Discouraging new poll

[minuteman76]

The important thing is that there are potential RP voters out there who need to be turned into actual RP voters.

Go out and make that happen today.

 

[erowe1]

Why don't we just go outside and poll average joes from all ages, take a proportional average from each state (RPF members) and report back with details/statistics.

I don't think polling average joes would be much use. But you might be onto a good idea. We could get a bunch of volunteers to do our own poll of registered Republican voters. It would have to be organized and controlled well. But it probably wouldn't be too hard to get 30 volunteers to poll 30 people each.

 

[NJames]

Does anyone here have the necessary polling experience to conduct a statistically sound poll? That would be pretty cool.

 

[harikaried]

What's with the interest to run our own polls? To see if we're really behind and need to push local activism? To see if we're still behind Perry and need to push local activism? To see if we're #1 right now and still need to push local activism?

Do people just want a nice number to pat themselves on the back for sitting at their computer?

 

[erowe1]

What's with the interest to run our own polls? To see if we're really behind and need to push local activism? To see if we're still behind Perry and need to push local activism? To see if we're #1 right now and still need to push local activism?

Do people just want a nice number to pat themselves on the back for sitting at their computer?

Those who don't see the benefit of it would not have to participate of course.

But there are reasons that campaigns spend big bucks to run their own polls.

 

[michaelkellenger]

This poll was perfectly legitimate three weeks ago, now it isn't? Amazing.....you've guys got to be kidding me.

 

[harikaried]

But there are reasons that campaigns spend big bucks to run their own polls.

Sure, but I have yet to see a good reason for the grassroots to run its own national poll or pay for a polling company to run it. Money could be better spent elsewhere as companies like Gallup and Rasmussen are going to run polls anyway.

 

[erowe1]

This poll was perfectly legitimate three weeks ago, now it isn't? Amazing.....you've guys got to be kidding me.

Somebody said that a poll that was done of all adults was legitimate 3 weeks ago?

I know I didn't say that.

 

[erowe1]

Sure, but I have yet to see a good reason for the grassroots to run its own national poll or pay for a polling company to run it. Money could be better spent elsewhere as companies like Gallup and Rasmussen are going to run polls anyway.

I can think of ways that a specially-made poll could be very useful to us.

 

[realtonygoodwin]

This poll was perfectly legitimate three weeks ago, now it isn't? Amazing.....you've guys got to be kidding me.

Agreed. When this same poll showed Ron at 12% a few weeks ago, I didn't see people complaining then.

 

[erowe1]

Agreed. When this same poll showed Ron at 12% a few weeks ago, I didn't see people complaining then.

Can you find that thread? A poll of all adults was as worthless three weeks ago as it is today no matter what the results are.

 

[harikaried]

8/11: http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2011/images/08/11/gop2012poll.pdf
8/29: http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2011/images/08/29/130.poll.pdf

 

[Agorism]

New polls normally come out on Wed (although occasionally Thursday.)

So only 2 days and we'll get better polls I hope.


ps- didn't we figure out that Palin hurt us more than any other candidate...not sure why though, and she's in this plll.

 

[malkusm]

Guys, please be wary of trusting any poll from CNN that is such an outlier, unless it has a reputable independent polling company putting its name on it.

HERE is a CNN poll from June 3-6 -- it was just as fishy. It took Ron down from 7% (he had previously polled 12% two weeks prior). It had Giuliani at 12% (when no one was polling Giuliani). They polled only people in the "South" region, and only people in "Suburban" households, and only people 50 and older, in their Republican sample: http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2011/images/06/14/rel10f.pdf

 

[Havax]

This poll just destroyed my chances of winning over my grandfather who repeatedly stated that "Ron Paul can't win" and saw this poll come up on TV. This was after me talking to him for 20 minutes about how he's in 3rd. He refuses to believe he's anywhere close to even 3rd now.

 

[malkusm]

Note -- the polling company for the most recent poll, Opinion Research Corporation, is the same company that put out the fishy poll that I link to in the post above this one.

 

[malkusm]

Guys, look at the crosstabs in the most recent poll. Same as the one dated June 3-6. All of their Republicans are from the "South" region and in "Suburban" households. They did poll a few individuals under the age of 50, at least. But from a sampling perspective, this poll is absolute garbage, as was the poll dated June 3-6.

 

[malkusm]

Sorry, I don't usually use bold font for everything, but this seemed important.

Note that it's not that ALL respondents came from suburban households, nor did they all come from the South region -- the total percentages are different. However, a vast majority of respondents did fit those criteria, to the point that results on other demographics had statistically insignificant sample sizes. Probably 70% or more of respondents were from suburban households in the South, by my estimate. Note that when a legitimate polling company does a poll with crosstabs listed (like PPP for example), you'll never see an "N/A" in a region, because the sample is properly stratified to include all regions in a relatively balanced manner, to be reflective of the actual voting population.

Additionally, note that in both of the polls (June 3-6 and the recent poll), Ron polls HIGHER in the cross-tab of the South region than he does overall by 3-4%. Combining this with the fact that all other regions are statistically insignificant in the sample, Ron would have to get literally close to 0% in all of the regions that were listed as "N/A" in the cross-tabs -- a near-impossibility, considering that he has consistently polled between 9 and 13% nationally for some time now.

 

[Feeding the Abscess]

There's a base of about 8 to 12% who are like us; hardcore supporters who aren't going anywhere. Some of his other support is lukewarm, and can be eaten into by Parry, etc. The focus shouldn't be on garnering those votes; it should be on growing the base. The lukewarm supporters will follow.

It's one poll, and Parry hasn't been thoroughly vetted yet. It'll happen. Not to mention, a 6% poll is within the margin of error of our hardcore base support.

EDIT: what malkusm provided is also pretty important to note.

 

[whoisjohngalt]

what matt said