erowe1
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And in the last midterm elections, the statewide races, which didn't include US Senate, all went to the Republicans.
BREAKING: Carl Levin to Retire
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And in the last midterm elections, the statewide races, which didn't include US Senate, all went to the Republicans.
supermario21
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Little bit of history. This seat hasn't been open since a special election in 1952!
sailingaway
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I'd really like Amash. What is the timing on when he'd have to declare for the House?
Uriah
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I believe the filing deadline is May of 2014 with the primary in August. Someone from Michigan correct me if I'm wrong.
FSP-Rebel
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Itshappening, please stop spreading hysteria about the lack of potential to take this seat and hold it. Amash could easily win a general election because the dems have no one to turn to to take him on, not to mention it's a midterm in the last cycle for the current prez. Turnout is about 1.5 mill lower in off years and the gop here is working on their gotv apparatus to try and save the governor for reelection. They need Amash to bring Snyder the conservative and libertarian votes he'll need to win if the dems/unions are even remotely successful in their operations. Miller was the former sec of state and she did alright there but she's got no caliber to run for senate and she's perform badly with conservatives and libertarians. Amash has already been playing mums-the-word when asked about this but I guarantee last nights performance on the Senate floor by Rand nudged him to see the tide changes and all the notoriety Rand is getting. He's got PAC money lined up and solid endorsements ready to roll. If Rand coasts through this state on his behalf it's game over.
supermario21
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Spencer Abraham on the left, Justin Amash on the right.
It could work. Both are Arab-Americans which can play well in the Dearborn/Detroit area.
Christian Liberty
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Is that the world's smallest political quiz? How do they know how they scored? I scored 100 in favor of both econ and social liberty.
supermario21
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No, it's something on ontheissues which is much more complex than the world's smallest quiz.
itshappening
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Oh please. MI will never, ever send a small government conservative to the US senate so get over it. You only need to look at who they've elected for the last 50 years to see that and Amash isn't going to magically change the prevailing leftist bent and he has to give up his House seat to give it a shot and which he has worked hard to gain and is SAFE.
It would be the dumbest political move of the century.
supermario21
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I don't want to agree with you...but deep down I'm pretty sure you're right. Labor is going to be out in force in 2014 and that's what scares me most, not the overall bent of the state. But Amash is somewhat similar to Pat Buchanan, who would probably carry Michigan in terms of Reagan Democrats.
RP Supporter
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Much as I'd like to see a senator Amash, it will be very tough, and I'm not sure the risk is worth the reward. I don't think it's impossible. The Dems have a thin bench, and most of their big names are pretty old. And in a 2010 sort of environment, I think he would win, and the midterms of a second term president are almost always bad for the party in the whitehouse. That said, Obama remains reasonably popular, and it's hard to say if 2014 will have the sort of populist anger that would be needed to make a bluestate like Michigan competitive.
Not sure if this was posted, but PPP tweeted that Levin was beating Amash by 15 points. That's pretty decent I think, considering how long term Levin had been there. If we assume that any new Dem would not do that well, it's probably reasonably a single digit race. But making it competitive and winning are two different things. My advice to Representative Amash is to wait a few months, see what the fields look like, do some private polling, and see if this is a race that he can win. If it's not, it's better for him not to make the jump.
Not sure if this was posted, but PPP tweeted that Levin was beating Amash by 15 points. That's pretty decent I think, considering how long term Levin had been there. If we assume that any new Dem would not do that well, it's probably reasonably a single digit race. But making it competitive and winning are two different things. My advice to Representative Amash is to wait a few months, see what the fields look like, do some private polling, and see if this is a race that he can win. If it's not, it's better for him not to make the jump.
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I wouldn't go as far as saying that Michigan will never elect a small government conservative to the Senate, but it seems unlikely they will, and it doesn't seem worth the risk for Amash.
UtahApocalypse
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How many of you naysayers actually luve here in Michigan? How many here talk to Michigan residents daily and know what way the current political wind blows?
I do and can say its worth it. Not only worth it but likely victory. It will not be easy, but far from the impossibility some are making it. Honestly the primary would be more taxing then the general election.
I do and can say its worth it. Not only worth it but likely victory. It will not be easy, but far from the impossibility some are making it. Honestly the primary would be more taxing then the general election.
EBounding
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http://www.mlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2013/03/with_michigans_sen_carl_levin.html
Given that it's an open seat and given that the strongest Dem competitor right now is Doughy Peters, I'd say it's worth it.
I know some would rather have Justin keep his House seat, but the fact is, he's not going to influence the debate there unless we get a substantial number of other liberty representatives elected. Getting that many "liberty reps" elected is much less likely than Amash winning the Senate in Michigan, in my opinion. Rand has proven the power of the Senate even when he's the lone no vote. The primary worries though. I wish we had a caucus system.
Michigan does have an entitlement mentality, but it's not like its Massachusetts or anything. Justin could position himself as an independent and someone like Peters would be revealed as just Obama's lapdog.
Given that it's an open seat and given that the strongest Dem competitor right now is Doughy Peters, I'd say it's worth it.
I know some would rather have Justin keep his House seat, but the fact is, he's not going to influence the debate there unless we get a substantial number of other liberty representatives elected. Getting that many "liberty reps" elected is much less likely than Amash winning the Senate in Michigan, in my opinion. Rand has proven the power of the Senate even when he's the lone no vote. The primary worries though. I wish we had a caucus system.
Michigan does have an entitlement mentality, but it's not like its Massachusetts or anything. Justin could position himself as an independent and someone like Peters would be revealed as just Obama's lapdog.
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