAKE JACKSON, Texas – The Ron Paul 2012 Presidential campaign released the following statement regarding the results of yesterday’s election results. See comments below from Ron Paul 2012 National Campaign Manager John Tate.
“We are thrilled with the yesterday’s results. Our campaign to Restore America continues to gain ground, and we are poised to pick up even more delegates from Minnesota and Colorado adding to our delegates in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada.

“As people across the country view the results of yesterday’s contests, it is important to consider a few facts that have not been clearly reported. Not one single delegate was awarded yesterday, instead the caucuses in Minnesota and Colorado were the very first step in the delegate selection process. And there are still over 40 states left to go. The Ron Paul campaign plans to continue to vie for delegates nationwide.

“There are a few significant takeaways from yesterday’s contests to remember:

1) The Missouri primary means nothing. It was a non-binding beauty contest, and the contest that matters in the ‘show me’ state won’t take place for another month. The Ron Paul campaign is well positioned to win delegates in Missouri’s caucus a month from now.

2) As in Iowa where not 1 of the 28 delegates has been awarded yet, in Colorado and Nevada the Paul campaign will do very well in the state delegate counts. We will have good numbers among the actual delegates awarded, far exceeding our straw poll numbers.

3) In Minnesota where we have finished a solid second, we also have a strong majority of the state convention delegates, and the process to elect delegates has also just begun, the Paul campaign is well-organized to win the bulk of delegates there.

“We are confident in gaining a much larger share of delegates than even our impressive showing yesterday indicates. As an example of our campaign’s delegate strength, take a look at what has occurred in Colorado:

In one precinct in Larimer County, the straw poll vote was 23 for Santorum, 13 for Paul, 5 for Romney, 2 for Gingrich. There were 13 delegate slots, and Ron Paul got ALL 13.

In a precinct in Delta County the vote was 22 for Santorum, 12 for Romney, 8 for Paul, 7 for Gingrich. There were 5 delegate slots, and ALL 5 went to Ron Paul.

In a Pueblo County precinct, the vote was 16 for Santorum, 11 for Romney, 3 for Gingrich and 2 for Paul. There were 2 delegate slots filled, and both were filled by Ron Paul supporters.

We are also seeing the same trends in Minnesota, Nevada, and Iowa, and in Missouri as well.

“We may well win Minnesota, and do far better in Colorado than yesterday’s polls indicate.

“In the latest national poll from Reuters/Ipsos Poll, Ron Paul places a strong second with 21 percent, gaining ground on his main competitor nationally, Mitt Romney, whose support seems to be fading at 29 percent. Congressman Paul’s support has grown by 5 percentage points nationally since January, while Romney has seen a 30 percent decline in his support since January.

“This poll follows a January 30th Gallup Poll showing Dr. Paul within the margin of error of defeating Obama. Also, a January 16th CNN/ORC Poll showed Congressman Paul and Obama in a virtual tie in a general election showdown.

“Yesterday’s contests were significant, but not a decisive or a conclusive end to this race. Our campaign will keep pushing forward and continue to take our message of liberty all the way to the convention. This race after all is about delegates, not about beauty contests.”

hmmmmmm!!!!!
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/02/08/santorum-jumps-into-second-place-in-delegate-race/
 
NPR said:
For now, despite his rough night, the NPR tracker shows Mitt Romney leading with 73 delegates; Newt Gingrich in second with 29; Ron Paul in third place with 8; and Tuesday's big winner, Rick Santorum, in last place with 3 delegates. All have a long way to go to get to 1,144, the number needed to secure the GOP nomination.
http://www.kunc.org/post/counting-gop-delegates-not-theyre-official

Those are the actual delegate totals as of today. Paul is well positioned to take a lot of the yet to be assigned caucus delegates and every news source I've seen outside of NPR is in essence guessing and then posting their guesses as "how things are". Any news agency that is reporting Santorum at more than 3 delegates isn't using hard numbers don't trust their guesses they are biased.
 
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