Debate bounce: Trump-Hillary tied in latest poll

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enhanced_deficit

Member
Joined
Mar 17, 2013
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POLL: ALL TIED UP...

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Not surprising given recent developments:

1- Sunday's accountability debate

2- Damaging Clinton campiagn leaks

3- Damaging Obama video

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th


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Were these polls that this chart is based on taken before Brexit or after this Sun debate?

OP news has has latest daily tracking poll.
 
the map was created using the latest state polls published on real clear politics.
 
enhanced_deficit said:
Were these polls that this chart is based on taken before Brexit or after this Sun debate?

Poll in above news is latest daily tracking poll.
Click to expand...

So basically its good for tracking trends, what were they polling at before the debate on that poll? It really sounds like we need more data.
 
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...tions_electoral_college_map_race_changes.html

[TABLE="class: president, width: 859"]
[TR]
[TH="class: date, align: left"]DATE[/TH]
[TH="align: center"]STATE[/TH]
[TH="align: center"]PREVIOUS STATUS[/TH]
[TH="class: arrow, align: center"][/TH]
[TH="align: center"]NEW STATUS[/TH]
[TH="class: electoral, align: center"]RCP ELECTORAL COUNT[/TH]
[TH="align: center"]RCP NATIONAL AVG.[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: date"]10/9[/TD]
[TD="class: region, align: center"]New Hampshire[/TD]
[TD="class: status, align: center"]Toss Up[/TD]
[TD="class: arrow, align: center"]»»»[/TD]
[TD="class: status, align: center"]Leans Clinton[/TD]
[TD="class: electoral status, align: center"]Clinton 260 - Trump 165[/TD]
[TD="class: total, align: center"]Clinton +4.6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: date"]10/8[/TD]
[TD="class: region, align: center"]Alaska[/TD]
[TD="class: status, align: center"]Safe Trump[/TD]
[TD="class: arrow, align: center"]»»»[/TD]
[TD="class: status, align: center"]Likely Trump[/TD]
[TD="class: electoral status, align: center"]Clinton 256 - Trump 165[/TD]
[TD="class: total, align: center"]Clinton +4.6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: date"]10/8[/TD]
[TD="class: region, align: center"]Colorado[/TD]
[TD="class: status, align: center"]Toss Up[/TD]
[TD="class: arrow, align: center"]»»»[/TD]
[TD="class: status, align: center"]Leans Clinton[/TD]
[TD="class: electoral status, align: center"]Clinton 256 - Trump 165[/TD]
[TD="class: total, align: center"]Clinton +4.6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: date"]10/7[/TD]
[TD="class: region, align: center"]Wisconsin[/TD]
[TD="class: status, align: center"]Toss Up[/TD]
[TD="class: arrow, align: center"]»»»[/TD]
[TD="class: status, align: center"]Leans Clinton[/TD]
[TD="class: electoral status, align: center"]Clinton 247 - Trump 165[/TD]
[TD="class: total, align: center"]Clinton +4.7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: date"]10/6[/TD]
[TD="class: region, align: center"]Massachusetts[/TD]
[TD="class: status, align: center"]Likely Clinton[/TD]
[TD="class: arrow, align: center"]»»»[/TD]
[TD="class: status, align: center"]Safe Clinton[/TD]
[TD="class: electoral status, align: center"]Clinton 237 - Trump 165[/TD]
[TD="class: total, align: center"]Clinton +4.1




[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]


