By all accounts....We have WON Washington (in delegates)!

[enrique]

Great Post - Super summary

This is the best summary I have read on RPF this year. This is absolutely correct and spot on.

As someone involved in my local GOP since 2008 I'd like to add that becoming a delegate is much harder than people here make it out to be. Most often, people look to become delegates for party reasons, not for a candidate (this does change in philosophical shift years like with Reagan/Pat Robertson/ Paul (?)). The party members are playing for a team, not a candidate. They will definitely collude with others just to prevent the people with an agenda because they don't like their apple cart upset.

Example: Ron Paul loses the straw poll (gets 18%) but cleans up in the delegate selection to the county convention (gets 47% - 32% - 15% - 5%). It would be easy to say, "Hey, we're going to get 48% of the delegates to the national convention." But it is entirely likely that those 52% will work together to prevent any of your 48% from advancing. And if the numbers are different, how sure are you that all of your 48% or say 55% will show? So the process is much, much more perilous than it might seem on the surface. The EASIEST part is actually getting selected a precinct delegate in this process.

Again, that is not to say that the mission is foolhardy or impossible, simply that it is more difficult than people here make it out to be sometimes.

Here is how I understand it:

1. Not all states have their delegates matched via the vote.
2. Usually the states that don't are caucus states.
3. Caucus states normally require that people volunteer to become "lower level" delegates, who essentially vote each other to become higher level delegates, whom ultimately vote for the nominee.
4. Most americans do not know this, so if you don't look like your in first place, you don't get money or media coverage, even if you get all the delegates
5. At some point, you need money and media coverage to stay relevant.
6. The paul campaign is focusing on caucus states, because they realized if we ever had a chance at this, its through caucus states. For ron paul, who has a passionate base actually willing to stay after the vote, we can win the delegates for cheaper, and without winning the state. It doesn't mean we are gaming the system, it just means it is the strategy that could work for ron paul, given our limits. Obviously its no guarantee.
7. Normally campaigns ignore the delegate process, because most states assign people to become delegates if no one takes the slot. Usually the "state" selected delegates vote via the straw poll whether they have to or not.
8. Ron paul supporters are filling up the delegate slots in caucus states (mostly). We are able to do this because we are pretty much the only campaign in the last 40 years that would actually fair better with such a strategy, given our makeup and the Gop makeup. The other campaigns would have to spend much more money, and simply don't have that calibre of organization. Im not saying other campaigns aren't organized, only they don't have the kind you need to do what ron paul supporters are doing.
9. No one can win with just unbound delegates. There is no guarantee that you will get them until the convention, when votes are cast.
10. Because there are 4 candidates splitting the delegates, this convention might be contested.
11. If romney does not get 1144 delegates on the first vote, most all (if not all) of the delegates previously bound are set free, and vote for whom they want.
12. The ron paul campaign is making sure to have ron paul supporters contesting for delegate slots and in almost every state, even the states where delegates are bound.
13. If they campaign is not lying, and ground RUMOURS are true, we currently are second with delegates... Rommney will not get a majority when this is over. such estimates are projections.
14. if rumors are not true, rommney still probably won't get all the delegates, as long as santorum (and maybe gingrich) stay in the race.


The Lesson:
Don't pretend winning a state "straw poll" isn't important. It is the life blood of any campaign. Its not impossible to win without a state, but expect hell to freeze over if that happens.

Don't think we are already toast. We still have a LONG way to go before this is over. We can win this.

Don't think this is easy, or that the odds are an even 50-50. they are not. this is an up hill battle.

The paul campaign is using an unconventional strategy, so using past nominations as a template, is not necessarily going to give you an accurate reading of where we stand.

Becareful of what the campaign and others tell you. Sometimes "good news" is "lets-get-our-hopes-up". But don't assume its impossible either. It is very possible we have gotten most of the delegates out of the caucus states. It is very possible we are on Romney's heels. It is very possible we can make up that difference with unbound delegates on a second vote. It is also very possible this is all feel-good-bull-!@#$. This takes a bit of dialectic thinking.

If you give up now, we won't win. If you go about calling B.S. on the delegate counts we get from paul, and give up... would you forgive yourself at the slightest chance that it wasn't B.S, and that if supporters kept marching on we could have won?

Personlly I have decided to
A) not get my hopes up
B) NOT GIVE UP.

C) Identify that if there is a chance, or a path for ron paul I think we owe it to him to see it through, rain or shine.

