I don't underestimate the influence. It's just that they've been trying to push him for a while and he just doesn't stick. He's all over Iowa and still has 4%.
A Bachmann resurgence is much more likely than Santorum.
I disagree that they've been trying to push him. Santorum has gotten little attention in debates, when compared to other establishment candidates. He polls low, the media really doesn't take a liking to him. And pushing him all along wouldn't make sense.
The GOP establishment's biggest problem is the Tea Party, which stormed the 2010 elections and has proved problematic for Republican leadership in Congress. Activists have been calling out Republicans as much as they do Democrats. What would be the solution to reel them in, while not risking their party control? The founder of the Tea Party Caucus and the self-described leader of the movement, Michele Bachmann. She was the first "flavor of the week", an attempt to throw a leash on the Tea Party movement.
But Bachmann failed, and so the next possibility to bring in the movement was Rick Perry. Perry was sold as a conservative and was generally accepted as one, as his dirt was not widely known. I can't tell you how many Republicans I saw absolutely go nuts over the idea of Perry entering the race. He was the alternative to Bachmann for the Tea Party.
Bachmann failed, Perry failed. What was next? A guy who not only sold himself as Tea Party, but was also African-American. So not only could he win the Tea Party, he could be a selling point to those who say the Tea Party or Republican Party is racist. Cain was less establishment than the previous two, but still establishment enough where the GOP doesn't have anything to lose in the event he wins.
Bachmann, Perry, and now Cain have failed. In a move of desperation, the establishment is going with the smooth-talking, intelligent Newt Gingrich. Although more establishment in then his predecessors, this "flavor of the week" can now hypothetically get away with some dirt, because the media unearthing his skeletons is seen as a vendetta, thanks to the Cain sexual harassment mess. Gingrich is standing strong still.
Newt won't survive however. And unless they come up with another roll of the dice, Mitt Romney is their guy. But Mitt Romney has shown from the beginning to be unable to unite the Party, or even expand beyond his base. His poll numbers, for the most part, have been paralyzed. Not moving up, not moving down.
The alternative? Rick Santorum. And Iowa is perfect for it, because you don't get much more religious than Iowa. Santorum is very religious.
You watch. Santorum will be the next "flavor of the week" and it'll happen right before Iowa. We haven't won this yet. It's not over until it's over.
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. Even Mitt Romney does not have a chance. Many/most Christians are going to stay home before they vote for a Mormon. Ya would think this would be obvious to the people behind the scenes. Or is it? hmmmmmm
