Discouraging new poll

[AggieforPaul]

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2011/images/08/29/130.poll.pdf

Dont even care to post the results, but Paul comes in at 6%, behind Gingrich. At the start of the month, he was 12% in the same poll. This puts him behind Bachmann again in the RCP average.

 

[CaptUSA]

This poll is garbage. There's nothing to gain from this data. I mean you can't tell anything...

I think this is a BS poll put out just to be included in the RCP average.

 

[ProfNo]

This is not good. There have been a couple of polls out recently with 6%.

Last time we made the mistake of ignoring the polls. We can't make that mistake this time. We need to determine if we really are polling this low, and if so do something about it.

 

[harikaried]

National polls include all states people. We need to get the word out even outside of the early states. Join your local meetup groups. Do some tabling. Or even just sign wave.

 

[NJames]

Disturbing.

Why are the 18-34 and 35-50 age brackets listed as N/A ? Am I right in thinking that this poll was overwhelming of American 50 years and older?

EDIT: No that doesn't make sense. They must not have differentiated between those under 50 categories.

 

[RDM]

We need more nationally televised debates. I believe if RP does well or even hits it out of the park, these poll numbers go up. Also, most regular people do not even begin to seriously think about politics until after Labor Day. Don't let these early polls bring you down, but do take them seriously to prove everyone's efforts to get the word out is not done.

 

[Inkblots]

This is statistical noise. There will always be outliers both on the high and low side: sometimes Dr. Paul will get 14%, sometimes 6%, but in reality he's somewhere right around 10% nationally, which is exactly where he needs to be at this point. It keeps him in the mix as a major candidate in a crowded field, ensures that he'll clear any polling requirements for participating in the televised debates, and will allow him to credibly fund-raise nationally to focus on the early caucus and primary states, where he's easily outperforming his national numbers right now.

Also, I expect Paul's national support to increase when Palin fails to jump into the race and Perry has what I expect to be a poor debate performance next week.

 

[Dlynne]

Someone on this forum raised the idea of RP doing his own polling, or perhaps some supporters getting together to hire a professional pollster. I would love to know why Paul is only polling at 6%, that is, what issues are the great obstacles to Paul's camapign. Or, perhaps, if the respondents even know about Paul.

 

[Harald]

They seemed to only poll South.

North Mid- Sub-
Total east west South West Urban urban Rural
----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
Renominate Obama 72% N/A N/A 71% N/A 76% 72% N/A
Different candidate 27% N/A N/A 25% N/A 21% 28% N/A
No opinion 1% N/A N/A 3% N/A 3% 1% N/A

 

[harikaried]

They seemed to only poll South

I think they just don't have enough data to break it down, but that's how they reported the demographics for the previous poll where Ron Paul received 12%.

I don't disagree that the general average is probably closer to 10% than 6%, but we need to be doing local activism and not just sit behind our computers and hope the campaign does better at debates, etc.

 

[libertythor]

Young voters are more likely to participate in elections in the upper midwest than in the rest of the nation. Also, Iowa is a caucus state.

For the rest of the nation, we need to be focusing on the 35+ group but without ignoring the under 35 group.

Disturbing.

Why are the 18-34 and 35-50 age brackets listed as N/A ? Am I right in thinking that this poll was overwhelming of American 50 years and older?

EDIT: No that doesn't make sense. They must not have differentiated between those under 50 categories.

 

[PaulConventionWV]

There's no way this is for real. Like I said about the other poll that had him at 6%, Ron Paul doesn't just lose half his voters in a week. That makes no sense. This is suggesting that he can go from 14% to 6% just from statistical error. If that's the case, then nobody should put much stock in these polls. However, if this is suggesting that Dr. Paul lost support since the last poll, then it means that over half of Ron's base supporters simply abandoned ship for no discernible reason. We all know that is not possible. Either way, there is something fishy about these polls. Ron Paul has far surpassed this number so many times, and yet we are supposed to believe he can revert back to ~5% in a couple of weeks? No friggin way.

 

[kahless]

Absolutely amazing that CNN would poll for a non-candidate like Giuliani who had very little support in 2008. I can see why they would do Palin, but Giuliani, really CNN.

 

[harikaried]

Statistical noise doesn't mean we shouldn't be doing local activism. A bad polling day for Romney is still better than Paul's best day. We have a lot of work to do to inform people of Ron Paul. There are even supporters that don't even know Ron Paul is running again in 2012! That's easy support that just needs to be reminded to also help spread the word.

 

[Epic]

So, RP goes from 12% to 6% in just a couple weeks?

And Gallup had him at 13%?

Just so weird how much these things move around.

Edit: and Gary Johnson at 2%, I think I read at Politico.

 

[erowe1]

This poll is all adults, right?

If so, it's totally different from a poll of registered voters or likely voters. Polls of all adults mean nothing.

 

[NJames]

I think statistically Paul polled at 1.5% - 10.5%, given a +/- 4.5% margin of error.

 

[rich34]

Anyone remember some of the polling "tactics" some of the polling firms used last time? I can remember listening to about 4 or 5 different people who posted what their answering machine recorded and imo there that could have affected the polling results. Not sure if they've started this again, but it could certainly explain the sudden drop in polling. It's unfortunate, but polling numbers do affect how people vote. Everyone wants to vote for the winner..

 

[Esoteric]

Ok, I don't care if I'm called a conspiracy theorist, but I theorize that these polls are manipulated. If they constantly get away with manipulating Paul in the single digits, that becomes the perceived political reality. This may be the last trick in their bag.

 

[eleganz]

Why don't we just go outside and poll average joes from all ages, take a proportional average from each state (RPF members) and report back with details/statistics.