By all accounts....We have WON Washington (in delegates)!

[Anti Federalist]

Bluntly when it comes convention time those delegates to the national convention are the votes that pick the Nominee and what the popular vote is or was won't direct or alter that (tho some individuals may choose to be 'advised' by it when they vote).

OK, so we're going to do what I have been suggesting all along, drag the idiots along to freedom, whether they like it or not.

This I like.

 

[JK/SEA]

//

 

[Anti Federalist]

The fuck???

Please do us all a favor....

 

[JK/SEA]

release the Kracken!!!

 

[Ivash]

And that is all that matters! The straw poll has obviously lost 100% meaning when there is no set procedure, rules, etc. that is followed. This has made the straw poll ultra meaningless. With all the reports we have gotten today, even in the counties where we fell short in the straw poll, we have won the delegate count. We will send the most delegates to district conventions.....Washington is a bigger prize than Michigan.

One of the reasons why these things have meaning is because other people think they are important. Regardless if they follow rules or not, people will continue to believe that they have meaning.

 

[UMULAS]

Please do us all a favor...[mod edit]

That is why you are all going to be SO disappointed. And again..suicide is probably the best solution for most of you. Much better than a life of welfare and loneliness.

First_ Hello
Secound: Names? We have more than just a few delegates, we are currently placed 2nd in the delegate list and will be continuing especially throughout the race since in super tuesday, to have winner takes all the person need <50%. RP may not have won a state, but we are having dedication.
Third: We don't make up the delegate count, only does CNN and Fox does, we just go back to reality on proprtional delegates.
Fourth: RP was considered a joke in 08, but now he is more prepared.

 

[sailingaway]

The fuck???

banned on the first post. New record!!

 

[farrar]

What is this talk?

I keep hearing it over and over and it still makes no sense.

The people vote. Delegates are assigned according how people voted.

Are we really deluding ourselves (again) that just because an assigned delegate is a RP supporter that they are going to go against what the people voted for, what, in some states they are required by law to do, and that the GOP machine is going to allow that to happen?

Here is how I understand it:

1. Not all states have their delegates matched via the vote.
2. Usually the states that don't are caucus states.
3. Caucus states normally require that people volunteer to become "lower level" delegates, who essentially vote each other to become higher level delegates, whom ultimately vote for the nominee.
4. Most americans do not know this, so if you don't look like your in first place, you don't get money or media coverage, even if you get all the delegates
5. At some point, you need money and media coverage to stay relevant.
6. The paul campaign is focusing on caucus states, because they realized if we ever had a chance at this, its through caucus states. For ron paul, who has a passionate base actually willing to stay after the vote, we can win the delegates for cheaper, and without winning the state. It doesn't mean we are gaming the system, it just means it is the strategy that could work for ron paul, given our limits. Obviously its no guarantee.
7. Normally campaigns ignore the delegate process, because most states assign people to become delegates if no one takes the slot. Usually the "state" selected delegates vote via the straw poll whether they have to or not.
8. Ron paul supporters are filling up the delegate slots in caucus states (mostly). We are able to do this because we are pretty much the only campaign in the last 40 years that would actually fair better with such a strategy, given our makeup and the Gop makeup. The other campaigns would have to spend much more money, and simply don't have that calibre of organization. Im not saying other campaigns aren't organized, only they don't have the kind you need to do what ron paul supporters are doing.
9. No one can win with just unbound delegates. There is no guarantee that you will get them until the convention, when votes are cast.
10. Because there are 4 candidates splitting the delegates, this convention might be contested.
11. If romney does not get 1144 delegates on the first vote, most all (if not all) of the delegates previously bound are set free, and vote for whom they want.
12. The ron paul campaign is making sure to have ron paul supporters contesting for delegate slots and in almost every state, even the states where delegates are bound.
13. If they campaign is not lying, and ground RUMOURS are true, we currently are second with delegates... Rommney will not get a majority when this is over. such estimates are projections.
14. if rumors are not true, rommney still probably won't get all the delegates, as long as santorum (and maybe gingrich) stay in the race.


The Lesson:
Don't pretend winning a state "straw poll" isn't important. It is the life blood of any campaign. Its not impossible to win without a state, but expect hell to freeze over if that happens.

Don't think we are already toast. We still have a LONG way to go before this is over. We can win this.

Don't think this is easy, or that the odds are an even 50-50. they are not. this is an up hill battle.

The paul campaign is using an unconventional strategy, so using past nominations as a template, is not necessarily going to give you an accurate reading of where we stand.

Becareful of what the campaign and others tell you. Sometimes "good news" is "lets-get-our-hopes-up". But don't assume its impossible either. It is very possible we have gotten most of the delegates out of the caucus states. It is very possible we are on Romney's heels. It is very possible we can make up that difference with unbound delegates on a second vote. It is also very possible this is all feel-good-bull-!@#$. This takes a bit of dialectic thinking.

If you give up now, we won't win. If you go about calling B.S. on the delegate counts we get from paul, and give up... would you forgive yourself at the slightest chance that it wasn't B.S, and that if supporters kept marching on we could have won?

Personlly I have decided to
A) not get my hopes up
B) NOT GIVE UP.

C) Identify that if there is a chance, or a path for ron paul I think we owe it to him to see it through, rain or shine.

This is all just my understanding. and when i say "you" I am making a general statement toward the reader, not specifically the person i quoted. lol.

 

[enrique]

Arizona is incorrect - delegates are unbound

AZ is winner take all with bound delegates. We probably won't get any as Romney won the state, unless this goes to a brokered convention and the delegates become UNBOUND. In this case we may get some of them if RP supporters are organized.