This is all just my understanding. and when i say "you" I am making a general statement toward the reader, not specifically the person i quoted. lol.

 

[tslau]

What I don't understand is, how are the delegates decided in the primaries? I know most primaries assign delegates proportionally according to the popular vote, but how is it actually determined WHO these delegates are?

 

[cindy25]

I would hope that the money would go to Congressional races but I doubt it.

Unfortunately it is much better to focus on Congressional races then the campaign at this point, but instead there is less focus on the campaign and none on the races.

and how would 25, or even 50 congressmen change anything?

 

[MooCowzRock]

What I don't understand is, how are the delegates decided in the primaries? I know most primaries assign delegates proportionally according to the popular vote, but how is it actually determined WHO these delegates are?

Depends on the states, but the delegates are usually on the ballots. They have to get a certain number of signatures to get on the ballot. They was we are capitalizing on these delegates, is if there are, say, 14 delegates available, we put in only 14 delegates on the ballot. That way, our supporters vote for all 14 that we have on there. Say Rick Santorum only has 4 delegates on there, then he is limited to a maximum of 4 delegates. Also, say if Mitt Romney has 28 delegates on there, the votes for his delegates are going to get split up too much for many of them to get enough votes. That way we get an edge on delegates in such primaries, though not quite as effectively as the caucus states.

 

[enrique]

What I don't understand is, how are the delegates decided in the primaries? I know most primaries assign delegates proportionally according to the popular vote, but how is it actually determined WHO these delegates are?

It's important to remember that each state has different rules. In Michigan, which has only bound delegates, the delegates are selected at the state convention after dividing into separate congressional district caucuses. So you select delegates to attend the CD district caucus at your county convention. In Michigan, our delegates are elected every 2 years on the primary ballot. The process of becoming a congressional district delegate is more about who you know than what you believe. Being a statewide at-large delegate would be even more challenging. And

 

[Tobias2dope]

This is true

I wish more of Pauls supporters understood how the system worked and the import of the delegate process > straw poll.
Because honestly if the grassroots stick with Paul through the whole race we'll be solid. We're making good progress but some of the 'down in the dumps' stuff I hear concerns me that more supporters than should are still listening to the MSM narrative and buying the whole "we need a straw poll win" thing. Yes it would be beneficial to have, yes I'll keep working to get one because of how it could help no it is not make or brake when we're racking up these delegates this way.

the grassroots calling effort did an amazing job and if the system is spread to the upcoming caucus states we can grab some very strong showings, expand or delegate lead over Newt and Rick and who knows maybe even pull out a straw poll bonus.

If we stop believing in and fighting for Liberty because the MSM tells us we can't win... well what's left after that?

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/03/01/ron-paul-s-delegate-strategy.html <-- Winning

Honestly , this whole thing is totally engineered by the media.

Does anyone really believe that real normal people would actually vote for any of the three stooges without being forced to e.g. "got to beat Obama no matter what".

The fact is that good people like us who actually give a damn , have the power to change things for the netter and the media will not have real change so they're trying to shut this movement down.

Trust me this whole thing is a massive creation by the media and it isn't worth getting upset over because in the real world we are WINNING !!!!!!!

 

[Adam West]

Unbelievable. While Rome burns. Stupid Americams debate the :Morning after Pill. If you didn't have all those scary weapons, everyone would laugh at you. Instead we fear you. Nobody respects you. The gloss is worn away..

My apologies to the true Patriots still left.

 

[fatjohn]

To the optimists, please point to me a precedent of a nominee that lost the popular vote for the first ten state elections of his party.
If not point to me a nominee that lost the popular vote of the first five. The first three?

Perception is eveything, and to most americans Ron is perceived as (to put it bluntly) a loser. Sheep don't vote for the losing team.

 

[idiom]

I think Bush and Obama have helped people to understand that the popular vote doesn't count for anything. It never has.

We don't need the popular vote on a technical level, we need it on a morale level. Either we find a way to ouright win a state *soon* or we find a way to boost morale without it.

 

[SCOTUSman]

To the optimists, please point to me a precedent of a nominee that lost the popular vote for the first ten state elections of his party.
If not point to me a nominee that lost the popular vote of the first five. The first three?

Perception is eveything, and to most americans Ron is perceived as (to put it bluntly) a loser. Sheep don't vote for the losing team.

Obama lost to Clinton overall in the popular vote, won the nomination.

