Debate bounce: Trump-Hillary tied in latest poll

[dannno]

ARE YOU KIDDING ME????? We did land on the moon you know.

Well they give the appearance of colluding against Trump. They may be doing it for some other motivation, but it's pretty clear they are constantly attacking him - but they are also constantly giving him airtime. They attack him 95% of the time on bullshit issues. Maybe they are doing that to discredit themselves further and giving him more media attention because they want to elect him or block the third party issue, I dunno, but you can't deny they are constantly on the attack. If you hate the media, then it makes a certain part of you like Trump, even if you can't support his candidacy due to some of his platform.

 

[dannno]

It is called "weighting". If the survey gets too many people from one demographic, they discount or reduce that portion of the answers to what their actual percentage of the population is. That way if they get a larger number of say Democrats, it does not distort the final figures as much. If one third of the population is Democrat, one third Republican and one third unaffiliated and they get say 40% Democrats and 25% Republicans they adjust the tallies down so that the total Democratic answers count as one third of the final figures and adjust up the Republicans to get them to one third of the final figure.

Yep, that is what they are supposed to do, they are supposed to weight it back to reality if they get too much of one demographic - but they are not actually doing that.

 

[Zippyjuan]

All polls? Which ones? Do you have raw data to show it happening?

 

[Mordan]

Well they give the appearance of colluding against Trump. They may be doing it for some other motivation, but it's pretty clear they are constantly attacking him - but they are also constantly giving him airtime. They attack him 95% of the time on bull$#@! issues. Maybe they are doing that to discredit themselves further and giving him more media attention because they want to elect him or block the third party issue, I dunno, but you can't deny they are constantly on the attack. If you hate the media, then it makes a certain part of you like Trump, even if you can't support his candidacy due to some of his platform.

I mostly support Trump because the media hates him. You are jumping through too many hoops. If the media wanted Trump to win, they surely would play their powerful hand otherwise.
Hillary is so weak, the moderators have to debate Trump while she can rest and stay silent.

 

[dannno]

All polls? Which ones? Do you have raw data to show it happening?

Yes, there is an article from zerohedge that has been posted about 20 times with a nice graph showing how much they weight Dem vs. Rep over time.

 

[LifeLibertyPursuit]

As much as I'm not a Trump fan, the polls are total bull$#@!.

They create a narrative by polling mostly Democrats to show that Trump is down - then slowly they poll more Republicans to show a picture that is closer to reality, then they release some stupid bull$#@! like the Access Hollywood interview, or wait for a debate or a convention or something and then they do some more polls that lean more heavily Democrat to create a narrative that Trump is down and his campaign is ending.

Biggest pile of media horse manure since Ron Paul ran.

Uh, no dude.. look, I am not a Trump fan or a Trump supporter. This is just the reality of the situation.

I don't know why the media is colluding against Trump, maybe they are doing because they know people don't believe them anymore, they want to make him look like an outsider so he will win, or at least keep out any serious third party competition. Or maybe Trump isn't in the 'club', he is anti-establishment and the establishment doesn't want him in. I have spent a lot of time trying to figure this out, and there is no clear evidence either way at this point, both are speculation. But the bottom line is the media is constantly colluding against Trump and attacking him on issues that are completely bull$#@! 95% of the time, while ignoring his real issues on things like privacy, data collection, the fourth amendment, etc.. It's enough to constantly tempt me to vote for Trump, even though I won't, but it's tempting only because I hate the media so much.

So they can't completely make up the polling numbers, well, they can if they want, but then it would probably contradict other polls and at some point they would become discredited.. But if the polling agencies have an agenda, they can collude and manipulate things a bit.

Donald Trump dominated so hard in the primary, there was nothing they could do. They could manipulate things to show dips once in a while, like I said they are doing here, when the time is right and try to convince people his campaign was ending when it wasn't.. They did that like 115 times I think.. so they absolutely DID do some poll manipulation during the primaries.. but ultimately Trump was dominating so hard they couldn't just make someone else look like they were winning.


Check this out, the data absolutely backs me up:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-11/latest-nbcwsj-poll-utter-nonsense

They ALWAYS poll too heavily leaning Democrat, but they shift the numbers around constantly to create a narrative depending on what is happening, or what they have planned.

Yup after the second debate, more wikileaks painting a clearer picture, more establishment gops head leaders sabotaging, and Trump slowly spewing some actaul well thought out views shockingly, I have decided it is time to burn this system down and vote for him.

HRC will stop future liberty with her globalistic tendencies and views. Cognitive dissonance is running on overdrive. Do not over think. You know game theory of 12 steps ahead and then loose sight of the bigger picture. Trump is not a friend, he is a home wrecker. Seat back amd enjoy. If Hillary wins then we will see our future fade. Wikileaks is going to expose both parties and I pray to God wikileaks does.

I am tired and fed up after being emotionally invested in Ron and Rand's campaigns, donating money, and spreading the word. Let it burn to start fresh. I warned my friends and neighbors. Oh well the Ark still has space but are they too ignorant to join

 

[Antischism]

Read this if you want to understand why this particular poll is always an outlier. If you want to get your hopes up and have them crushed on Election Day, that's your choice.

 

[dannno]

Read this if you want to understand why this particular poll is always an outlier. If you want to get your hopes up and have them crushed on Election Day, that's your choice.

lol, that's gotta be the dumbest thing I've ever read in my life.

 

[Tywysog Cymru]

Pollsters don't know anything. I'll show you how the election is really going to turn out:

First, I know a guy who voted for Sanders in the primary, who is now voting for Trump. This put Vermont in Safe Trump territory.

