Despite the latest polls i think reps will do well in November

[helenpaul]

First, here is Biden's approval today on Rasmussen. Im using Rasmussen because its been the most consistent and has been a little more favorable toward biden than other polls, even liberal ones like CBS.

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/biden_administration/prez_track_aug17

Biden is at 42/57 right now.

Here is Trump's approval for the mid-terms of 2018. You will have to scroll down a bit. At this time in Aug he was 48/51. Far better than Biden. On Nov 05 2018 Trump was actually 50/49. Even so republicans lost 41 house seats. Biden is far worse off now. History alone says dems will suffer many defeats.
https://www.rasmussenreports.com/pu...p_administration/trump_approval_index_history


I predict reps gain 39 house seats, 1 senate seat, and 4 governors seats.

 

[Anti Globalist]

Still sticking with my prediction Republicans will take back the House. The Democrats will keep the Senate.

 

[helenpaul]

The reps have nominated a few questionable senate candidates. We cant know what will happen between now and Nov but if they indict Trump i think that would actually help republicans.

 

[PAF]

Well, Mr. Mike Kelly (R) was supposed to step down last round, but he was voted back in. The folks here love-love-love the guy and won't hear about replacing him with somebody better.

His latest house votes were to keep us IN NATO (H. Res. 831), voted YES on Ukraine Aid (H.R. 7691), voted FOR North and West Africa Interventionism (H.R. 567), voted YES on Global Health Security Strategy (H.R. 391), voted AGAINST Iraq AUMF Repeal (H.R. 256), voted YES on Juneteenth Federal Holiday (S. 475)...

And they want Mr. Mike to stay in the house.

Oh, and when I showed them Mike Kelly On the Record, they balled them up and threw them straight into the trash.

 

[Anti Federalist]

Ohio Flips: 1st Poll Post Mar-a-Lago Raid Shows J.D. Vance, Republicans Have Overtaken Democrats

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/...d-vance-republicans-have-overtaken-democrats/

JACOB BLISS17 Aug 2022Washington, DC2,713
2:36
In the first poll since the unprecedented Mar-a-Lago raid, Emerson College Polling showed that J.D. Vance, the Trump-backed Republican nominee for Ohio’s open U.S. Senate seat, and Republicans had overtaken Democrats in the Buckeye State.

Vance leads Ryan by three points in the most recent Emerson College poll. The poll found that 45 percent of the 925 general election voters would vote for Vance over the 42 percent who would vote for Ryan. There were also four percent who said someone else, and ten percent were undecided.

In fact, when the voters were asked, “regardless of whom they support, which candidate they expect to win,” a majority of the respondents (52 percent) said Vance would win, compared to the 48 percent who said Ryan.

Executive Director of Emerson College polling Spencer Kimball said:

Both Vance and Ryan have strong bases of support, and the race tightens to a one-point lead for Vance among the very motivated and very likely voters in Ohio. Whereas Vance leads by a larger margin among somewhat likely and somewhat motivated voters.

Republicans also lead with double digits on the generic congressional ballot.

The Republicans on the Ohio generic congressional ballot hold a ten point lead over the Democrats, 51 percent to 41 percent. There was also eight percent undecided.

In Ohio, President Joe Biden has an approval rating of only 39 percent and a 56 percent disapproval.

In a hypothetical 2024 poll between Biden and former President Donald Trump, the former president leads with a majority of the vote with 53 percent compared to the 39 percent who would vote for Biden.

This comes after the recent FBI search of Mar-a-Lago, which showed that 39 percent of Ohio voters are “more likely” to support Trump if he runs for president in 2024. This is compared to only 35 percent who said the raid made them “less likely” to support Trump and the 27 percent who said the raid “makes no difference” in who they would vote for.

The Emerson College poll was conducted from August 15 to 16 and asked 925 somewhat and very likely general election voters. The poll also had a margin of error of 3.2 percent.

