CNN Poll of Polls: Clinton tops Trump by 10

[Zippyjuan]

They are polling a greater proportion of democrats compared to the 2012 voter turn out. The CNN poll has a 7.1% bias, the fox poll a 9.2% bias, the ABC 5.3% bias.

https://www.longroom.com/polls/

Are they? Does it matter? They give a weight based on the percent of the registered voters. If one third is registered Republican then the answers given by Republican voters count as one third of the final statistics- even if say Republicans were 50% of the people they contacted still only count as half of the finals- not half. That is OK- many people do not understand how it works. But you can learn here: http://people.howstuffworks.com/political-polling4.htm

Weighting Poll Results

As we discussed earlier, randomness is important to achieving a representative sample of the population. By using random dialing software, political polling organizations try to reach a perfectly randomized sample of respondents. But there are limits to the effectiveness of random dialing. For example, women and older Americans tend to answer the phone more often, which throws off the sex and age ratios of the sample. Instead of relying exclusively on random number dialing, political pollsters take the extra step of adjusting or weighting results to match the demographic profile of likely voters.

Notice that we said "likely voters," not the entire voting age population of the United States. That's an important distinction. If pollsters wanted to weight their results to match the entire voting age population, then they would adjust the results to match the latest census data. First they would distribute results geographically, keeping more responses from more populous states and cities. Then they would adjust results to match the demographic distributions of sex, age and race in America.

More about polling at the link.

Don't agree with the poll results? The poll must be skewed or fixed. Agree with the results? They are perfectly accurate.

Your link is biased. They don't use any weighting (well, actually they add their own form of weighting to get the results they want). They also claim to have accurately predicted the past three elections when they have only been in existence since early this year.
https://www.longroom.com/polls/methodology/

All polls will have errors and bias but taken together, they do usually present a pretty realistic picture.

How confident is Long Room in their numbers?

What is the earliest that you can tell who will be the next president?

The day after the election.

 

[69360]

I think Trump will lose to Clinton double digits.

 

[CPUd]

Related:
Donald Trump’s poll numbers are so bad his supporters are making up new ones

 

[r3volution 3.0]

I think Trump will lose to Clinton double digits.

...and by about 2:1 in the electoral college.

 

[Jamesiv1]

We all just need to poll harder!!!!

 

[AuH20]

I think Trump will lose to Clinton double digits.

Not with 40% of Bernie voters abstaining or deviating from Clinton. The metrics for Clinton are bad, despite every news organization pulling her dead carcasss up the hill. There is no tangible enthusiasm (see lackluster attendance at her rallies and little to no social media excitement comparatively) and a major schism on her side. Conversely, Trump has alienated roughly 20% of the Republicans, but he can at least compensate with a new voter pool.

 

[enhanced_deficit]

Don't agree with the poll results? The poll must be skewed or fixed. Agree with the results? They are perfectly accurate.

Good point.

New Reuters Poll Shows Hillary Lead Suddenly At Less Than 3%
08-06-2016

Trump At Over 30 Percent With Black Vote In North Carolina
08-04-2016

I think Trump will lose to Clinton double digits.

Ok. I think Hillary will lose by single digits margin.

Let's revisit this topic after mother of all polls in Nov.

 

[CPUd]

State-by-State Probabilities

To forecast each party’s chance of winning the presidency, our model calculates win probabilities for each state. In addition to the latest state polls, our forecast incorporates a state’s past election results and national polling.

The table below shows our model’s estimate for Democrats and Republicans in all 50 states and Washington, D.C. We have put the states into five groups based on their voting history relative to the nation since 2004.

Our estimates in states that tend to vote ...

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html

 

[AuH20]

Enthusiasm wins elections, but the vote counters have something to say.

Hillary with all her influential minions and slanted poll methodology, still can't push enthusiasm with the global village folks.

 

[twomp]

Notice how the Trump trolls cry that the polls are wrong now but when Trump was leading the polls, it was correct. The MSM and the establishment only wanted to rig the polls in the general election, they didn't want to rig it during the nomination process right? They wanted to wait till more eyes were on the the election then start rigging it...