[TABLE="class: president, width: 859"]
[TR]
[TH="class: date, align: left"]DATE[/TH]
[TH="align: center"]STATE[/TH]
[TH="align: center"]PREVIOUS STATUS[/TH]
[TH="class: arrow, align: center"][/TH]
[TH="align: center"]NEW STATUS[/TH]
[TH="class: electoral, align: center"]RCP ELECTORAL COUNT[/TH]
[TH="align: center"]RCP NATIONAL AVG.[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: date"]10/6[/TD]
[TD="class: region, align: center"]Michigan[/TD]
[TD="class: status, align: center"]Toss Up[/TD]
[TD="class: arrow, align: center"]»»»[/TD]
[TD="class: status, align: center"]Leans Clinton[/TD]
[TD="class: electoral status, align: center"]Clinton 237 - Trump 165[/TD]
[TD="class: total, align: center"]Clinton +4.1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: date"]10/6[/TD]
[TD="class: region, align: center"]New Hampshire[/TD]
[TD="class: status, align: center"]Leans Clinton[/TD]
[TD="class: arrow, align: center"]»»»[/TD]
[TD="class: status, align: center"]Toss Up[/TD]
[TD="class: electoral status, align: center"]Clinton 237 - Trump 165[/TD]
[TD="class: total, align: center"]Clinton +4.1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: date"]10/5[/TD]
[TD="class: region, align: center"]Pennsylvania[/TD]
[TD="class: status, align: center"]Toss Up[/TD]
[TD="class: arrow, align: center"]»»»[/TD]
[TD="class: status, align: center"]Leans Clinton[/TD]
[TD="class: electoral status, align: center"]Clinton 225 - Trump 165[/TD]
[TD="class: total, align: center"]Clinton +3.9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: date"]10/4[/TD]
[TD="class: region, align: center"]Illinois[/TD]
[TD="class: status, align: center"]Leans Clinton[/TD]
[TD="class: arrow, align: center"]»»»[/TD]
[TD="class: status, align: center"]Likely Clinton[/TD]
[TD="class: electoral status, align: center"]Clinton 205 - Trump 165[/TD]
[TD="class: total, align: center"]Clinton +3.8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: date"]10/4[/TD]
[TD="class: region, align: center"]Oregon[/TD]
[TD="class: status, align: center"]Leans Clinton[/TD]
[TD="class: arrow, align: center"]»»»[/TD]
[TD="class: status, align: center"]Likely Clinton[/TD]
[TD="class: electoral status, align: center"]Clinton 205 - Trump 165[/TD]
[TD="class: total, align: center"]Clinton +3.8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: date"]10/4[/TD]
[TD="class: region, align: center"]Tennessee[/TD]
[TD="class: status, align: center"]Safe Trump[/TD]
[TD="class: arrow, align: center"]»»»[/TD]
[TD="class: status, align: center"]Likely Trump[/TD]
[TD="class: electoral status, align: center"]Clinton 205 - Trump 165[/TD]
[TD="class: total, align: center"]Clinton +3.8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: date"]10/3[/TD]
[TD="class: region, align: center"]New Hampshire[/TD]
[TD="class: status, align: center"]Toss Up[/TD]
[TD="class: arrow, align: center"]»»»[/TD]
[TD="class: status, align: center"]Leans Clinton[/TD]
[TD="class: electoral status, align: center"]Clinton 205 - Trump 165[/TD]
[TD="class: total, align: center"]Clinton +3.2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: date"]10/1[/TD]
[TD="class: region, align: center"]Virginia[/TD]
[TD="class: status, align: center"]Toss Up[/TD]
[TD="class: arrow, align: center"]»»»[/TD]
[TD="class: status, align: center"]Leans Clinton[/TD]
[TD="class: electoral status, align: center"]Clinton 201 - Trump 165[/TD]
[TD="class: total, align: center"]Clinton +2.7[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
 
torchbearer said:
the map was created using the latest state polls published on real clear politics.
Click to expand...

As much as I'm not a Trump fan, the polls are total bullshit.

They create a narrative by polling mostly Democrats to show that Trump is down - then slowly they poll more Republicans to show a picture that is closer to reality, then they release some stupid bullshit like the Access Hollywood interview, or wait for a debate or a convention or something and then they do some more polls that lean more heavily Democrat to create a narrative that Trump is down and his campaign is ending.

Biggest pile of media horse manure since Ron Paul ran.
 
dannno said:
As much as I'm not a Trump fan, the polls are total bull$#@!.

They create a narrative by polling mostly Democrats to show that Trump is down - then slowly they poll more Republicans to show a picture that is closer to reality, then they release some stupid bull$#@! like the Access Hollywood interview, or wait for a debate or a convention or something and then they do some more polls that lean more heavily Democrat to create a narrative that Trump is down and his campaign is ending.

Biggest pile of media horse manure since Ron Paul ran.
Click to expand...


Somehow the polls were accurate during the primary, but now they aren't because they cause cognitive dissonance. It is a sad display for sure.
 
torchbearer said:
Somehow the polls were accurate during the primary, but now they aren't because they cause cognitive dissonance. It is a sad display for sure.
Click to expand...

Uh, no dude.. look, I am not a Trump fan or a Trump supporter. This is just the reality of the situation.

