Clinton vs. Trump A Dead Heat

[RPfan1992]

A recent Rasmussen poll (unfortunately, private data) shows Hillary Clinton 37% and Donald Trump 36% in a statistical dead heat. However, if you look at the actual data as presented by Rasmussen you find:

[…] Seventy-five percent (75%) of Democrats back Clinton, up five points from October. Trump draws support from 63% of Republicans, virtually unchanged from the previous survey. Unaffiliated voters prefer Trump 36% to 25%, but 29% of these voters like some other candidate. These findings also are similar to the October survey. If Trump is tied with Hillary and yet only 63% of identified Republicans support Trump this means a larger portion of Republicans are “non-Trump”, than Democrats who are “non-Hillary”. Here’s the math as presented which shows how centrist and dominant Donald Trump’s appeal is.

Example if each population (Dem, Rep, Indy) is 1,000:

Hillary gets 750 (75%) Dems + 250 (25%) Indies = 1,000 total
Trump gets 630 (63%) Repubs + 360 (36%) Indies = 990 total

The 12% deficit between Trump and Clinton from party loyalists (75% vs 63%) is made up by a similar percentage advantage toward Trump of “unaffiliated” or independent voters.

Trump overcomes any statistical deficit with the support of independents who favor him by 11 points (36 to 25) over Hillary.

However, yet again, think about the 37% of Republicans NOT supporting Trump in a two-way race. These anti-Trump Republicans you can essentially define against all previous identifiers, outlines and articles as Jeb’s professionally republican GOPe coalition.

This electoral reality is quite stark when you think about it for several reasons:

♦ Point #1) It is virtually identical to Ronald Reagan’s 1979 coalition when he told the professionally republican he was going to identify and target ‘conservative’ democrats and ‘conservative’ independents to join his campaign. In 1978/79 the ‘Old-Boy-Network’ within the GOP apparatus was furious at Reagan for reaching out to non-Republican members to join the party.

♦ Point #2) Team CLINTON must be mortified at the reality of this poll because it shows Trump crushing Clinton with independents. Even with Hillary Clinton carrying a dominant 75% of the vote support from her own party she still can’t beat Trump – because Trump destroys her with Independents.

♦ Point #3) If the GOPe finally concede they have lost to Trump and a similar percentage of Republicans vote to support Trump as support Clinton, the race won’t even be close – IT WOULD BE A WIPE OUT. Trump would be ahead by 8-10% ! The general election result would be Reaganesque.

♦ Point #4) The Professionally Republican, the members of the Good-Old-Boys-Club, are elitist moonbats refusing to support the frontrunner. If the roles were reversed, if it were their boy Jeb! in the lead for six months, they would be demanding all other opponents drop out and support “their guy”.

http://theconservativetreehouse.com...-republican-loyalists-undecideds/#more-110278

 

[TheNewYorker]

Hillary would mop the floor with Trump in the general. I don't know one democrat that won't vote for Hillary to keep trump out of the Whitehouse, but I do know many republicans that absolutely won't vote for trump no matter what.

 

[CPUd]

LOL they are trying to say the 37% of GOP not voting Trump are all Jeb supporters. I think this is the same site that had that weird post about Jeb vote splitting.

 

[hells_unicorn]

Hillary would mop the floor with Trump in the general. I don't know one democrat that won't vote for Hillary to keep trump out of the Whitehouse, but I do know many republicans that absolutely won't vote for trump no matter what.

I know a few Republicans that would vote for Hillary before voting for Trump, and I know precisely ZERO Democrats that would support Trump, including the small handful I know who hate the Clintons and are backing Sanders just out of spite for them. This website is kinda kooky too, as CPUd stated, there is no way that 37% of the GOP is supporting Jeb when you look at how horrible his approval rating is within the party. It would have been smarter had this website just identified them as establishment GOP or maybe Rubio/Christie supporters.

 

[Sola_Fide]

How many Trump pumpers are still allowed to post here? 10 or so?

 

[carlton]

Rasmussen has a C- rating from 538.

 

[hells_unicorn]

How many Trump pumpers are still allowed to post here? 10 or so?

Too many.

 

[Zippyjuan]

At Real Clear Politics, their average of polls of Trump vs Clinton has Clinton ahead 47% to 41.5%. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...s/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

Fox News poll has it Clinton 49%, Trump 38%.

 

[mrsat_98]

How many Trump pumpers are still allowed to post here? 10 or so?

Hitlery or bust.

 

[DevilsAdvocate]

Trump will gain a stronger coalition after he wins the nomination. 63% of Republicans support Trump, expect that to increase. He'll get all kinds of endorsements. As more terrorist attacks happen and horror stories about migrants trickle in, his support will spike.

I think anyone who predicts Hillary beating Trump is a fool. Trump is on another level.