 

[Anti Federalist]

James Carville: ‘Majority’ of GOP Voters ‘Really Stupid’ Evil Racists

https://www.breitbart.com/clips/202...ity-of-gop-voters-really-stupid-evil-racists/

PAM KEY 17 Aug 2022

Democratic consultant and political commentator James Carville said in an interview with The Hill TV that the “majority” of Republican voters are “stupid” and “evil.”

Discussing the brand of the Democratic Party, Carville said, “So much of what has happened to my party is we tend to get defined by some over-educated, totally doofus coastal elites that are out trying to write dictionaries or something unrelated to anybody’s life. And that kind of stuff has a tendency to be very sticky, to stick with people. It is not who the party is. They are a very small part of the Democratic Party.”

He continued, “These people have the ability to irritate. They have the ability to come up with really stupid things, like ‘Defund the Police,’ the three worst words ever in the English language, maybe. And you know, ‘Let’s get rid of Abraham Lincoln.’ That takes a really smart person to come up with that. So we pay while a huge majorities of the Republican Party don’t believe in evolution. Alright, huge majorities of the Republican Party followed Donald Trump. But somehow or another, we pay a greater price for 11% of our people than they do for 65% of their people.”

He added, “People that believe that the election was stolen and have a right to storm the Capitol, which is a substantial number of people in the Republican Party, are evil. Our people are kind of silly. Their people are actually evil. Racism is evil. Alright. Misogyny is evil. I’m sorry. A pronoun is, to me is, ok, fine. I mean, it’s kind of like, you know, if you want to be a vegan, I don’t care. Eat what you want to eat. All right? But but that’s not. That’s not the same thing. It is not, yet the media is addicted to both-sidesism.”

Carville concluded, “The problem the Republican Party has is they got really stupid people that vote in their primaries. And when you have that, you’re going to get in – really stupid people demand to have really stupid leaders. And that’s where the Republican Party is now. It’s not, you know, not all of it. There’s obviously some very high quality, you know, smart, patriotic Republicans. But they’re not in the majority. And they will tell you that themselves.”

 

[helenpaul]

Ohio Flips: 1st Poll Post Mar-a-Lago Raid Shows J.D. Vance, Republicans Have Overtaken Democrats

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/...d-vance-republicans-have-overtaken-democrats/

JACOB BLISS17 Aug 2022Washington, DC2,713
2:36
In the first poll since the unprecedented Mar-a-Lago raid, Emerson College Polling showed that J.D. Vance, the Trump-backed Republican nominee for Ohio’s open U.S. Senate seat, and Republicans had overtaken Democrats in the Buckeye State.

Vance leads Ryan by three points in the most recent Emerson College poll. The poll found that 45 percent of the 925 general election voters would vote for Vance over the 42 percent who would vote for Ryan. There were also four percent who said someone else, and ten percent were undecided.

In fact, when the voters were asked, “regardless of whom they support, which candidate they expect to win,” a majority of the respondents (52 percent) said Vance would win, compared to the 48 percent who said Ryan.

Executive Director of Emerson College polling Spencer Kimball said:

Both Vance and Ryan have strong bases of support, and the race tightens to a one-point lead for Vance among the very motivated and very likely voters in Ohio. Whereas Vance leads by a larger margin among somewhat likely and somewhat motivated voters.

Republicans also lead with double digits on the generic congressional ballot.

The Republicans on the Ohio generic congressional ballot hold a ten point lead over the Democrats, 51 percent to 41 percent. There was also eight percent undecided.

In Ohio, President Joe Biden has an approval rating of only 39 percent and a 56 percent disapproval.

In a hypothetical 2024 poll between Biden and former President Donald Trump, the former president leads with a majority of the vote with 53 percent compared to the 39 percent who would vote for Biden.

This comes after the recent FBI search of Mar-a-Lago, which showed that 39 percent of Ohio voters are “more likely” to support Trump if he runs for president in 2024. This is compared to only 35 percent who said the raid made them “less likely” to support Trump and the 27 percent who said the raid “makes no difference” in who they would vote for.

The Emerson College poll was conducted from August 15 to 16 and asked 925 somewhat and very likely general election voters. The poll also had a margin of error of 3.2 percent.

