Democrats losing lead on Republicans in midterm election polls

[euphemia]

Here is my reminder: Polls do not mean anything. The only thing that matters is the final count on Tuesday. In the meantime, the MSM is trying to make news based on nothing.

 

[enhanced_deficit]

There are polls suggesting that both D's and R's are energized ahead of polling coming week.

But polls have been wrong before.

Is there potential cause for concern for MAGA candidates if part of 'Alt-Right'/Far Right stayed home on polling day.. or that poses negligibe risk to MAGA revolution that took America by storm in 2016?

Has so called 'alt-Right' turned anti-MAGA and could stay home during midterm elections?

If all 100 of them stay home I don't think it will flip any seats.

Probably more than 100 and less than 22 Million:


22 million Americans support neo-Nazis, new poll indicates
Survey was conducted in the wake of deadly violence which ravaged Charlottesville

• Tuesday 22 August 2017

Nine per cent of Americans say holding neo-Nazi or white supremacist views is acceptable, according to a new poll.
The Washington Post ABC poll was carried out in the wake of the deadly racially-charged violence which erupted at a white supremacist rally in Charlottesville earlier this month. If extrapolated to the entire US population, nine per cent would equate to 22 million people.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...supremacists-kkk-far-right-poll-a7907091.html



Polls can be ofcourse manipulated/exaggerated by media. However Far Right Nationalist movement no longer seems to be a tiny fringe.

 

[Swordsmyth]

Probably more than 100 and less than 22 Million:


22 million Americans support neo-Nazis, new poll indicates
Survey was conducted in the wake of deadly violence which ravaged Charlottesville

• Tuesday 22 August 2017

Nine per cent of Americans say holding neo-Nazi or white supremacist views is acceptable, according to a new poll.
The Washington Post ABC poll was carried out in the wake of the deadly racially-charged violence which erupted at a white supremacist rally in Charlottesville earlier this month. If extrapolated to the entire US population, nine per cent would equate to 22 million people.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...supremacists-kkk-far-right-poll-a7907091.html



Polls can be ofcourse manipulated/exaggerated by media. However Far Right Nationalist movement no longer seems to be a tiny fringe.

There are very few and the number that might decide not to vote is even smaller.

 

[enhanced_deficit]

Based on scientific polling data available from all sources so far, I'm prepared to project that Navy Blue team keeps the Senate and Sky Blue team takes the House.
Original Red team had been banished mostly. Now it's race between Soro funded horses vs Adelson funded horses regardless of stripes they display to entertain cheering crowds.

Breaking down the non-scientific projections, unconfirmed rumors suggest that Netanyahu-Jarvanka-Conservatives and Syria-ISIS-Neocon-Liberals would not get completely wiped out during midterm elections and genuine America Firster/non-Globalist Liberty minded folks from both teams would make only marginal gains.

There are very few and the number that might decide not to vote is even smaller.

The "alt-right" term used above can be misleading, is somewhat stigmatized/loaded and often used by media in differing contexts. But between so called "moderate Republicans" and "Far Right", there is probably significant size of conservative base that will play a critical role in elections.

Here is another example of what probably would be called a subset of 'Hard Right' conservatives segment:

Conservative leader on Trump: 'He's a fraud and has betrayed us twice now'
'Gun-grabber-in-chief': Conservatives turn on Trump as threat to confiscate guns prompts Second Amendment-related outrage
Thursday 1 March 2018
Donald Trump has sparked fury among gun owners and conservatives after repeatedly backing proposals to tighten gun control laws.



But in this heated atmosphere, probably few would stay home and much greater segment will fall under "he's better than Hillary" column.

Nonetheless, there are signs of divisions/cracks in MAGA Coalition , even GOP mainstream leadership declined to join Trump when visiting PA in the aftermath of PA shooting past week.

 

[Swordsmyth]

https://twitter.com/salilstatistics/status/1023753555281248256

 

[Chester Copperpot]

Buy "shares" of your bet on any particular issue/election and if you're right, the share pays $1. Buy a share of "yes" for .52 and if you're right, it'll pay $1. If wrong, you lose the .52. You can sell the share beforehand to lock in a profit if, say, the price of the share rises to .72, thus clearing a .20 profit on the share. It's kinda like options trading but for prediction markets unrelated to stocks. It's based in New Zealand, iirc, so player beware. They also claim to openly share tax info with taxing agencies.

thanks.. sounds cool

 

[Swordsmyth]

US equity markets ramped into the green (even Nadaq recovered from its AAPL-beating) as the final Rasmussen Reports Generic Congressional Ballot before Election Day shows Republicans edging ahead by one point...
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey of Likely U.S. Voters finds that 46% would choose the Republican candidate if the elections for Congress were held today. Forty-five percent (45%) would vote for the Democrat. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and six percent (6%) remain undecided.
A week ago, Democrats held a 47% to 44% lead.
This is the first poll showing a GOP lead, and it may matter: while often accused of bias, Rasmussen was the only major pollster in 2016 to predict a Trump victory; Rasmussen was also the only major pollster whose prediction was proven correct.