I don't know why the media is colluding against Trump, maybe they are doing because they know people don't believe them anymore, they want to make him look like an outsider so he will win, or at least keep out any serious third party competition. Or maybe Trump isn't in the 'club', he is anti-establishment and the establishment doesn't want him in. I have spent a lot of time trying to figure this out, and there is no clear evidence either way at this point, both are speculation. But the bottom line is the media is constantly colluding against Trump and attacking him on issues that are completely bullshit 95% of the time, while ignoring his real issues on things like privacy, data collection, the fourth amendment, etc.. It's enough to constantly tempt me to vote for Trump, even though I won't, but it's tempting only because I hate the media so much.

So they can't completely make up the polling numbers, well, they can if they want, but then it would probably contradict other polls and at some point they would become discredited.. But if the polling agencies have an agenda, they can collude and manipulate things a bit.

Donald Trump dominated so hard in the primary, there was nothing they could do. They could manipulate things to show dips once in a while, like I said they are doing here, when the time is right and try to convince people his campaign was ending when it wasn't.. They did that like 115 times I think.. so they absolutely DID do some poll manipulation during the primaries.. but ultimately Trump was dominating so hard they couldn't just make someone else look like they were winning.


Check this out, the data absolutely backs me up:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-11/latest-nbcwsj-poll-utter-nonsense

They ALWAYS poll too heavily leaning Democrat, but they shift the numbers around constantly to create a narrative depending on what is happening, or what they have planned.

2m5dmew90wqx.png
 
Last edited:
enhanced_deficit said:
[SIZE=+7]
POLL: ALL TIED UP...

[/SIZE]
Click to expand...

The poll uses some unusual methodology. The ask the participants how likely they are to vote for a candidate. If somebody says they are 60% sure they will vote for Clinton and somebody else says they are 90% likely to vote for Trump, then Trump is given the lead even though you have two voters likely to vote for completely different candidates so it should be tied. They admit that their poll has been biased towards Trump due to that methodology.
http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-poll-faq-20161006-snap-story.html

So that means a candidate with very enthusiastic supporters who say they are certain to vote may do better than one with wishy-washy backing?

Yes. Earlier this summer, Trump benefited from this method — he had more supporters than Hillary Clinton who were 100% certain of their vote. Clinton has now caught up on that measure.
Click to expand...
 
Last edited:
dannno said:
Uh, no dude.. look, I am not a Trump fan or a Trump supporter. This is just the reality of the situation.

I don't know why the media is colluding against Trump
Click to expand...


ARE YOU KIDDING ME????? We did land on the moon you know.
 
torchbearer said:
Somehow the polls were accurate during the primary, but now they aren't because they cause cognitive dissonance. It is a sad display for sure.
Click to expand...

During the primaries we were complaining that they weren't polling enough young people. Sure enough, Rand never picked up in the polls because they didn't poll enough young people, and on the day of the election in Iowa, most of the people who said they were planning on voting for Rand said they were switching their vote because HIS POLLING NUMBERS WERE TOO LOW. If his polling numbers had been accurately reflected, he would have received a lot more votes. I dunno what the outcome would have been, but we know for sure it would have been much different.

This time they are polling too many Democrats. It's an entirely different dynamic than the primary, but essentially they are doing the same thing - polling who they want to poll to get the desired outcome, to create a narrative to convince people to vote for a certain person.. It's all literally right there in the data, you can see it for yourself. Also, Trump is bringing out new supporters who may not have voted in the last election, and most of the polls are of people who voted in the last election.

It's not like all this doesn't have clear explanations.
 
dannno said:
Uh, no dude.. look, I am not a Trump fan or a Trump supporter. This is just the reality of the situation.


Check this out, the data absolutely backs me up:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-11/latest-nbcwsj-poll-utter-nonsense

They ALWAYS poll too heavily leaning Democrat, but they shift the numbers around constantly to create a narrative depending on what is happening, or what they have planned.

2m5dmew90wqx.png
Click to expand...

It is called "weighting". If the survey gets too many people from one demographic, they discount or reduce that portion of the answers to what their actual percentage of the population is. That way if they get a larger number of say Democrats, it does not distort the final figures as much. If one third of the population is Democrat, one third Republican and one third unaffiliated and they get say 40% Democrats and 25% Republicans they adjust the tallies down so that the total Democratic answers count as one third of the final figures and adjust up the Republicans to get them to one third of the final figure.
 
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