Cruz at 31% Rand 3% DM Register poll

[Jan2017]

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/st...g-shakeup-iowa-poll-cruz-soars-lead/77199800/

"Big shakeup," said J. Ann Selzer, pollster for The Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll.
"This is a sudden move into a commanding position for Cruz."

Three Republicans are tied at 3 percent: Paul, a watchdog for government overreach;
former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, a torchbearer for Christian conservative morals;
and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, a self-proclaimed messenger of hard truths.

 

[LatinsforPaul]

People need to relax, we still have 50 days to go until the Iowa Caucus. According to this poll's results Cruz has approximately 35,000 caucus voters and Rand has approximately 4000. Does this make any sense at all. Rand today probably has at least 4000 in just students to caucus for him, if not more.

Keep your sights on February 1 and helping the campaign in any manner you can.

 

[Jan2017]

They point out an enormous volatility . . .

Cruz, a Texas U.S. senator famous for defying party leaders and using government shutdown tactics to hold up funding for the Obamacare health care law and abortion provider Planned Parenthood, was the favorite of 10 percent of likely Republican caucusgoers in the last Iowa Poll in October. He's now at 31 percent.
Carson's zenith was 28 percent in the poll two months ago. Trump's highest support was 23 percent back in August, when he led the field by 5 points.

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/st...g-shakeup-iowa-poll-cruz-soars-lead/77199800/

 

[derek4ever]

People need to relax, we still have 50 days to go until the Iowa Caucus. According to this poll's results Cruz has approximately 35,000 caucus voters and Rand has approximately 4000. Does this make any sense at all. Rand today probably has at least 4000 in just students to caucus for him, if not more.

Keep your sights on February 1 and helping the campaign in any manner you can.

Plus the fact that 67% of the caucus goers in the poll are still undecided. They're soft-core and can go any way. I also read from them that they say there won't be a clear favorite to win the IA caucus until the very last day. So, I think we need to just keep on backing Rand, knowing that there will be a contested convention and just keep on selling his policies to our family and friends (over half of my family and friends are going to vote for Rand)

 

[RDM]

You got Cruz who sided with Obama in arming our enemies and the people in Iowa are supporting this? How do you compete with that?

- Ted Cruz, member of The Senate Armed Services Committee, voted YES on the markup of the 2015 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), which included a provision that would authorize the Department of Defense to train and equip Syrian forces.
http://thehill.com/blogs/floor-acti...obamas-policy-in-syria-could-be-gas-on-a-fire

 

[Origanalist]

You got Cruz who sided with Obama in arming our enemies and the people in Iowa are supporting this? How do you compete with that?

- Ted Cruz, member of The Senate Armed Services Committee, voted YES on the markup of the 2015 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), which included a provision that would authorize the Department of Defense to train and equip Syrian forces.
http://thehill.com/blogs/floor-acti...obamas-policy-in-syria-could-be-gas-on-a-fire

THIS^^^^^ is the problem. As much as we would like to hope it wasn't so, our fellow 'Muricans don't see things the same. (or see much of anything clearly for that matter)

 

[Jan2017]

Iowans in fear mode go with Cruz : "will carpet bomb them to oblivion and I don't know if sand can glow in the dark, but we'll find out"
from (video) embedded in :
http://crooksandliars.com/2015/12/ted-cruz-wants-bomb-isis-until-sand-glows

 

[dude58677]

As long as the polling stays the same as it is we will have a brokered convention.

 

[LatinsforPaul]

The poll of 400 likely Republican caucus-goers was conducted Dec. 7–10. The margin of error is 4.9 percent.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/gop-primaries/263060-iowa-poll-ted-cruz-donald-trump-ben-carson

 

[derek4ever]

The poll of 400 likely Republican caucus-goers was conducted Dec. 7–10. The margin of error is 4.9 percent.

OK, so this means Rand is stuck between 3% and 8%, thus giving him an average of 5.5%. Again, the margin or error in these polls is crazy!

 

[Robrank]

OK, so this means Rand is stuck between 3% and 8%, thus giving him an average of 5.5%. Again, the margin or error in these polls is crazy!

Margin of error is PLUS or MINUS 4.9%, so that means he can be at 0 to 7.9%.

 

[CPUd]

As long as the polling stays the same as it is we will have a brokered convention.

Sort of. But the leaders need to be different in different states.

 

[DevilsAdvocate]

Margin of error is PLUS or MINUS 4.9%, so that means he can be at 0 to 7.9%.

