ARG Michigan Poll shows Ron up 3 points in 4 days

[SCOTUSman]

Michigan GOP Primary Poll from American Research Group

[TABLE="class: grid, width: 300"]
[TR]
[TD]Candidate[/TD]
[TD]2/15-16[/TD]
[TD]2/11-12[/TD]
[TD]Change[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Santorum[/TD]
[TD]37[/TD]
[TD]33[/TD]
[TD]+4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Romney[/TD]
[TD]32[/TD]
[TD]27[/TD]
[TD]+5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Paul[/TD]
[TD]15[/TD]
[TD]12[/TD]
[TD]+3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Gingrich[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]21[/TD]
[TD]-11[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Sample Size: 600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of likely Republican primary voters living in Michigan (380 self-identified Republicans, 179 self-identified independents, and 41 self-identified Democrats).Sample Dates: February 15-16, 2012
Margin of Error: ± 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split. An "*" in the tables indicates responses of less than 1/2 of 1 percent.
Question Wording:
If the 2012 Republican presidential preference primary were being held today between (names rotated) Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum, for whom would you vote?
Do you consider yourself to be a supporter of the Tea Party movement, or not?
Using a scale of 1 to 10, with 1 meaning that you will definitely not vote in the 2012 Republican presidential primary and 10 meaning that you will definitely vote in the 2012 Republican presidential primary, what number would you give as your chance of voting in the 2012 Republican presidential primary?

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2012/primary/rep/mi/

 

[Student Of Paulism]

Eh...well hey, at least we wont have to worry anymore about Newt World Order being Potus.

 

[digitaldean]

Lets hope if he disent win that he gets at least 15% to get some delegates.

 

[joshnorris14]

Lets hope if he disent win that he gets at least 15% to get some delegates.

Because Michigan was stripped half of their delegates, simply getting 15% won't get him any delegates (There are only 2 delegates up for proportional allocation).

He'll have to win 1 of the 14 Congressional Districts to get any delegates. And based on him going to Michigan for 3 days, that is a possibility. Likely in Dearborn or Grand Rapids.

 

[digitaldean]

Because Michigan was stripped half of their delegates, simply getting 15% won't get him any delegates (There are only 2 delegates up for proportional allocation).

He'll have to win 1 of the 14 Congressional Districts to get any delegates. And based on him going to Michigan for 3 days, that is a possibility. Likely in Dearborn or Grand Rapids.

Ok thanks for that information. I was only going by:

http://www.weeklystandard.com/sites/all/files/docs/2012 RNC Delegate Summary.pdf

 

[The_Ruffneck]

Like i said a couple weeks ago , Newt will drop out before super tuesday , his numbers everywhere are COLLAPSING.

 

[BUSHLIED]

noise...its about his national level of polling. just not enough to win. his latest speech in WA or maybe ID it was, WAS one of the best I've seen this 2012 cycle, unfortunately a little too late though....I think the campaign blew it by taking too many breaks etc...Ron is not going to suddenly get a surge, he has to work for every percentage point...not enough time or money. Everything is in the hands of the grassroots at this point. The movement is alive and well but the campaign..well that's another story. I hope to be surprised..

 

[SCOTUSman]

Hopefully Ron can get 20% statewide. Being open primary and with teh demographics, it is possible. If he can get 20% statewide he might win one or two CDs...Dearborn ad Grand Rapids....that could be 4 delegates....4 is better than none...

 

[joshnorris14]

Hopefully Ron can get 20% statewide. Being open primary and with teh demographics, it is possible. If he can get 20% statewide he might win one or two CDs...Dearborn ad Grand Rapids....that could be 4 delegates....4 is better than none...

More importantly than Ron getting 4 is that Mitt doesn't get those 4. Here's to an open convention.

 

[digitaldean]

Like i said a couple weeks ago , Newt will drop out before super tuesday , his numbers everywhere are COLLAPSING.

I think Newt staying in the race is better for Ron Paul. On Super Tuesday Newt will win at least 2-3 states that would of gone to either Mitt or Santorum. Out of their hands is better is better for Paul. But then again if Santorum gets to be the front runner and the other 2 drop out then I can not see people voting Santorum over Paul. The GOP knows Santorum has zero chance of beating Obama so by the convention Paul might come out on top. But you never know.

 

[noxnoctum]

Scary that Santorum is doing so well.

 

[123tim]

I think Newt staying in the race is better for Ron Paul. On Super Tuesday Newt will win at least 2-3 states that would of gone to either Mitt or Santorum. Out of their hands is better is better for Paul. But then again if Santorum gets to be the front runner and the other 2 drop out then I can not see people voting Santorum over Paul. The GOP knows Santorum has zero chance of beating Obama so by the convention Paul might come out on top. But you never know.