I never thought Ohio was going to elect a democrat with Biden having his midterm election. It made no sense.

 

[helenpaul]

James Carville: ‘Majority’ of GOP Voters ‘Really Stupid’ Evil Racists

https://www.breitbart.com/clips/202...ity-of-gop-voters-really-stupid-evil-racists/

PAM KEY 17 Aug 2022

Democratic consultant and political commentator James Carville said in an interview with The Hill TV that the “majority” of Republican voters are “stupid” and “evil.”

Discussing the brand of the Democratic Party, Carville said, “So much of what has happened to my party is we tend to get defined by some over-educated, totally doofus coastal elites that are out trying to write dictionaries or something unrelated to anybody’s life. And that kind of stuff has a tendency to be very sticky, to stick with people. It is not who the party is. They are a very small part of the Democratic Party.”

He continued, “These people have the ability to irritate. They have the ability to come up with really stupid things, like ‘Defund the Police,’ the three worst words ever in the English language, maybe. And you know, ‘Let’s get rid of Abraham Lincoln.’ That takes a really smart person to come up with that. So we pay while a huge majorities of the Republican Party don’t believe in evolution. Alright, huge majorities of the Republican Party followed Donald Trump. But somehow or another, we pay a greater price for 11% of our people than they do for 65% of their people.”

He added, “People that believe that the election was stolen and have a right to storm the Capitol, which is a substantial number of people in the Republican Party, are evil. Our people are kind of silly. Their people are actually evil. Racism is evil. Alright. Misogyny is evil. I’m sorry. A pronoun is, to me is, ok, fine. I mean, it’s kind of like, you know, if you want to be a vegan, I don’t care. Eat what you want to eat. All right? But but that’s not. That’s not the same thing. It is not, yet the media is addicted to both-sidesism.”

Carville concluded, “The problem the Republican Party has is they got really stupid people that vote in their primaries. And when you have that, you’re going to get in – really stupid people demand to have really stupid leaders. And that’s where the Republican Party is now. It’s not, you know, not all of it. There’s obviously some very high quality, you know, smart, patriotic Republicans. But they’re not in the majority. And they will tell you that themselves.”

The stupid part may be a bit accurate. Too many times reps nominate unelectable candidates.

 

[Occam's Banana]

James Carville: ‘Majority’ of GOP Voters ‘Really Stupid’ Evil Racists

James Carville:

“So much of what has happened to my party is we tend to get defined by some over-educated [...] elites [who are going on about] something unrelated to anybody’s life. [...]"

Also James Carville:

"[...] huge majorities of the Republican Party don’t believe in evolution [... T]hey got really stupid people [...]"

 

[showpan]

I see Republicans taking both the House and the Senate. The Democrats have bitten their own foot off and a lot of Dems are turning on them. They think that millions of immigrants are going to save their seats but that isn't going to happen either...lol....most of the immigrants I have talked to aren't voting democrat.

 

[acptulsa]

I see Republicans taking both the House and the Senate.

It is the one seemingly unshakable rule of American politics that the party that flushes the economy down the toilet pays for it in the next election.

Of course, that was back when they were so sure neither party would nominate an honest candidate that they felt no need to blatantly monkey with the vote. Now they're playing such psyops that the swinging of the two party pendulum is part of the manipulation.

 

[helenpaul]

Will be tough to get to 51 for reps but its possible.

 

[Anti Federalist]

Will be tough to get to 51 for reps but its possible.

 

[Anti Federalist]

The stupid part may be a bit accurate. Too many times reps nominate unelectable candidates.

Even though I posted it and think that Carlson has some valid points, that's not the reason the GOP is faring so poorly in what should be a "slam dunk" election.

This is Roe fallout...and the GOP will not address it or own it...their plan is to sweep it under the rug and hope it goes away.

 

[CaptUSA]

Even though I posted it and think that Carlson has some valid points, that's not the reason the GOP is faring so poorly in what should be a "slam dunk" election.