More at: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-05/stocks-surge-after-latest-poll-shows-gop-retaining-house

 

[euphemia]

The incessant polling is getting on my nerves. It is nothing more than a way to shape public opinion and create news based on nothing. Supposedly Dems were going to win, and win big. Now networks and polling groups are backpedaling as hard as they can because they know the numbers just aren’t there and they want to create the impression that they were really right all along. They have polled themselves right into irrelevance.

 

[Anti Globalist]

All aboard the red wave train.

 

[timosman]

 

[timosman]

 

[enhanced_deficit]

Some troubling last minute projections:

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showth...ions-will-go&p=6703916&viewfull=1#post6703916


Hopefully it's fakenews.

 

[Swordsmyth]

 

[timosman]

 

[aGameOfThrones]

from the video:

"When one party controls all branches of government... it's kinda of a power lock." ~Dianne Feinstein

 

[bkreigh]

All aboard the red wave train.

That aint happening

 

[timosman]

That aint happening

Dems are sitting this one out. What if we were wrong?

 

[timosman]

L.A. County Residents Face Long Lines as Some Are Still Registering to Vote

https://ktla.com/2018/11/06/l-a-cou...-lines-as-some-are-still-registering-to-vote/

NOVEMBER 6, 2018

Some voters in Los Angeles County are waiting up to two hours to cast their ballot on Election Day.

A spokesman with the Los Angeles County Registrar says the line at its headquarters in Norwalk is wrapping around the building and that wait times were at about two hours Tuesday.

Registrar spokesman Mike Sanchez couldn't immediately confirm online posts by a Los Angeles Times reporter that some people were giving up and getting out of line, while others were being handed tickets so they could use the bathroom or get food without losing their place.

The site is the only one in the vast county that allows voters to register and cast a ballot on Election Day, a fact that some complained about on social media.

Sanchez says he understands frustration by some voters and that same-day registration and voting is being expanded throughout the county and will be ready in March 2020.

 

[dannno]

A new poll released Friday shows incumbent Republican Rep. Dana Rohrabacher with a nine-point lead over Democrat challenger Harley Rouda with just days to go before the midterm elections on November 6.

The poll, conducted by Thomas Partners Strategies, shows Rohrabacher with the support of 50.7% of likely voters in the 48th congressional district, compared to Rouda’s 41.6%. The margin of error is 4.7%.
Strategist John Thomas notes: “While California overall breaks in favor of Democrats and against Trump, CA-48 is proving to be the firewall holding back the blue wave.”
The poll is the first to show Rohrabacher with a statistically significant lead. A poll last month by Monmouth University Polling Institute last month showed Rohrabacher with a small lead, within the margin of error, and previous polls had shown the race as a dead heat.
Rohrabacher’s rise in the polls is remarkable, given that Rouda and his allies have outspent Rohrabacher many times over. Last month, former New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg dumped $4 million into the race against Rohrabacher, making the contest for the 48th district one of the most expensive in the country.

More at: https://www.breitbart.com/midterm-e...s-9-point-lead-in-ca-48-holds-back-blue-wave/

[h=1]Dana Rohrabacher Faces His Toughest Election Yet. If He Wins, He’ll Owe It To Legal Pot.[/h] Facing the toughest election of his two-decade career, the Orange County Republican has been cashing in on his support for legal weed.



https://www.buzzfeednews.com/articl...ohrabacher-marijuana-legal-cannabis-donations

 

[Zippyjuan]

US equity markets ramped into the green (even Nadaq recovered from its AAPL-beating) as the final Rasmussen Reports Generic Congressional Ballot before Election Day shows Republicans edging ahead by one point...
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey of Likely U.S. Voters finds that 46% would choose the Republican candidate if the elections for Congress were held today. Forty-five percent (45%) would vote for the Democrat. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and six percent (6%) remain undecided.
A week ago, Democrats held a 47% to 44% lead.
This is the first poll showing a GOP lead, and it may matter: while often accused of bias, Rasmussen was the only major pollster in 2016 to predict a Trump victory; Rasmussen was also the only major pollster whose prediction was proven correct.

More at: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-05/stocks-surge-after-latest-poll-shows-gop-retaining-house

So, how accurate WAS that Rasmussen poll?