Second, he's going to win all the states that Romney won except Utah because Utahns don't want to make America great again.

Third, Trump will win all the swing states because who's going to vote for crooked Hillary?

Fourth, Trump will win the Hispanic vote, that locks up New Mexico and puts California in play.

Fifth, Trump is from New York, so home state advantage.

Sixth, Christie endorsed Trump so Trump wins New Jersey.

Seventh, Trump has not specified whether or not he will win the Asian vote. It is impossible to know who will win Hawaii until he does.


262 Solid Trump

105 Likely Trump

49 Lean Trump

59 Tossup

54 Lean Clinton

3 Solid Clinton

6 Johnson

Trump gets at least 416 Electoral Votes!!!!!

 

[John F Kennedy III]

In those polls, they polled like 95% Democrats and like 5% Republicans.. lol...

Yeah fuck RCP.

 

[John F Kennedy III]

Pollsters don't know anything. I'll show you how the election is really going to turn out:

First, I know a guy who voted for Sanders in the primary, who is now voting for Trump. This put Vermont in Safe Trump territory.

Second, he's going to win all the states that Romney won except Utah because Utahns don't want to make America great again.

Third, Trump will win all the swing states because who's going to vote for crooked Hillary?

Fourth, Trump will win the Hispanic vote, that locks up New Mexico and puts California in play.

Fifth, Trump is from New York, so home state advantage.

Sixth, Christie endorsed Trump so Trump wins New Jersey.

Seventh, Trump has not specified whether or not he will win the Asian vote. It is impossible to know who will win Hawaii until he does.


262 Solid Trump

105 Likely Trump

49 Lean Trump

59 Tossup

54 Lean Clinton

3 Solid Clinton

6 Johnson

Trump gets at least 416 Electoral Votes!!!!!

Shit at this point I'm hoping he does get 400+. Fuck all these disgusting pieces of shit that still support Hillary even knowing all the insane shit she has done.

 

[John F Kennedy III]

What's wrong calling out conspiracy theories for what they likely are in some sarcastic manner?

Do you believe what was shown on TV in 1969 was a real moon landing?

 

[Mordan]

Do you believe what was shown on TV in 1969 was a real moon landing?

P(MordanBrain + what was shown on TV in 1969 was a real moon landing) = 90 to 98 on a ]0 to 100[ scale.

 

[Nighthawkeye]

First off the La times daily tracker has had Trump winning all along its the only one that they post daily, this is the first time it actually has Clinton up less than a percent. This poll has been claiming a Trump lead all along. As for the whining of the polls taking more democrats than republicans that is because more democrats about 10 percent more have voted in the last several presidential elections. If they took even numbers it would not be representing the population. There is more people claiming to be democrats than their are people claiming to be republicans, and the polls take that into account, specially for presidential elections where democrats tend to come out in higher percentage than they do for midterms. Republicans tend to be more reliable voters.

So this poll having Trump tied with Clinton is bad for Trump, not a positive.

 

[enhanced_deficit]

Other polls are trickling in:

[FONT=ARIAL,VERDANA,HELVETICA][SIZE=+7]RASMUSSEN: HE'S BACK IN LEAD[/SIZE][/FONT]

 

[torchbearer]

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/trump-s-campaign-pulling-out-virginia-n665541

Donald Trump's campaign is "pulling out of Virginia," a move that stunned staff in the battleground state, three sources with knowledge of the decision told NBC News.The decision came from Trump's headquarters in New York and was announced on a conference call late Wednesday that left some Republican Party operatives in the state blindsided. Two staffers directly involved in the GOP's efforts in Virginia confirmed the decision.
The move to pull out of Virginia shows Trump is "running essentially a four state campaign," with the focus now shifting to battlegrounds critical to his chances in November: Pennsylvania, Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio, a source with knowledge of the decision told NBC News.

 

[TheCount]

They ALWAYS poll too heavily leaning Democrat, but they shift the numbers around constantly to create a narrative depending on what is happening, or what they have planned.

Party identification isn't 50/50 split in the country, so it shouldn't be in the polls - and it's just a survey question not a fact, so depending on how the question is asked, people may answer how they feel at the moment rather than based upon what party they are actually a member of. This is especially true for those people who answer that they 'lean' towards a particular party. They're likely not a member, and they may be answering based upon which candidate they support at the moment.

That Zerohedge link you posted shows exactly that: Independents are 13% instead of 40%. Why? Because they're asked which party they identify with, not which party they're a member of.

A person’s party identification can shift, and therefore the overall balance between parties does too. Democrats have typically had an advantage in self-identification — a 4 percentage point edge in 2000, a 7-point advantage in2008 and a 6-point edge in 2012, according to exit polls — but they had no advantage in the 2004 election. Since 1952, however, almost every presidential election has featured a Democratic advantage in party identification.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-arent-skewed-trump-really-is-losing-badly/

 

[torchbearer]

 

[Madison320]

I don't understand what would motivate the polls to lie. Are you less likely to vote if a poll shows your candidate is losing? If a poll is consistently wrong won't it lose respect?

That being said I think the polls are going to misjudge the difference in how many people actually go out and vote for each candidate. I think the Trump voter are MUCH more enthusiastic. They'll vote in snow, rain, sickness, whatever. Clinton supporters will stay home if there's any reason.

 

[Cleaner44]

The polls are all now just as suspect as the corrupt media and political organizations that conduct them.

Forget the polls. Use your senses.