Discouraging new poll

[CaseyJones]

whoa matt you are right ... that is messed up

 

[yoshimaroka]

Can the name of the Title be edited to "old useless poll"? :-D

 

[Brett85]

It's not just this poll. The majority of polls that have come out since the debate show Ron losing a lot of ground. As I've said before, Ron has to realize that he's trying to win over conservative Republicans, and he has to phrase his message in a way that wins them over. Coming across like Dennis Kucinich in the debates isn't going to help him do that. He really needs to make Rand his debate coach.

 

[cero]

It's not just this poll. The majority of polls that have come out since the debate show Ron losing a lot of ground. As I've said before, Ron has to realize that he's trying to win over conservative Republicans, and he has to phrase his message in a way that wins them over. Coming across like Dennis Kucinich in the debates isn't going to help him do that. He really needs to make Rand his debate coach.

read what Malk posted

 

[Brett85]

read what Malk posted

I did. But he called PPP a legitimate polling organization, and they had Ron at 6% as well. It's not just this poll that has Ron losing ground. Rather than taking apart polls that show Ron losing ground, we need to work harder to get people on the ground in Iowa and elsewhere. And Ron needs to work hard at completely revamping the way he presents his message to GOP audiences.

 

[wstrucke]

This poll was perfectly legitimate three weeks ago, now it isn't? Amazing.....you've guys got to be kidding me.

There are a lot of people around here who always look on the bright side of the bright side. It was the same in 2008. Any good news means "we're winning!" and any bad news means "don't worry, we're winning!" You have to cut through the crap sometimes to get an idea of what's really going on.

 

[Jeremy Tyler]

Yeah I remember during the Rand Paul campaign he was polling a lot higher with most other polling companies but CNN always had him lower because of their funky polling..always polling just registered adults instead of likely voters.

 

[eleganz]

What's with the interest to run our own polls? To see if we're really behind and need to push local activism? To see if we're still behind Perry and need to push local activism? To see if we're #1 right now and still need to push local activism?

Do people just want a nice number to pat themselves on the back for sitting at their computer?

Personally? No I don't want a nice number just to pat myself on the back. Somebody suggested to pay a third party (unbiased) polling company to do the work and my suggestion was that we could do it ourselves, it would be based on an honor system of course.

This is a sort of check on the current polling companies, it wouldn't hurt or cost any money for some of us to go out and ask likely voters on their opinions. So what does this have to do with you? are you here to put down grassroots ideas to pat yourself on the back?

 

[wstrucke]

I like most of you, but as a whole I wouldn't trust any poll results by the members of these forums.

 

[malkusm]

I like most of you, but as a whole I wouldn't trust any poll results by the members of these forums.

I have a degree in Statistics, and I'll be posting something shortly that doesn't give this poll a leg to stand on.

 

[Brett85]

I have a degree in Statistics, and I'll be posting something shortly that doesn't give this poll a leg to stand on.

What about the PPP poll that had Ron at 6% nationally? Did that have some flaws in it as well?

 

[malkusm]

What about the PPP poll that had Ron at 6% nationally? Did that have some flaws in it as well?

I haven't looked at the PPP poll, so I can't comment on its validity -- although, yes, it's suspicious that PPP has shown Ron going from 12%, to 9%, to 7%, and now to 6%, in a time period when all other major pollsters have shown his take of the vote increasing. Remember that PPP is the same polling company that has a contractual obligation with Daily Kos, and the same polling company that showed Rand Paul in a dead heat with Jack Conway last summer.

But, my critique of this CNN/ORC poll is far more scientific and substantive.

 

[JoshLowry]

PPP lost their legitimacy with this poll.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/08/obama-leads-in-wisconsin-iowa.html

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_IAWI_0824.pdf

They include both Palin and Cain but excluded Paul when it comes to VS Obama.

It's late August.

ಠ_ಠ

 

[boneyard bill]

That's the way it's been all primary season. Ron Paul has been up and down. The important thing is that he has been trending upward. That hasn't been true of Gingrich, Cain, or Pawlenty who were once being highly touted. For that matter, is isn't true of Palin, Bachmann, or Romney either. Rick Perry is the latest hare in this contest, but Ron Paul is the tortoise and we know who won that race.

 

[malkusm]

Here's my breakdown: http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showth...arch-Center%94-%97-The-Numbers-Don%92t-Add-Up

 

[YumYum]

How come we don't do our own poll?

 

[Eric21ND]

How come we don't do our own poll?

If DailyKos can run their own polling we should be able to fund our own polls as well.

 

[PaulConventionWV]

There are a lot of people around here who always look on the bright side of the bright side. It was the same in 2008. Any good news means "we're winning!" and any bad news means "don't worry, we're winning!" You have to cut through the crap sometimes to get an idea of what's really going on.

The poll was garbage, dude. Malk just proved that. Ron has been polling consistently over 10%, and you're telling me about half of his constituents just jumped ship in the last week? It's pretty easy to see that this is a straw man. They made this garbage so that they could put it on TV and make it a self-fulfilling prophecy. We have to fight against that.

 

[PaulConventionWV]

Personally? No I don't want a nice number just to pat myself on the back. Somebody suggested to pay a third party (unbiased) polling company to do the work and my suggestion was that we could do it ourselves, it would be based on an honor system of course.

This is a sort of check on the current polling companies, it wouldn't hurt or cost any money for some of us to go out and ask likely voters on their opinions. So what does this have to do with you? are you here to put down grassroots ideas to pat yourself on the back?

You've obviously never taken a statistics course. The methodology has to be flawless, or else the poll is trash. That takes money and resources. You can't just walk outside in your hometown and expect to get an accurate sample for the whole nation.