I think that you're exactly right. However, I think that the GOP is looking for the candidate who has NO chance of beating Obama.

They're not on our side.

 

[Liberty74]

Nothing to see here. Everyone has gone up equally while splitting the Newt implosion. Ron isn't moving up. I'll keep repeating, we need some type of event to happen to wake the people up such as runaway inflation, economic collapse, a government staged event, another war, etc.

And just like I said a month ago, the Newt scandal would work like this -----> The voters will rally around someone getting attacked then it takes 3-4 weeks for the scandal to sink in and people begin to leave in droves. That has been happening just like it did to Cain.

 

[rprprs]

Eh...well hey, at least we wont have to worry anymore about Newt World Order being Potus.

Something to be thankful for indeed.

The problem, of course, is that it has always been "us against them". When one of "them" drops out, the lion's share of their support lands with another one of the "thems".
A nasty catch 22 if there ever was one.

 

[Sematary]

How DOES Frothy poll so well with Republicans, especially? The man is absolutely a loose cannon and if he were to become the nominee, I would have to seriously consider voting for Obama just to double up on Frothy because I could NEVER countenance him being the president

 

[Liberty74]

How DOES Frothy poll so well with Republicans, especially? The man is absolutely a loose cannon and if he were to become the nominee, I would have to seriously consider voting for Obama just to double up on Frothy because I could NEVER countenance him being the president

Your typical registered Republican primary voter is old and religious. Ron has yet to address faith much less the older demographic. Plus it does not hurt that Rush and Beck are Santorum supporters who these voters no doubt listen to while these same talk radio hosts have smeared and lied about Ron and his policies.

 

[Sematary]

Your typical registered Republican primary voter is old and religious. Ron has yet to address faith much less the older demographic. Plus it does not hurt that Rush and Beck are Santorum supporters who these voters no doubt listen to while these same talk radio hosts have smeared and lied about Ron and his policies.

All you have to do is listen to him in a debate and you can only come to one conclusion - he's a complete nutjob.

 

[Drex]

WOAH! The grinch took a HUGE Hit

 

[Student Of Paulism]

Something to be thankful for indeed.

The problem, of course, is that it has always been "us against them". When one of "them" drops out, the lion's share of their support lands with another one of the "thems".
A nasty catch 22 if there ever was one.

Yep, that's usually how it always goes. as many have said here, Ron has been demonized by the msm so much that the sheepish type of voters just automatically assume he is radioactive and dont even pay him any mind.

I disagree with those saying Newt should drop out. He is going downhill quickly now and will drop out after ST or even before is a possibility. He is pure garbage and more people are realizing that and he makes Ron look good to those voters, and id rather him around as it would lift up Ron even more. The guy we wanted out of the way was Santorum, and sadly, he isn't going anywhere now and it's because he is seen by too much of the electorate as the anti-establishment candidate. He is pulling in support from pretty much every demographic, due to him campaigning lately with a better strategy than Ron, and WHERE he has been campaigning...doing Town Halls, taking questions, touching on healthcare a lot, and doing other things that Ron just doesn't ever go into enough. These are blatant facts and this is what makes him dangerous right now. If he wins both MI and AZ and takes like 3/4s of ST, you can put a bow on this race, cuz he would be the nominee hands down at that point. Sure, he will get shredded in the GE with Obama, and never have enough votes anyway, whether Ron runs 3rd party or not, but that is beside the point.

I really dont think people realize how much of a threat Rick is right now, and would rather keep downplaying it. The party doesn't want Romney, and never did, he is their emergency last resort. If something isn't done soon, either Ron going on the offensive, propping himself up in some way, or has some stellar debate on the 22nd (the final debate), Rick is the nominee.

 

[Forty Twice]

Romney has the overwhelming support of the 1% at the top of the RNC. He has endorsements of party big-wigs. He has the most financial support. If you look at OpenSecrets.org, you can search donors by company. If you work for a large company, odds are your employers' top execs and their wives have donated the $2500 max to Romney. Then you'll see a lot of $201 donations to Ron Paul by your rank and file co-workers. I think Romney has RNC support from up high. They have to do sneaky things to get Republican people to vote for him because he's such a putz.

I hope Gingrich gets more delegates at Santorum/Romney's expense. Santorum will definitely play the good soldier at convention time and give his delegates to Romney in order to avoid a brokered convention. Gingrich may hold such a grudge against Romney that he won't. Need to have 50% of 1st round delegates who won't vote for Romney just to avoid brokered convention.

Shel Adelson just gave Newt $10MM more. Could that be to temper Santorum's rise in polls? To help Romney? Newt and Santorum seem to have the same fans.

After all this crappy treatment from Republican party, I think Ron should switch to 3rd party run once he's placed his people in good position throughout the state Republican parties. I'm definitely not voting for any of the other Republicans in November.