BenIsForRon
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I see your point, but I think it is much more important that he goes full throttle now that he knows he is going to the general.
Bj lawson wins the primary!
- Thread starter Hamer
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I see your point, but I think it is much more important that he goes full throttle now that he knows he is going to the general.
NC isnt trending blue, NC is blue and solidly blue at that. The Republicans have held power in the state about twice since reconstruction. There are a lot of blue dogs who will break for a Reagan/Bush/Helms but thats where their loyalty ends.
NC4th district is solidly Democrat. Republicans get 35% every time. BJ broke that trend by getting a couple more points but he also did it in a year when every other Republican's vote dropped by 3 or 4 points due to the obama surge and the outpouring of black voters. If you take away the Republicans who refuse to vote for BJ i think BJ managed to turn possibly maybe as much as 7/8% of Democrats in the most progressively democrat district in NC.
In this election year with no one exciting at the top of the democrat ticket (the senate race is weak at best) the dems will be very apathetic. If BJ can get the GOP establishment to back him fully (which they didnt do in 2008) and he can solidify his base then he could easily break into the low 40s. If he raised 750K+ he could be in the margin of error for a seat that was gerrymandered entirely to make sure David Price never lost it again.
War, War, War will get BJ stripping off some very angry dems in NC4. He knows it as well. The only problem is many in the neocon base are dripping in false patriotism flag waving and blood and dont have a strategic bone in their body.
rancher89
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Make no mistake, BJ is smart, with a capital "S."
The tide is turning on the war sentiment, folks are coming back home and talking to friends and family about what's going on....and things are changing.
Iraq is a foregone conclusion, we are out of there....just a matter of months now, at most a year. (not soon enough for me, but I'll take it) Pakistan is another ball off wax. There just isn't the passionate backing for a war there like there was for Iraq. The die hard neo cons will never back down, but those who see the money being spent there instead of here.......well that's a convincing argument right now.
BJ will do a much better job than me presenting the facts of life to the dems and repubs.............bottom line, we need to not be spending money on infinite wars.
BenIsForRon
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Of course he'll have a phone bank.
I plan on knocking on some doors myself. I only live 3 hours away, and I have a lot of friends in the area I can stay with.
I plan on knocking on some doors myself. I only live 3 hours away, and I have a lot of friends in the area I can stay with.
By all means join the campaign (upper right hand corner): http://www.lawsonforcongress.com/
We'll get you phone banking.
Also, just things like sharing BJ's facebook posts on your facebook helps to get the word out. We're talking just one click here folks!
skyorbit
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He won't be fighting the Democrat/Obama tidal wave this time, turnout will be lower in a Mid-Term ellection (so a more informed electorate will be making the decision this year which is good for us.)
He's already got voter ID from last time of all his supporters so he'll have a better get out the vote campaign.
Lawson just needs to outspend his opponent by 3 times, and he'll be all right.
Honestly, Lawson and RAnd are the 2 I'm supporting in the General.
Tracy
He's already got voter ID from last time of all his supporters so he'll have a better get out the vote campaign.
Lawson just needs to outspend his opponent by 3 times, and he'll be all right.
Honestly, Lawson and RAnd are the 2 I'm supporting in the General.
Tracy
skyorbit
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750K Last time.
Lawson needs $3 Million for the General. He could win with that. If Lawson could raise the kind of money for the General, that Rand has raised in the Primary -- he'll be set. Let's face it, there's going to be a lot less of our people actually running in a General election. I think Rand and Lawson will be about it, so I think we could really fully fund them both.
Tracy
Lawson needs $3 Million for the General. He could win with that. If Lawson could raise the kind of money for the General, that Rand has raised in the Primary -- he'll be set. Let's face it, there's going to be a lot less of our people actually running in a General election. I think Rand and Lawson will be about it, so I think we could really fully fund them both.
Tracy
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If Rand campaigned for a senate seat with $3M, it seems to be it will be really hard for Lawson to raise anywhere close to amount for a House seat, unless he gets support beyond the Freedom Movement, like the RNC.
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aclove
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Forget about the RNC. Those bozos would never drop serious money on NC's 4th District, even if a rabid neocon like Roche had won instead of BJ. They just don't think it's worth the trouble, because they don't see it as "competitive." That basic lack of understanding of BJ's ability to pull independent and disaffected Democrat support means that we'll have to fund BJ purely through grassroots activity. It's vital that we sell BJ's candidacy to the NC Tea Party movement and to antiwar Democrats.
As always, we have to win in spite of the Establishment, not with its help.
As always, we have to win in spite of the Establishment, not with its help.
I thought so, too, but then I checked:
http://www.opensecrets.org/politicians/summary.php?cid=N00002260
http://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.php?cycle=2010&id=NC04
Lawson has about $31,000 as of April 14 and Price has $228,000. Anyone surprised that Price is funded by Lawyers and Law Firms along with Public Sector Unions? Even if Lawson has burned through his $31,000 and is at nothing, Price is still vulnerable. If you look at what Price has raised this cycle, it is anemic to say the least.
It is looking like Rand and B.J. along with Gunny will be all we have to worry about in November along with possibly one or two others. We should at least have those three funded. If B.J. and Gunny win, Gunny could work to protect Price's seat from gerrymandering.
GunnyFreedom a.k.a. Glen Bradley.
www.glenbradley.net He is running for an Open Seat for North Carolina State House. He is already in the general election.
wildturkey
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Also, Price was beaten in 94 during the "conservative" takeover. The mood now trumps that of 94 by leaps and bounds. He doesnt need money, he needs to speak a lot to anyone he can. Pure grassroots and a good message are going to win this one.
No, but Gunny would have a vote on the redistricting plan and could influence the leaders to gerrymander B.J. into a safe district for the next ten years. Since he will become an up and coming Republican, he will have some clout for taking back a seat held by a very liberal Democrat for many years.
Imperial: With all of the seats Democrats are defending, along with Price's history of lackluster fundraising, I doubt the big Democratic donors will burn their money on a "safe" district when there are tens of vulnerable seats they could lose. And, for whatever reason, North Carolina is turning on Obama/Democrats in a hurry according to Public Policy Polling. While Price will probably throw close to a million at this race, B.J. can pull it out. It will absolutely be difficult, but it is an easier path than some of the other candidates we are fielding.
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