I've gone through how horrible the polling is

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showth...etime-Republican-Debate&p=6065620#post6065620

Near the low (or the high) end of the polling range, the error bars get a little funky. So if you're at 4%, instead of having a standard error of +/- 2%, you will have lopsided error bars. So for example, +2% -1%. This is because the "standard error" is based on the width of a gaussian distribution. This gaussian is an approximation of a probability distribution near the middle of the range of a large data set. If you get near the edge of that range, the gaussian "bell curve" is no longer a good approximation, instead it's better to use something known as a "Poisson distribution".

In this image, you can see the Poissan distribution (lamda = 1) slowly morphing into the Gaussian bell curve (lamda = 9) as the median of the curve moves away from the edge of the range.

A poisson distribution is lopsided, and therefore should have nonsymmetrical error bars around the median

 

[TheNewYorker]

I like Cruz. He just seems like an honest guy all around, from his voice, to his looks and facial expressions. His eyes aren't even beady, at all.

I think it's just pure coincidence he adopted a lot of positions Rand campaigned on.

 

[carlton]

I like Cruz. He just seems like an honest guy all around, from his voice, to his looks and facial expressions. His eyes aren't even beady, at all.

I think it's just pure coincidence he adopted a lot of positions Rand campaigned on.

Lol, subtle are you

 

[Crashland]

I like Cruz. He just seems like an honest guy all around, from his voice, to his looks and facial expressions. His eyes aren't even beady, at all.

I think it's just pure coincidence he adopted a lot of positions Rand campaigned on.

His facial expressions scream false concern IMO, but I'd take him over Trump. Problem with Cruz though is he's going to lose to Hillary.

 

[hells_unicorn]

So essentially Rand is tied for 6th place in a field of 14 candidates with about 50 days to go before the first vote is cast, and is within the margin of error with Jeb. Forgive me for not contemplating suicide.

Right now what I'm more interested in is whether or not Trump is going to go nuclear on Cruz for pulling so far ahead of him. I had thought that this would be the outcome of Carson pulling ahead of Trump, and while there was a fair degree of trash talking on Trump's part, Carson has essentially been sinking himself with his wet carrot personality and goofy autobiographical accounts. If Trump does end up going ape-shit on Cruz and it ends up hurting both of them, it will be an excellent opportunity for a more reasonable candidate. I still have not shut the door on the possibility that Rand could pull a John Kerry 2004 and simply benefit by the rest of the field tearing each other apart, though it's naturally not guaranteed.

 

[Badger Paul]

"Rand today probably has at least 4000 in just students to caucus for him, if not more. "

Does the campaign have the names of 4,000 or more students in Iowa who have signed up pledging they will caucus for Rand? Hmm?

 

[kbs021]

"Rand today probably has at least 4000 in just students to caucus for him, if not more. "

Does the campaign have the names of 4,000 or more students in Iowa who have signed up pledging they will caucus for Rand? Hmm?

Yes They do. They literally have the names, number, email, and probably address of over 4k students in Iowa.

 

[derek4ever]

So essentially Rand is tied for 6th place in a field of 14 candidates with about 50 days to go before the first vote is cast, and is within the margin of error with Jeb. Forgive me for not contemplating suicide.

Right now what I'm more interested in is whether or not Trump is going to go nuclear on Cruz for pulling so far ahead of him. I had thought that this would be the outcome of Carson pulling ahead of Trump, and while there was a fair degree of trash talking on Trump's part, Carson has essentially been sinking himself with his wet carrot personality and goofy autobiographical accounts. If Trump does end up going ape-shit on Cruz and it ends up hurting both of them, it will be an excellent opportunity for a more reasonable candidate. I still have not shut the door on the possibility that Rand could pull a John Kerry 2004 and simply benefit by the rest of the field tearing each other apart, though it's naturally not guaranteed.

Winner, winner, chicken dinner! That's the same conclusion I reached! That's why I think it's good that Cruz is leading in IA (we'd love to see Rand blow the field out of the water but it is what it is for now) and there are 2 reasons for this: first, he and Trump were buddies and didn't attack each other up until now, but now that Cruz is seen as a serious threat to Trump in IA (and other states), there's no helping it that they will go nuclear on each other and second, anybody who's beating Trump in any state leaves that door open just a jar for a competitive field, where the one who plays its cards closest to its chest will end up winning the whole jig (this is where Cruz was up until now and his strategy might backfire, for Rand's benefit)