Can Ron Paul win in Iowa? (Answer in thread...)

[wormyguy]

This might not be as difficult a question to answer as it sounds. However, it must be split into two parts:

1. How many votes does Ron Paul need to win?

Here are the results of the 2008 Republican caucus in Iowa:

Mike Huckabee.......40,841 34.4%
Mitt Romney.........29,949 25.2
Fred D. Thompson....15,904 13.4
John McCain.........15,559 13.1
Ron Paul............11,817 10.0
Rudolph W. Giuliani..4,097 3.5
Duncan Hunter..........524 0.4
Tom Tancredo.............5 0.0

So for Mike Huckabee's (reasonably) safe victory, he needed about 41,000 votes. 2012 will probably have higher turnout, both due to natural population growth and the fact that there isn't a Democratic contest at the same time. Lets say that the magic number will be 45,000 votes.

2. So, can Ron Paul get the "magic number?"

I'm going to make the following assumption here: Anyone who votes for the Libertarian Party is a potential Ron Paul voter.

That said, how many people will vote for the Libertarian Party in Iowa?

In 2010, 25,290 people voted for the Libertarian Party candidate for Senate. For the Secretary of State election last year, the Libertarian Party received 33,854 votes. The best showing for the Libertarian Party ever in a statewide election was the 2002 State Auditor election, in which the Libertarian Party received 49,206 votes.

You may note that that last number is higher than the "magic number" I just mentioned.

Therefore, we can conclude that Ron Paul definitely can win the caucus, but his campaign must:

1. Identify Libertarian voters in Iowa.

2. Ensure that they are registered as Republicans and that they attend the caucus.

3. Unify them behind Ron Paul.

 

[The Dark Knight]

Interesting. I agree with most of what you said but I think 40,000 votes will win. Perry/Bachmann/Romney/Paul will all be going for a win with a split vote. If one of those candidates gets 40,000 votes they will likely win.

 

[wormyguy]

Interesting. I agree with most of what you said but I think 40,000 votes will win. Perry/Bachmann/Romney/Paul will all be going for a win with a split vote. If one of those candidates gets 40,000 votes they will likely win.

35,000 would likely be enough to win, but I'm highballing it out of an abundance of caution.

 

[RP Supporter]

The higher turnout might be a net plus for us, since many of those voters are either A. Young and newly registered or B. Independents or conservative Dems that were swayed by Obama last time. I'm not sure how significant this audience will be, but either way, the new turnout should help Paul more then any other candidate.

I also think targeting the Libertarian audience is useful, but I'm not sure if most of them would be willing to change their registration. You'd get some sure, but most of them might think they do more good in their party and refuse to join one of the big two, even for a good cause. And of course, if the media gets wind of this I can imagine the stories.

IMHO it's something the campaign or grassroots should look into, but it should not be the main focus. I'd say main focus should be figuring out which groups we do best in, and focusing our effort on them. Do we do great with college students? Go to or near events that cater to them. Same with any other group.

 

[wormyguy]

Iowa doesn't allow voters to register as Libertarians. (They only have Republican, Democratic, and No Party Affiliation).

 

[RP Supporter]

Iowa doesn't allow voters to register as Libertarians. (They only have Republican, Democratic, and No Party Affiliation).

Hmm... well that's good, but my point still applies. Many third party voters I've talked to refuse to get their hands dirty and vote for candidates in the big two they even agree with. But it's definitely worth a try. Maybe run an ad campaign targeting Iowans who "like" the Libertarian party on facebook? (I'd be interested to see how many of these voters are already committed to us.)

 

[wormyguy]

Well obviously anyone who's voting for the LP in an election isn't one of those non-voting types. I think the biggest difficulty would be with the ones who are all like "I'm not voting for Ron Paul because he's pro-life!"

 

[1836]

This might not be as difficult a question to answer as it sounds. However, it must be split into two parts:

1. How many votes does Ron Paul need to win?

Here are the results of the 2008 Republican caucus in Iowa:

Mike Huckabee.......40,841 34.4%
Mitt Romney.........29,949 25.2
Fred D. Thompson....15,904 13.4
John McCain.........15,559 13.1
Ron Paul............11,817 10.0
Rudolph W. Giuliani..4,097 3.5
Duncan Hunter..........524 0.4
Tom Tancredo.............5 0.0

So for Mike Huckabee's (reasonably) safe victory, he needed about 41,000 votes. 2012 will probably have higher turnout, both due to natural population growth and the fact that there isn't a Democratic contest at the same time. Lets say that the magic number will be 45,000 votes.

2. So, can Ron Paul get the "magic number?"

I'm going to make the following assumption here: Anyone who votes for the Libertarian Party is a potential Ron Paul voter.

That said, how many people will vote for the Libertarian Party in Iowa?

In 2010, 25,290 people voted for the Libertarian Party candidate for Senate. For the Secretary of State election last year, the Libertarian Party received 33,854 votes. The best showing for the Libertarian Party ever in a statewide election was the 2002 State Auditor election, in which the Libertarian Party received 49,206 votes.

You may note that that last number is higher than the "magic number" I just mentioned.

Therefore, we can conclude that Ron Paul definitely can win the caucus, but his campaign must:

1. Identify Libertarian voters in Iowa.

2. Ensure that they are registered as Republicans and that they attend the caucus.

3. Unify them behind Ron Paul.

Sorry, but your analysis is off; you make the assumption that most people who vote in a general election are the same kind of folks who will caucus. By and large they are not.

You also make a ton of other implicit assumptions about how easy it is to get hold of these people. So where are you going to find them? I would highly doubt that the people who voted LP in the Senate elections are all LP voters. A better measure would be how many registered LP there are in Iowa.

But you would have no idea how to find these folks who pull the trigger in the ballot booth; it is a secret ballot.

 

[MomsBasement]

The fact that he only got 11,000 votes in 2008, which consisted of any libertarians who wanted to vote for him at that time AND any republicans, is the best piece of data we have. All those tons of libertarians didn't show up last time, and there is nothing to indicate that they will show up this time. We are still polling terribly in Iowa, around 5% most of the time. It is pretty frustrating considering he got 10% in the actual vote in '08 and is now polling below that with his newfound "credibility."

 

[johnrocks]

I imagine some of the LP vote is cross over; I'm a Republican yet vote LP a lot; but I think your onto something here. Not only libertarians but anti war Democrats/independents who may have voted D last time.

 

[Oukvekpwv]

hXXp://www.coopersmallergovernment.com/

That is Eric Cooper's website.. he ran for govenor of IA last election, i believe, either as a libertarian or at least a self professed libertarian (ill have to look into the whole registering thing) didn't get elected, the republican nominee did..

He is a Ron Paul supporter, the 4th of july float thing i posted the thread about, he was one of the lead organizers for it.. thought I'd throw that out there for anyone interested..