This is Roe fallout...and the GOP will not address it or own it...their plan is to sweep it under the rug and hope it goes away.

Well, I think that's part of it. But they could reframe that issue if they wanted to. A majority of people think those decisions should not be made at the federal level and that different states should be allowed to set their own limitations based on local preferences. So, even on that issue, the question is why do we not see a reframing of issues?? Why are we ignoring the lockdown massacres?? The Covid regime??! The social issues where the D's are out of step with the majority of the population??

I think the reason is party control. Like always. We saw it after the "Contract with America". After the "Tea Party". After the Ron Paul movement. The RNC is happy to use that fervor for leverage, but it doesn't want those people to threaten their control. They would like nothing more than to watch these Trump-endorsed candidates fall on their faces. "see what happens when you primary us, folks?!! You NEED us!!" And if the Dem candidates win, no biggie. Their policies will drive future fundraising.

I think Tucker is close to putting his finger on it. But he'll go the way of Glenn Beck - either after this election cycle or the next.

 

[nobody's_hero]

They would like nothing more than to watch these Trump-endorsed candidates fall on their faces. "see what happens when you primary us, folks?!! You NEED us!!" And if the Dem candidates win, no biggie.

They've been doing that since the Rockefeller-ites abandoned Goldwater supporters several decades ago. (not saying Trump is anywhere near Goldwater)

 

[nobody's_hero]

Even though I posted it and think that Carlson has some valid points, that's not the reason the GOP is faring so poorly in what should be a "slam dunk" election.

This is Roe fallout...and the GOP will not address it or own it...their plan is to sweep it under the rug and hope it goes away.

Well, we should expect such blowback whenever we try to repeal any unconstitutional laws or reverse unconstitutional SCOTUS decisions. The media—still 1,000% the biggest threat we face, IMO—will continue to set the narrative in the presence of timid republican politicians.

How many republicans will throw down to the mat to defend states' rights to set their own laws regarding abortion?

I'll give you a hint:

It's gonna be the crazy ones. The ones that certain republicans see as an embarrassment. The ones everyone says they want to replace with a Romney, a Pence, or a Liz. The so called "grandstanders" and the "grifters." Many of them will be *GASP* Trumpers.

The crazy ones are the only ones who fight.

 

[Anti Federalist]

Well, we should expect such blowback whenever we try to repeal any unconstitutional laws or reverse unconstitutional SCOTUS decisions. The media—still 1,000% the biggest threat we face, IMO—will continue to set the narrative in the presence of timid republican politicians.

How many republicans will throw down to the mat to defend states' rights to set their own laws regarding abortion?

I'll give you a hint:

It's gonna be the crazy ones. The ones that certain republicans see as an embarrassment. The ones everyone says they want to replace with a Romney, a Pence, or a Liz. The so called "grandstanders" and the "grifters." Many of them will be *GASP* Trumpers.

The crazy ones are the only ones who fight.

Exactly right.

They called Ron "crazy" as well.

 

[helenpaul]

Even though I posted it and think that Carlson has some valid points, that's not the reason the GOP is faring so poorly in what should be a "slam dunk" election.

This is Roe fallout...and the GOP will not address it or own it...their plan is to sweep it under the rug and hope it goes away.

Reps need a national message, something they seem incapable of doing. If i were them, rather than dumping money into individual senate races i would put money in national commercials and hammer 3 themes time after time after time. Crime, immigration, and 87,000 new IRS agents coming after you. Never let up on that.
They need a clear, concise message every candidate can get behind.

 

[PAF]

Reps need a national message, something they seem incapable of doing. If i were them, rather than dumping money into individual senate races i would put money in national commercials and hammer 3 themes time after time after time. Crime, immigration, and 87,000 new IRS agents coming after you. Never let up on that.
They need a clear, concise message every candidate can get behind.

Here, I’ll fix it for you so you don’t sound like a neocon:

1. Elimination of thousands of laws which make innocents criminals.

2. Stop funding the MIC to hold and process immigrants and stop all incentives.

3. 87,000 new Eliminate the IRS.

Other than that, I dig the idea