Arizona are bound but not really bound by state rules. They traditionally vote in the first round for the one selected by the primary voters but are not technically bound.

 

[sailingaway]

Well, FFS, I was told that NYT, CNN, RCP, NPR and CBS stats were shit too, and that this was the only trustworthy accounting of delegates.

I AM taking that time, that's why I'm in this thread.

It is the BEST but I also told you it was an estimate and wrong. Opinionatedfool is right on process. I think he is optimistic on NV and maybe on CO, although our guys are trying, and started, likely with a plurality at the lower stage. where we don't have an outright MAJORITY the others tend to band to try to get rid of us. It is a process and the party machine tries to ax our people every step of the way. The important thing is overwhelming them with numbers in the first instance, (staying AFTER the straw poll to become delegates) and sticking with it at each level. Which is why our guys have a better chance, but the party is working on Romney's side and has a heavy fist on the scales. All the same, those are battles we just need to get through.

 

[PolicyReader]

OK, so we're going to do what I have been suggesting all along, drag the idiots along to freedom, whether they like it or not.

This I like.

shoulder to shoulder there are enough of us to do just that

 

[Anti Federalist]

banned on the first post. New record!!

Wow, I thought Fire11 had that stitched up.

Ban Hammah!

 

[Anti Federalist]

It is the BEST but I also told you it was an estimate and wrong. Opinionatedfool is right on process. I think he is optimistic on NV and maybe on CO, although our guys are trying, and started, likely with a plurality at the lower stage. where we don't have an outright MAJORITY the others tend to band to try to get rid of us. It is a process and the party machine tries to ax our people every step of the way. The important thing is overwhelming them with numbers in the first instance, (staying AFTER the straw poll to become delegates) and sticking with it at each level. Which is why our guys have a better chance, but the party is working on Romney's side and has a heavy fist on the scales. All the same, those are battles we just need to get through.

I've got a better understanding of it now.

I can understand not wanting to be blunt about we are doing, but that's what it took cut through the fog of politics.

 

[opinionatedfool]

Well, FFS, I was told that NYT, CNN, RCP, NPR and CBS stats were shit too, and that this was the only trustworthy accounting of delegates.

I AM taking that time, that's why I'm in this thread.

Sorry, I wasn't talking about you specifically. I was talking in broad terms. Most people don't understand how delegates work.

 

[opinionatedfool]

Arizona are bound but not really bound by state rules. They traditionally vote in the first round for the one selected by the primary voters but are not technically bound.

Oh, really! That is nice to know!! Hopefully there was good organization there!!

 

[opinionatedfool]

Because I was under the, apparently false, impression that people voted or caucused, and, based on who the people voted for, delegates were assigned, some more strictly bound to the voter's wishes, and other's not so much, who then in turn voted for the preferred candidate at the GOP convention.

What purpose did my NH vote for RP serve?

OK, so after further reading of your post, the hope is that this goes past the first vote at the convention.

Or, is the hope that enough delegates are RP people and the tell the voters and the GOP to cram it with walnuts and vote for RP at the convention, regardless of who the people voted for?

(If that's the case, I like it)

NH has BOUND delegates, so your vote did count in getting the 3 delegates we got in NH. Each state has a different way of assigning delegates. In some states, the popular vote is worthless. For example in Missouri, Santorum won the popular primary poll vote. This primary is completely worthless because NO delegates are awarded. They will also have a caucus. They caucus is where the delegates are assigned. The delegates that are assigned during this caucus are what will count in Missouri.

The strategy is to get as many UNBOUND delegates as possible as well as some BOUND delegates. We can get most of the UNBOUND delegates from the states that have them. We can also get them when people drop out. If this goes to a brokered convention, we also have to possibility of picking up delegates after the first round of voting (in most cases, some states have rules the bind delegates for more than one round) when delegates become UNBOUND. To get these UNBOUND delegates after the first round, we need to make sure that other candidates delegates are friendly to Ron Paul. This way, in subsequent rounds of voting we will have delegates that come our way. If this happens we could pick up enough delegates to meet the magic number of 1144 delegates and win!

 

[opinionatedfool]

It is the BEST but I also told you it was an estimate and wrong. Opinionatedfool is right on process. I think he is optimistic on NV and maybe on CO, although our guys are trying, and started, likely with a plurality at the lower stage. where we don't have an outright MAJORITY the others tend to band to try to get rid of us. It is a process and the party machine tries to ax our people every step of the way. The important thing is overwhelming them with numbers in the first instance, (staying AFTER the straw poll to become delegates) and sticking with it at each level. Which is why our guys have a better chance, but the party is working on Romney's side and has a heavy fist on the scales. All the same, those are battles we just need to get through.

Yes, you do have some good points. The numbers I estimated are assuming that we don't get cheated out of the system.

 

[PolicyReader]

I've got a better understanding of it now.

I can understand not wanting to be blunt about we are doing, but that's what it took cut through the fog of politics.

It's pretty obtuse (beyond the generals) really. I'm a bit of a PoliSci nerd, have spent hours reading this stuff and still don't feel confident in speaking about many of the specifics (partly because of how many of them change, but I know there are those who are far better versed than I )

 

[Anti Federalist]

Sorry, I wasn't talking about you specifically. I was talking in broad terms. Most people don't understand how delegates work.

No worries at all, I've got the plan now.

 

[Anti Federalist]

It's pretty obtuse (beyond the generals) really. I'm a bit of a PoliSci nerd, have spent hours reading this stuff and still don't feel confident in speaking about many of the specifics (partly because of how many of them change, but I know there are those who are far better versed than I )

I know what you mean.

Me, I hate politics, criminal law is child's play compared to this.