First off, let me preface my points by saying that I totally understand our finite resources and if Bright goes up against Graham I think that would be a more worthwhile effort (if we can only pick one) because it's an unquestionable red state and taking out the scumbag would boost moral through the roof as well as send a shocking message in regards to our movement's growing influence and strength. I can't speak on LFA's part as they have hinted their interests in funding both JAmash and the primary opponent to Mitch (which I disagree with).
Regarding MI in 2014, yes the unions will be doing all they can to defeat republicans from top to bottom but it's not as if the republicans will sit idly by and allow their majorities to go up in smoke. Despite my lack of enthusiasm for our current chair, the man can raise absurd amounts of money plus it's rumored that Devos will be dropping some serious coin up here on our behalf. While you constantly hang on to nostalgia by regurgitating your mantra of the past 50 years of Senatorial success (or lack thereof) by republicans, the state has gradually changed over that time especially during my lifetime. Detroit was once a booming metropolis yet now it can be defined as just a big city w/ no where near the staying power it once had in terms of inner city votes or importance. The way that city has been ran into the ground actually entices suburban opinion to defer to the Governor as far as attempting to get the city's budget in order and he knows this. As the city has been depleted in revenue, size and population its affect on the state's political body has diminished by half or more over the last 10-15 years. Now, the state senate has a republican majority 26-11 as does the state house 59-51 despite Obama's reelection efforts and Stabenow's manhandling of Hoekstra.
I will grant that prez years here feature democratic strength over republicans and I'm not sure if that's due to lack of excitement in the republican isle for their statewide candidates or perhaps it's that coupled with the incumbent reelection rates. Although I didn't expound on this as much in my original post I have mentioned the midterm dynamics in other threads about JAmash's chances. My main concern is the likely primary but if there's more than 2 people running JAmash would fare well as his supporters would be uniting and the remaining block would be split. Rogers is strong in the state central area, Miller is fairly well known yet watching her speak is about as exciting as folding socks yet both could raise decent amounts of money. Of course, so could we over and above the PACs. Alone, he raised over a million just for his reelection and that could easily be doubled at least or more. Hoekstra and his people may have spent $5mil against Stabenow but quite frankly no amount of money could rescue him from the conservative/libertarian defection let alone be enough to take on an entrenched incumbent in a presidential year.
As I've stated in other threads, the 2010 gubernatorial election turnout was ~3.25 mil and the 2012 prez election turnout was ~4.7 mil plus whatever Johnson, the Greens, CP, Natural Law got and we'll never know the RP write-ins. No matter the GOTV efforts by either side in 2014, the midterm turnout will most likely mirror the 2010 turnout in a similar fashion with perhaps an extra 100k or so. The dems' problem is that they need to come up with 2 top notch candidates to take on Snyder and retake the open Senate seat yet all I've seen in the rumor mill is back benchers that have a lot of heavy lifting to do to even mount a respectable showing. JAmash is on equal footing if not better than any dem they throw up since he has nationwide donors outside of PACs. Despite the RTW issue and the unions' pumping up their chests, they got their ass handed to them as they spent a fortune pushing the two recent ballot proposals to institutionalize collective bargaining for private and public workers into the state constitution and got waxed even tho Stabenow won big and Obama did well meaning that over 500k dems (~20% of all dem voters) voted against the unions. So, with this in mind, lower midterm turnout, undoubtedly this election favoring republicans nationwide and usually the GOP fares well in recent times in MI in midterms I'd say that this will be a republican grab when you factor in the Governor's reelection efforts. Not to mention, the conservative/libertarian grassroots comprised 48% of the republican party per its recent state convention if we take the state chair race into account and that's with quite a few of our people either sitting out or non-committed for whatever reason. Also regarding this race, it took $300k to produce the 52% turnout for the establishment with a mere $10k turning out the grassroots delegates. Even if we don't take this chair race into account, we went from having 0 on the state central committee to having 16/91 explicitly pro-liberty members with likely double or triple conservative-leaning members meaning that coalitions built in the state central body can be made against the establishment wing in the overall scheme of things thus showcasing a monumental shift in the landscape of the state party apparatus. So, a leaning republican midterm bolstered by a gubernatorial reelection against dem back benchers w/ a much more conservative makeup of the party itself coupled with a general dissatisfaction for establishment types brewing on the right and we have a perfect storm to win an open Senate seat w/ someone who the vast majority of the conservative grassroots could be excited by, unlike a Hoekstra. Plus, if Snyder and team have a brain in their head, they'd realize this excitement factor could only benefit them in their beneficial reelection status in a non-prez election.
I appreciate all the concerns people have about this race but I wanted to provide at least a semi-comprehensive examination of all the dynamics that come to mind in this race be it the midterm status, the inflated impression of what the dems can pull off here in said election, the growing influence of the grassroots in the state party as well as in all district parties across the state and the overall shift of the state from what it was once known overwhelmingly for. Yes, JAmash has a safe House seat but I'd say it would be hard to envision a better opportunity for the likes of one of our own to jump to the Senate under different circumstances. I'd venture to say that even the likes of Rogers or Miller could win this on the heels of the Governor's reelection but then we'll be stuck with the likes of another McCain or Graham here in MI thus minimizing any gains made out of SC. If JAmash doesn't run for this, whether the dem or rep win the seat they'll be entrenched for their reelection down the line and Stabenow ain't going anywhere anytime soon. Therefore, if JAmash sees what I see here on the ground he should go for it.
The best thing we can do is look at the poll numbers and go from there. If a bunch of high-powered Republicans or some very popular Democrats come out of the woodwork and many of the polls show Amash having little chance, it is time to cut our losses and leave Amash in the Senate. If the polls show him running competitively, then go for it. Levin retires and within a day, people are already calling others "naysayers" and tossing ad hominem attacks. Although I can't be mad at Kathy, who I must +rep once a week. Oh RPF, why do I love you so much?