 

[Peace&Freedom]

One thing's for sure, if Trump and the Clintons are going to square off over the next few weeks, it gives Republican voters an advance look at how the two factions fare in actual battle. It's a big risk for Trump that he didn't have to take on, since if the rank and file don't like what they see in January, it could obviously convince them to vote for someone else in the primaries in February going forward.

But if they DO like how Trump handles Hillary, and he starts to win most poll match-ups against her over the next month, it serves to shut up his critics on the matter. I think Hillary has always been deeply overrated as a national politician (which is why she's always been so over-protected by the MSM), but the January face-off should at least settle the question about Trump's ability to beat her.

 

[klamath]

Trump will gain a stronger coalition after he wins the nomination. 63% of Republicans support Trump, expect that to increase. He'll get all kinds of endorsements. As more terrorist attacks happen and horror stories about migrants trickle in, his support will spike.

I think anyone who predicts Hillary beating Trump is a fool. Trump is on another level.

All I can say as republican that has voted republican 30 years if it is close between Clinton and Trump I would vote for Clinton. I have never felt so much revulsion even to McCain who I didn't even vote for but I have never voted democrat.

 

[DevilsAdvocate]

All I can say as republican that has voted republican 30 years if it is close between Clinton and Trump I would vote for Clinton. I have never felt so much revulsion even to McCain who I didn't even vote for but I have never voted democrat.

What are you talking about klamath, are you trolling? Clinton is totally incompetent. I suppose if you like bankruptcy and people with violent, low IQ genes pouring into the country to insure a permanent Democrat supermajority....then Clinton is your gal.

 

[cajuncocoa]

If it's between those two, I'll abstain. I see little difference. Sure, Hillary would be bad in many ways, but Donald would be just as bad in others. It would be an impossible choice.

 

[tod evans]

What are you talking about klamath, are you trolling? Clinton is totally incompetent. I suppose if you like bankruptcy and people with violent, low IQ genes pouring into the country to insure a permanent Democrat supermajority....then Clinton is your gal.

I'm one of those folks whose genes have proven to have been the most violent in history......White.

More wars have been waged by my forefathers than by any other race, more countries and cultures sacked for anything worth having.

Calling Mexicans "violent" is a joke.

If you want to discuss actual behavior today that might be a different story...........

 

[The Gold Standard]

In that scenario, unless Ron dusts off the campaign one more time in a third party, I won't be voting at all.

 

[klamath]

What are you talking about klamath, are you trolling? Clinton is totally incompetent. I suppose if you like bankruptcy and people with violent, low IQ genes pouring into the country to insure a permanent Democrat supermajority....then Clinton is your gal.

My question, are YOU trolling even trying to imply Trump is better the Clinton?

 

[klamath]

In fact I might start a Republicans Against Trump group if he wins the nomination. The flyers that will go out to every non white voters.

Trumps vision for non white America!

Coming to non white households in America​

Don't let the Hausfraus elect the second one in a century.

Paid for by Republicans against National Fascism​

 

[Peace&Freedom]

In that scenario, unless Ron dusts off the campaign one more time in a third party, I won't be voting at all.

What about the LP, or CP? Do those here who reject both Trump and Hillary if the major party face off comes down to them, or keeps coming down to people like them, have ANY other suggestions for the future, that don't have Paul as a last name? If Rand's campaign fails, does this movement end for future cycles, if a Paul isn't running? Then how are we any better than the Perot movement was?

Rather than become (or resolve to be) a cult of personality, perhaps we should be farming for new national liberty candidates for the 2020 and beyond time frames who can overcome the obstacles Ron and Rand apparently could not? Say, Judge Napolitano, actor Kurt Russell, billionaire Peter Thiel, whomever? Is the more complete answer to be found in running a major celebrity, or our own billionaire, or something else? Or are we just afraid to name new possibilities?

For now, the fact remains, if Trump gets the Republican nomination, it will be strategically useful to us. If it happens, he will have broken the lock the establishment has over steering the major party primary system, broken the Koch/Adelson et al mega-donor coronation matrix, broken the major media's chokehold on dictating who the frontrunner is supposed to be and what (or how) issues are supposed to be discussed. He will have mapped out the grammar (minus his personality issues) for how to accomplish this, for future waves of REAL alternative candidates to follow. This will be valuable progress over the elite controlled system we have now.

 

[DevilsAdvocate]

In fact I might start a Republicans Against Trump group if he wins the nomination. The flyers that will go out to every non white voters.

Trumps vision for non white America!

Coming to non white households in America​

Don't let the Hausfraus elect the second one in a century.

Paid for by Republicans against National Fascism​

Do you realize that whites have lost their majority in 4 states (including mine)? Within 20 years, it will be 30 states. Within 50 years, it will be the entire country. Their nation is being seized from them from under their feet. Their children and their grandchildren will not have a homeland.

Hispanics have the whole of South America and Latin America to work with, but now they're getting North America as well. The entire land mass is becoming homogeneous.

It's strange how people like you consider it noble and just to champion the rights of Hispanics and blacks, but when whites try to safeguard their heritage it's evil and racist.