 

[ross11988]

Depends on the states, but the delegates are usually on the ballots. They have to get a certain number of signatures to get on the ballot. They was we are capitalizing on these delegates, is if there are, say, 14 delegates available, we put in only 14 delegates on the ballot. That way, our supporters vote for all 14 that we have on there. Say Rick Santorum only has 4 delegates on there, then he is limited to a maximum of 4 delegates. Also, say if Mitt Romney has 28 delegates on there, the votes for his delegates are going to get split up too much for many of them to get enough votes. That way we get an edge on delegates in such primaries, though not quite as effectively as the caucus states.

Exactly, I can tell you for a fact from what I am seeing in PA that NO OTHER CAMPAIGN has the coordination that we have. In my congressional district alone we had 6 delegates, including myself, that got the required signatures and were all on the ballot. In PA you are only allowed to vote for 3 delegates on the ballot so myself and 2 other people gave up our delegatecy to the people that had better position on the ballot, but the non Ron Paul delegate candidates are all divided on support, no organization and do not have the ballot position.

 

[tslau]

To the optimists, please point to me a precedent of a nominee that lost the popular vote for the first ten state elections of his party.
If not point to me a nominee that lost the popular vote of the first five. The first three?

Perception is eveything, and to most americans Ron is perceived as (to put it bluntly) a loser. Sheep don't vote for the losing team.

Ummm, how about EVERY TIME there was a brokered convention and the dark horse won?

 

[MozoVote]

I think the Media is causing the confusion. Good ol' Wolf Blitzer and his cohorts dwell on the straw poll votes instead of the Delegates. And i'll tell you something else. I think people are genuinly confused over the fact there are 3 different types of delegates. We have your County Delegates,... and if your lucky, you can become a State delegate,... and if your really really lucky, you can be a National delegate... These terms are never explained or separated out on the TEEEEVEEEE.

I certainly sense this in the N.C. discussions. Our own people get confused about this distinction and I'm sure many others do as well. The good news is that in N.C. the party participation is so weak, that elections are formalities at the county level, and precinct elections are almost unheard of. You don't even have to go to district in order to vote at state. Just be at the county convention (which is usually the same day as the precinct meetings).

The hardest thing, is getting people to give up a nice springtime Saturday morning to pay $10 and listen to some party speeches, plus the gas and hotels and $35 fee to attend state convention in June.

 

[rpwi]

Great post Opinion!

Something to keep in mind is that while 1st place in the straw vote is best for media exposure and fundraising...2nd place isn't the end of the world...especially when it's Santorum we placed ahead of. The media is probably in shock...this candidate that they keep asking if he'll drop out of the race or run third party...got 25% of the vote and did better than Santorum who they had been yabbering all over?

 

[sailingaway]

To the optimists, please point to me a precedent of a nominee that lost the popular vote for the first ten state elections of his party.
If not point to me a nominee that lost the popular vote of the first five. The first three?

Perception is eveything, and to most americans Ron is perceived as (to put it bluntly) a loser. Sheep don't vote for the losing team.

Lincoln, Humphry.....

When was the last time we had a brokered convention?

When was the last time we had 15% 'real' unemployment as determined by a GOVERNMENT agency (I think it was CBO last week.) And shadow stats have it significantly higher.

 

[Feelgood]

Spin machine in full force.

These forums are just becoming pathetic.

WE FUCKING LOST GUYS! We beat Frothy by 1%!!! Using our own logic from other elections then Frothy and Paul tied for second! WE LOST!

Continue the spin cycle, seems to help you folks sleep better at night I guess.

 

[Matthew Zak]

There were a couple of money bombs before that week. In fact there was a few with the mini-ones. There was one for Carol's Bday, the anniversary, NOBP, and probably another one in there I am missing.

"Super Tuesday"

 

[ProBlue33]

Hard Total
Romney 118 5.16%
Santorum 17 0.74%
Newt 29 1.27%
Paul 8 0.35%

THIS

Going into Super Tuesday Romney only has 5% of hard delegates or 118, he needs 1144, so he has a very long way to go to win this.

 

[JK/SEA]

..to sum it up in this thread...

''Let it not be said we did nothing''

--Ron Paul

 

[MozoVote]

Spin? Paul got 1/4 of the vote in a 4 person field, with the usual media blackout. I won't speculate on delegates but it'll be more than 1/4 when all is said and done. It was a decent result by objective standards.