Can Ron Paul Win New Hampshire?

[me3]

http://blogcritics.org/archives/2007/12/30/031015.php

Excerpt:

Anything less than 2nd place in New Hampshire won't be startling enough to promote him to the status of top contender, and even getting second might not be enough. The way the primaries are structured there aren't really any other good opportunities for Paul to pull off that kind of surprise win, and none of the other early primary states except for maybe South Carolina are particularly friendly to Paul's message. If Paul doesn't make the top three in New Hampshire then it might be time to drop out, or mend fences and start campaigning for Vice President.

A win in New Hampshire might lead to an endorsement from libertarian-leaning South Carolina governor Mark Sanford which could add more momentum and result in a second primary win in South Carolina. Two early primary wins would give Paul enough legitimacy to also win other liberal or libertarian oriented states like California, Texas and Arizona. If he wins those three states then he actually is a real contender and would enter the convention with at least a quarter of the delegates, and no one would be laughing at him, that's for sure. It would certainly make for one hell of a Republican convention if nothing else.

So yes, I do think there's a small but real chance of Ron Paul winning the Republican primary in New Hampshire. If that does happen, then all bets are off and it could lead almost anywhere, even to the White House. I may be crossing my fingers and hoping, but I won't be holding my breath. It's still a long shot.

 

[jonhowe]

A very fair analysis. Thats why Im going up there this week to MAKE SURE we get NH!

 

[Concerned Supporter]

simple: no.

 

[Ozwest]

simple: no.

Simple question: Why?

 

[Gordon]

simple: no.

You're talking out your arse.

 

[Concerned Supporter]

because i believe the unpolled support wont be enough...

 

[Gordon]

because i believe the unpolled support wont be enough...

Sod off

 

[Luft97]

You're talking out your arse.

LOL tell em Gordon.

 

[Concerned Supporter]

telling people off won't make your dreams come true

 

[Gordon]

telling people off won't make your dreams come true

So you really are that desperate.

 

[NocturnalC]

Concerned Supporter: I can see you are very concerned.

 

[Gordon]

Concerned Supporter: I can see you are very concerned.

He's concerned that he won't ever get laid.

 

[Concerned Supporter]

So you really are that desperate.

i gave an answer with a reason why i doubt he will win NH

you told me to f-off

good job buddy

 

[NocturnalC]

Who are you concerned for?

 

[Gordon]

i gave an answer with a reason why i doubt he will win NH

you told me to f-off

good job buddy

No, I told you to sod off. There is a big difference.

Yes I could see your answer was smacking with cognitive drivel.

 

[Concerned Supporter]

Who are you concerned for?

ah, good question. the roots machine.

No, I told you to sod off. There is a big difference.

Yes I could see your answer was smacking with cognitive drivel.

pessimism should not be confused with a want for failure.

 

[Gordon]

ah, good question. the roots machine.

pessimism should not be confused with a want for failure.

LoL Ohh God, Nothing like cogent, well-reasoned, articulate, intelligent, discourse. But then if you are not capable of that...

 

[Concerned Supporter]

LoL Ohh God, Nothing like cogent, well-reasoned, articulate, intelligent, discourse. But then if you are not capable of that...

i think its fair to say all the angles have been hashed out about possible success in NH. growing support which might continue with a good showing in iowa. then you throw in another X factor of the unpolled support.

at this point its all personal opinion as to what will happen.

im pessimistic and you are optimistic (and rude).

lets leave it at that.

 

[noztnac]

He can win!

 

[Chadd Murray]

He won't win NH, I'm doubtful about second... but I still think 3rd could make a big enough ripple. Perhaps if he gets a solid 3rd in Iowa he will pull off a good 2nd, that would be my hope.

Realistically I think 4th in Iowa 3rd in NH is about where he'll end up, but I hope not.